Very interesting hand (with reads)

[45suited]

Villain had pushed pre-flop 2 times in the last 11 hands (he was a short stack before this point). One of the pushes before this pre-flop raise was also from UTG. On two out of the 11 hands, he raised ~5 x BB pre-flop. This was the only hand shown down over that 11 hand stretch that included 2 raises and 2 pushes:


Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 6: HERO ( $945 )
Seat 1: zgnilek ( $2411 )
Seat 9: icall2river ( $620 )
Seat 10: nickers1 ( $1699 )
Seat 5: tuugrumpy ( $2325 )

Blinds(25/50)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ 5h 6s ]
icall2river raises [275].
nickers1 folds.
zgnilek folds.
tuugrumpy is all-In [2300]
HERO folds.
icall2river is all-In [345]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 6d, 2s, Tc ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Qc ]
** Dealing River ** [ 7d ]
icall2river shows [ Ts, Kh ] a pair of tens.
tuugrumpy shows [ Ac, Js ] high card ace.


The hand prior to my hand below (the 4th raise out of the 11), villain raised to t275 from UTG+1 and was not called. So this hand was his 5th pre-flop raise in the last 12 hands:


Total number of players : 5
Seat 6: HERO ( $995 )
Seat 1: zgnilek ( $2236 )
Seat 9: icall2river ( $1290 )
Seat 10: nickers1 ( $1824 )
Seat 5: tuugrumpy ( $1655 )

Blinds(25/50)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ 8c 8h ]
icall2river raises [250].
nickers1 folds.
zgnilek folds.
tuugrumpy folds.
HERO.......

With the past 11 hands as background, what is your play?

Push, fold, stop-n-go? And why? I think that this is an extremely interesting spot, and I'd like to get some discussion going...

[downtown]

Interesting situation. I push, though I can see arguments otherwise. But yeah, I push, and here's why. This guy wants to build a stack / is hyper aggro / whatever. He is going to make your life miserable if you get to the bubble and he has a big stack - he's going to push when you're in the blinds, and acting behind you he's going to call with such a huge range (I'm guessing based on the K 10 hand) that it's going to make it harder for you to push. I like to be the boss of the bubble and be the first one in where I can, and this gives you at least a decent shot at taking 1st IMO. The counterargument is that the blinds are admittedly still small here, and you could get away with folding and waiting for a better spot. Anyway, it's close but I push here and would be interested in others' responses.

[jt1]

I push. Hero will call your stop & go and a push gets BB out for sure.

I can't imagine folding since you may have the dude dominated (AXs or a smaller pair) and even if you don't, it seems to me that you need to take the good doubling up opportunities when you have them.

[Rduke55]

I like the stop-n-go.
He has already shown he'll call PF with crap like KT and presumably he probably has a coinflip situation here. Take the turn and river away from him (unless an 8 falls of course).

[jt1]

[ QUOTE ]
Take the turn and river away from him

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't you'll think he'll call the flop push with 2 overs and maybe even with just 1?

[stupidsucker]

It is my experience that players that over agro on hands like KT do not play big pairs the same way. If others disagree then by all means I could be wrong here.

Of course he may know that I know that.
and
If I know that he knows that I know then I can assume he has AA.
If I dont know that he knows that I know that....
then
I dont know.
Sorry I couldnt resist...

I think it is close. So whatever you do I don't see it being detrimental. Since it is guaronteed HU I think Push is better. I believe he would play 22-JJ this way and he wont hesitate to call with those hands. I think he would play AA-QQ different.

[45suited]

I'm going to shamelessly bump this thread one time before I post the results. Come on people, not every situation can be run through a computer program with an answer wrapped neatly in a bow.

What would you do here given the last 11 hands?

[GtrHtr]

Push, fold, stop and go all depend on the blinds at this point. Very interesting hand thus far.

[Rob-L]

Well, I'm going to go against the grain here.

The blinds are still relatively low and it won't hurt you to take them. You're the low stack but not in critical danger. So, I say fold. Here's why...

