Bankroll and moving up limits

[K-mac]

I know this has been discussed, and i have used the search button and found some great info, but i was wondering if anyone can point out any flaws in my logic here.

If one were to have a bankroll of 150 and play at the .25/.50 tables (roll of 300 bb) and average 1 bb/100 hands played, would it be safe to say that after 30,000 hands on average this player should be able to move up to the next limit (.5/1.00)
Here is my math:
for every 1000 hands played on average you should show a profit of 5.00 (or 10 bb) if i multiply that by thiry i have 150 in profit after 30k hands.
Adding that to the player's original bankroll i have 300 which is the 300 bb to move to the next level.

Am i way off here?
And im sorry if this is a very, very basic question.

[numeri]

I'm not sure the discussion of how many hands it takes is pertinent. You can quickly increase your roll using bonuses, but that doesn't mean you should move up.

roll + confidence = move up

Both "roll" and "confidence" are necessary (but not sufficient) conditions.

[jrz1972]

If you only average 1 bb/100 at .25/.50, you should never move up. Once your skills have progressed a bit, you should be able to crush this limit.

[KingOtter]

[ QUOTE ]
I know this has been discussed, and i have used the search button and found some great info, but i was wondering if anyone can point out any flaws in my logic here.

If one were to have a bankroll of 150 and play at the .25/.50 tables (roll of 300 bb) and average 1 bb/100 hands played, would it be safe to say that after 30,000 hands on average this player should be able to move up to the next limit (.5/1.00)
Here is my math:
for every 1000 hands played on average you should show a profit of 5.00 (or 10 bb) if i multiply that by thiry i have 150 in profit after 30k hands.
Adding that to the player's original bankroll i have 300 which is the 300 bb to move to the next level.

Am i way off here?
And im sorry if this is a very, very basic question.

[/ QUOTE ]

I did a similar calculation when I was setting a goal handcount for myself for the summer, moving from .5/1 to 1/2.

Your math is right that 30k hands, at 1BB/100 = $150, and added to current bankroll gives $300, or 300BB at .5/1, if that is what you're asking.

KO

[KingOtter]

[ QUOTE ]
If you only average 1 bb/100 at .25/.50, you should never move up. Once your skills have progressed a bit, you should be able to crush this limit.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was tempted to say something like this, as well. But I gave myself 1.5BB/100 when I was setting my goals. If this guy is trying to figure out how long, or how many hands at most it'll take to move up he's probably underestimating his winrate.

Also, the other thing I thought of is that the difference between .25/.50 and .50/1 is probably rather slim (I played .25/.50 on Paradise a long time ago, and don't really recall), and so there isn't a whole lot of 'learning' that 'needs' to be done at .25/.50 vs. .50/1.

Just my opinion, anyway.

KO

[Reqtech]

Typically your opponents get tougher as you move up. 1BB/100 at .25/.5 is not very good for that level. It should at least be above 2BB if not 3 IMO.

That being said, I only played in the nano limits to help me get the fundamentals of poker down for maybe a 1000 hands before starting at .5/1 at Party. Bankroll for that level is fairly trivial ($100 initial buyin - which is taking wifey out to dinner twice).

[KeysrSoze]

Its fine, if you were actually sure you could win at that level, but with only 1bb/100 at the last level you might not be a winning player at the next. Now it you were clipping along at 3+ bb/100 and you built your roll up to 300BB for the next level, then I might take a shot, move back down if you lost 100BB or so, rebuild and get more experience, repeat.

[hemstock]

If you average 1bb at .25/.50 then the rake will be a relly huge factor for the next level.

[aces_dad]

What is your end goal here with respect to moving up?

If it's purely for money you'll make the $150 much faster playing bonii at .5/1.

If it's for better poker your goal of 1BB/100 is not agressive enough. At the micros (not sure of the rake at your limit) 3BB/100 is commonly deemed the benchmark of 'beating' the game.

I just don't see planning to play 30k hands at .25/.50 to make $150 doing much for you either way.

[K-mac]

No real 'point' to the question i just wanted to see if my reasoning was right. I didnt know how long it should take to move up limits. Based on what i have seen posted (a decent winrate being 1bb/100) i applied that winrate to see what goes into it.
My goal for right now is to grow my bankroll and move up limits (as for just how high i would eventually like to play, who knows).

[aces_dad]

I wouldn't call 1BB/100 at these limits a good winrate, you should strive to do better than this.

And if you're serious about moving up, I don't think you need more than 10k at .25/.50 (if you're at 3BB/100 or more), before moving to .50/100.

[K-mac]

i dont see .50 per 100 hands played a good win rate either. I guess i was applying win rates for much higher limits to micro stakes.

[nomadtla]

Yeah the norm for higher stakes is 1 BB/100 or 1 per hour depending. I think a decent player can easilly get the roll from 150-300 playing .25/.50 in 10K hands. I did 150-300 in 3.5K once I switched to a better site (was only break even at previous). I think I'm running hot though at 9BB/100 so I'm gonna stick to .25/.50 till at least 5K and see what kinda winnrate I have then. Should I go till 10K?

[DavidC]

You need $150 more than you have.

That's 300 bb at your current level.

You make 1bb/100 hands.

You make 3bb/300 hands.

You make 300bb/300*100 hands (30k).

Yes, you're right, but once you start working with BB, don't go back to working with cash. It's too ackward when you're considering going from say 15/30 to 20/40. or 2/4 to 3/6.

---------------

Now... keep in mind that playing 30k hands will not necessarily get you there: you could run bad.

Alternatively you could run great and be ready by tomorrow.

However, you may choose not to go to the next level tomorrow, even if you have the cash, because you might not feel you're ready.

Anyways, good luck.

Your math turned out to be correct, but you made it a little too tough on yourself.