LetYouDown and Aaron would you have time to comment.

[VivaLaViking]

Would you have time to comment on the conclusions reached in the post "Question for the whizes" so nobody is misled?

Outs for a 3-flush (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=3223868&page=0&view=c ollapsed&sb=5&o=14&vc=1)

and

Outs for 3 cards to a straight. (http://http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=3224122&page=0&view=c ollapsed&sb=5&o=14&vc=1)

[LetYouDown]

I don't see any fundamental, glaring flaws. Granted, you have to consider that your "outs" might not be good...but if you're only concerned with making the hand, it seems ok.

[AaronBrown]

The link to the straight post is broken, but I read the flush.

The math is right, but I prefer to think about it a little differently.

For the three flush on the flop, you need both of the remaining cards to be drawn from a set of 10. That's 10*9/2 = 45 combinations. If you had instead a hand like trips, where you want either of the remaining cards to be drawn from a set of 1, that's 46 combinations, since the card you want can be paired with any of the 46 other cards. So these two events, fill the flush or get quads, have roughly the same probability.

The advantage of this logic is it handles more complicated situations. If you have 10-J-Q after the flop, with the other two cards 7 or below, there are 8 cards you could get on the turn (9 or K) that give you 8 outs on the river and 8 cards (8 or A) on the turn that give you 4 outs on the river. 8*8/2 + 8*4/2 = 48, which is roughly one out.

If you instead have Q-K-A, there are 8 cards (J or T) that give you 4 outs, and nothing else. 8*4/2 = 16, or about one-third of an out.

[VivaLaViking]

Thank you and undoubtably you are correct but I need simple things for simple minds. Thanks again. I just didn't want to mislead anyone.

All right, I haven't been posting here too long, but I've noticed that I handle probabilities differently than AaronBrown and LetYouDown, who are clearly the authorities around here. So my apologies if I'm repeating something.

The math that you're using looks kind of familiar; some combinatorics stuff, the basics of which I covered in University. So I can pick up on most of your logic, but I think you'd agree that it's usually a little more complicated than the way I've always done it; that being, for instance, I have three outs going to the turn, so I've got a 3/47 chance of hitting.

What would you call your method? How does it differ from mine? What would you say are the advantages of each? I see this in your post somewhat, because you're referring to "the advantage of this logic", but I'm not quite following. It seems like we often arrive at very similar conclusions.

Sorry to bring it back to basics here, but I'm quite curious.

[LetYouDown]

We're hardly authorities around here. We just tend to post more often than anyone else. I'd say the "authority" around here is BruceZ certainly, along with pzhon/gamingmouse for the really difficult questions. Aaron has me trumped for sure in most, if not all departments. I just tend to throw out my thought process more often than most.

Your approach for immediate odds is fine (meaning, the odds that the next card will improve your hand). Typically, the more complicated scenarios revolve around more than one thing occurring, and/or one outcome affecting another. As a trivial example, the probability of hitting a flush on the turn after a four flush on the flop is 9/47. If you hit the flush, the odds that another flush card comes on the river is decreased. If you don't hit the flush, the odds that you hit the flush on the river go up slightly. You can also run into situations where you'll double count the times you hit on both the turn and the river.

[VivaLaViking]

If I might add to TurnYouDown's post. Mathmatical pursuit is fine but that post was geared at a method to evaluate your poker hand while your sitting at the tabe; and do it fast enough to allow you time for the many other things you must do simultaneosly. You really don't have time for the mathematics, at least I dont, so using outs is the easiest way for me and most other players. Surprisingly, when I watch the WPT on TV I come within a point of the under hands probabilty percentage.