2 hands from today I need help with. $400 NL

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9 handed $400 NL. My table image is TAG if any of the players are actually paying attention.

1)

I'm LP with K /images/graemlins/heart.gif K /images/graemlins/spade.gif.

Moderately tight player opens UTG for $20.
Hero reraise to $50 from LP.
Everyone else folds.
UTG reraise to $90.
Hero reraise to $180.
UTG moves AI and has me covered.
I have $250 left at this point.

Easy fold?

2)

I open UTG with Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif Q /images/graemlins/club.gif for $12
MP calls.
Button calls.

Pot ($42)

Flop T /images/graemlins/spade.gif 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Hero ($600) bets $25.
MP ($450) min-raises to $50.
Button pushes for $103.

Hero?

[Heimdal]

1)When UTG makes it 90 just call. When you reraise he folds worse hands and calls/raises with AA. And his threebet looks a lot like AA/KK.
After he moved in, there is 610 in the pot and it's 250 to call. 2.44-1 pot odds.
It sure looks like he has AA. The math has been done in another post. You need to be more than 80% certain that he has AA to fold. I think he has AA more than that.
But do you like putting almost ½ your stack in preflop with KK, with the intention of folding to a push?
If you know he has AA the EV of calling is -$78. Calling now is not a huge mistake.


2) Raise bigger preflop (or limp in). And make a bigger flop bet.
A poster on this board says, that when you are miniraised (especially mini check raised) on flop you are very often against a monster. He is probably right.

[Big_Jim]

Hand 1:

Your 4 bet is pretty bad. It gives over-agro <QQ an easy fold.

Against an unknown villian, it's almost certain that you are up against AA or KK here, and you have two Ks. There's ~$610 in the pot, and it costs you $250 to call, so you're getting about 2.4:1 on this call.

Let's assume that villian has KK 5% of the time, and that it will be a split when he does. Let us also assume that villian would not make this move with AK.

Warning: I have screwed up on a few of my recent math posts.

x = times out of 100 that villian has AA.

KK = 5 * 305 = 1525
AA: x * (1/4) * $610 - x * (3/4) * $250 = -35x
QQ: (95 - x) * (3/4) * $610 - (95 - x) * (1/4) * $250 = 37525 - 395x

1525 - 35x + 37525 - 395x = 39050 - 430x

x = 39050/430 = ~91%

Given these assumptions, you have to be over 90% sure that he has AA to fold.

Against many players, I think that you CAN be this sure, and should fold, but if there's any chance he's making a move, it turns into a call.


Hand 2:
First off, I like to raise more PF.
Second off, I like to bet more on the flop.

Given the action, I think I put the button on a draw or a top pair kind of hand, and would definately want to see a river if it was just him in the pot.

The problem here MP. He min-raised your weak flop bet, so it's hard to know what the hell he has. What does his min-raise tell you? That is the key to this hand. if it's weak, re-raise $200. If it means two pair or better, just let it go. Against an unknown.... toss a coin. If you fold, you at least get to see his hand, and know what his min-raise means next time.

In hand 1, how do I play it post flop if I smooth call the $90? He's going to bet out no matter what hits, but let's assume all undercards come and he fires out $120 (pot now $180ish), what's my move?

Hand 2. The quote about "minraise = monster" is exactly what went through my mind in this hand as I had read it recently on here. I figured it likely button either had a good draw or 9 10, so between him and MP I figured one of them had me beat so I laid it down. As it turns out Jim was dead on about button as he had Q 10 and MP had 88? I don't understand that play by him with 88. I felt sick about that one.

[Big_Jim]

[ QUOTE ]
In hand 1, how do I play it post flop if I smooth call the $90? He's going to bet out no matter what hits, but let's assume all undercards come and he fires out $120 (pot now $180ish), what's my move?

[/ QUOTE ]

I I push all in. This way, at least you get more money from QQ.

[ QUOTE ]
As it turns out Jim was dead on about button as he had Q 10 and MP had 88?

[/ QUOTE ]
Damn right.

Sucks to fold the best hand here, but at least you know that his min raise is crap. Make a note of it. Notes like this are far more valuable than knowing somebody's VPIP.

[Raven]

A min-raise against a preflop raiser is also often made by a player who have a good but not great hand and want to know where he is against a continuation bet.

The short stack who went all-in mean a lot of hands, and you beat most of them I think.

So when It come back to you the pot size is around 200 $, a push is a pot-sized reraise and I would seriously consider doing it.

[flawless_victory]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm LP with K /images/graemlins/heart.gif K /images/graemlins/spade.gif.

Moderately tight player opens UTG for $20.
Hero reraise to $50 from LP.
Everyone else folds.
UTG reraise to $90.

[/ QUOTE ]
instafold.

[ QUOTE ]

I open UTG with Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif Q /images/graemlins/club.gif for $12
MP calls.
Button calls.

Pot ($42)

Flop T /images/graemlins/spade.gif 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Hero ($600) bets $25.
MP ($450) min-raises to $50.
Button pushes for $103.


[/ QUOTE ]
instafold.