Let's try this again, Super Tuesday near bubble hand

[DarrenX]

Just moved to the table a couple hands previous, so no reads yet, but no one should have a bead on me either.

180ish left, 140 pay from original 1121. 150/300 blinds, average a little above 6000.

Folds to small blind with 5000ish who raises to 1200. I have Axo in the BB with 3800- lacking reads/images, how big does x have to be in order to go over the top here?

[Lloyd]

First of all, and slightly off topic, I have rarely seen a poll that provides any useful information and you should be more concerned with the thought process than the magical answer.

Second, you're not really close to the bubble. You are 40 people away and that could easily take several orbits to get to. With a stack of just over 12 BBs you should definitely be looking to accumulate chips.

The SB could be raising with a wide range of hands. I don't think you have much folding equity here at all as pushing gives him almost 2 to 1 odds to call. So he might fold some of the hands on the back side of the range, and certainly any pure bluffs, but there's a good chance you're getting called.

If you fold, you have 3500 chips left. If you call and win you'll have a stack of 7600. It's pretty easy to see what equity you need for it to be a neutral decision. 3500/7600 = 46%. So if your hand is a 46/54 dog to his range it's a neutral decision. So we need something better than that since you shouldn't call off all your chips when there is no positive expectation. How positive we need is certainly open to debate. I would say if the EV of calling is greater than about 4000 you should call. 4000/7600 is 53% equity which would require A8/A9 or better. If you had a larger stack (particularly if you had him covered) the answer would change to include even smaller Xs due to the increased folding equity.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
4000/7600 is 53% equity which would require A8/A9 or better.

[/ QUOTE ]

umm.......... wanna let us in his secret range?

i think that there is a decent amount of FE here, especially given that we're near the bubble (so hero should be stronger than average, SB should be tighter to RR than average).

i think villain is raising a lot of hands here (not sure what to make of the 4x open), so A2 is not in bad shape. given that virtually every fold SB makes is good for us (except the rare 2x), all of the FE is beneficial.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]

i think villain is raising a lot of hands here (not sure what to make of the 4x open), so A2 is not in bad shape. given that virtually every fold SB makes is good for us (except the rare 2x), all of the FE is beneficial.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem is that A2 is totally crushed by his call range.

I would rather resteal with 98s than A2o.

In the poll, I voted for 8-9 FWIW; the difference matters mostly because because of the small PP calls but also the times you see A5-A7 call here.

[DarrenX]

[ QUOTE ]
First of all, and slightly off topic, I have rarely seen a poll that provides any useful information and you should be more concerned with the thought process than the magical answer.

[/ QUOTE ]

But I like Magic... ever see Penn & Teller? They're COOL... /images/graemlins/smirk.gif Seriously- I was looking for an intuitive answer, then I figured you math-oriented posters would help out with the other side.


[ QUOTE ]
Second, you're not really close to the bubble. You are 40 people away and that could easily take several orbits to get to. With a stack of just over 12 BBs you should definitely be looking to accumulate chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

"Near" is the operative word here. Just trying to give an idea of timing in the tourney. Either way, thanks for the response.

[z32fanatic]

Don't you think there is a better chance he has KJ or KQ and calls than Ax? We have one of the Aces in this situation so it is far less likely that he has one. I think he calls with KJ and KQ here. I get what you're saying about not wanting to be dominated, but I think I might rather have Ax in this situation. Thoughts?

[Lloyd]

When I ran the numbers I used any pair, any Ace, any King, QJ-Q9, JT-J9, T9, suited connectors down to 54s. Maybe he folds 10% of those hands??? I know if it was me getting 2 to 1 odds I'd be calling with almost all of them. Even 54s is better than a 2 to 1 dog against any pair, any Ace, any 2 Broadway. Even assuming a 10% fold rate we still need about 51% equity to make this worthwhile so our X doesn't drop much - maybe A7.

[schwza]

i'd say he calls:

any pair, A5+, K7+, QT+

people don't like risking a ton of chips near the bubble. incidentally, i wonder how a2 and 98s do against that range. i'd guess 98s wins by a little, but not poker stove at work.

[durron597]

9s 8s is dominated in neither situation. However A2o is crushed in the second. If I'm going to be called I'm behind in both cases a lot of the time, so I'd rather have a reasonable chance of sucking out.

Now, if you start adding middling kings and QJ etc. to his call range then I like A2o more.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1175424
pokenum -h 9s 8s - kd jc
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9s 8s 687316 40.14 1014552 59.25 10436 0.61 0.404
Jc Kd 1014552 59.25 687316 40.14 10436 0.61 0.596

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=179423
pokenum -h as 2h - kd jc
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As 2h 978437 57.14 725923 42.39 7944 0.46 0.574
Jc Kd 725923 42.39 978437 57.14 7944 0.46 0.426

---------------------------------------------------

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1175427
pokenum -h 9s 8s - ad 7c
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9s 8s 802724 46.88 903296 52.75 6284 0.37 0.471
7c Ad 903296 52.75 802724 46.88 6284 0.37 0.529

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=270039
pokenum -h as 2h - ad 7c
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As 2h 403266 23.55 824364 48.14 484674 28.31 0.377
7c Ad 824364 48.14 403266 23.55 484674 28.31 0.623

[durron597]

schwza, I think that range is kinda wide, but against that range:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 60.8209 % [ 00.60 00.00 ] { AA-22, AKs-A5s, KQs-K7s, QJs-QTs, AKo-A5o, KQo-K7o, QJo-QTo }
Hand 2: 39.1791 % [ 00.39 00.00 ] { 98s }

---

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 58.2014 % [ 00.55 00.04 ] { AA-22, AKs-A5s, KQs-K7s, QJs-QTs, AKo-A5o, KQo-K7o, QJo-QTo }
Hand 2: 41.7986 % [ 00.38 00.04 ] { A2o }

[schwza]

thanks for running that. in retrospect, i agree i'd be pretty surprised to get called by QT or K7. what's your range?

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
thanks for running that. in retrospect, i agree i'd be pretty surprised to get called by QT or K7. what's your range?

[/ QUOTE ]
I think QT might very easily call here. We have to put the hero on a range of hands to push with and figure out how that hand measures up. We need just a tad over 2 to 1 odds to make a call justified and QT and K7 have to be at least that good against the range of a typical player in the BB. If the BB hadn't been defending his blind much then I guess I'd tighten up the range a bit and call with fewer hands.

[schwza]

keep in mind also that

a) bad players don't know how to look at pot odds rationally
b) bad players go to far to avoid bubbling

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
keep in mind also that

a) bad players don't know how to look at pot odds rationally
b) bad players go to far to avoid bubbling

[/ QUOTE ]
Who said that the villain was a bad player?