Obviously, he's agressive - but given the one hand that was shown down, he's not suicidal either. I think in his mind, un-suited broadway cards (or perhaps even one broadway card) are good enough to raise with. That being the case, he could have something as small as JTo and you're only a slight favorite in what is a coin-flip situation.

In your situation, I'd like to have something stronger than a pair of 8's. I'd have to think he'd call if I went all in, and I don't like my chances vs. the large range of over cards he could have.

I don't think I'd even call here. If you miss the flop, your stack suffers and if there are any over cards on the flop you won't know where your at with this guy.

Fold and pick a better spot.

[tigerite]

Given the reads I'd push, but I think it is close. Sure he called the last time - with odds - but if you push his odds are much less (though he'll probably call anyway, there's at least that chance). If this time he's woken up with a monster, oh well, but you have to play back at him sometime, and if you don't, someone else will. 88 is reasonable against his raising range which appears to be top 40% with his recent actions. I think it's close but I'd have had enough of him and decided this was the time to take him on. Just my style though, others may differ.

[jon462]

I think push and stop n' go are the same. Just look at his name! He is obviously going to call 2 river!
:/

seriously, tho, I find stop and goes more effective here than str8 pushes. I call and push any flop not containing an 8.

[Freudian]

I am also leaning towards fold. We know this guy doesn't raise with any two. We also know he is likely to call the push with what he is holding. Do I really want to go for a coinflip in level 3?

I think a strong case can be made for sitting on the information and punish him later when the dead money is larger.

Besides, even donks get good hands at the same frequency as good players. It is far from a given your 88 isn't dominated. It is easy to get carried away when you think you figured someone out and you jump on any marginal chance to exploit it, only to have it blow up in your face.

I don't hate pushing here, but I think hero is not getting the +EV situation he thinks.

[Jonsan]

[ QUOTE ]
I think a strong case can be made for sitting on the information and punish him later when the dead money is larger.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am no poker god, but this seems like the best point made so far. You can feel confident this guy will pay you off when you know you hold the best hand. At 25/50, what's the rush?

Jon

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

It is a good read, but some wise 2+2er has recently taught me to be more patient and pick a better spot... I think that applies here. Also, Freudian, brings up a good point about punishing him later!

[Isura]

Interesting hand, when do the blinds go up?

Push and stop and go seem to be about the same against this guy, but push seems better. You don't want the BB to see all the money in there and push some marginal crap. And he might fold the flop with stuff like A3 or QT when he misses, but he won't fold preflop. You are much better than a coinflip against his range, more like 58%. People are saying you have a good stack and all that, but when the blinds go up you will be in push/fold mode, with icall2river 2 spots to your left. I would want to double up here, and have the chips to abuse the table around the bubble.

[45suited]

After going in the tank for a while, I pushed, with the reasoning that I am likely flipping coins, but since it was his 5th raise in 12 hands, I couldn't discount being up against something as bad as Ax either. I pushed knowing that I had zero FE. But I didn't think I'd have much FE with a stop-n-go either...

I was quite surprised to see him flip over TT.

The flop came 7-9-K and I was cursing myself for not at least pulling a stop-n-go.

Rivered an 8 to suck out.

I had to laugh to myself when the guy typed, "nice catch" though, in light of his crazy KT play several hands earlier.

In retrospect, I think the train of thought that the guy is loose enough that I can find a very +EV spot later is probably correct (still not sure, since I can't just get pushed off hands all day). I had plenty of chips relative to the blinds and I could have picked a way better spot against this guy. I don't think that I'm being results oriented, since I really didn't feel to good about the push at the time.

[45suited]

Hi Isura, the blinds were not set to go up very soon. We were maybe three hands into the level.

I think that any option here probably would not be too bad.

My thinking was the same as yours - I did not discount the very real possibility that I was far better than a coinflip. I think that I got unlucky that he had TT, then of course I got lucky to suck out.

I kind of look at it like the poker gods caught up to him. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

I fold.

A push or stop and go will almost certainly be called, and you are very likely in a coin flip situation with QTo or something. Without the normal FE in this situation, I wait for a better spot knowing that if I find a hand I can double up through this guy.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
Interesting hand, when do the blinds go up?

Push and stop and go seem to be about the same against this guy, but push seems better. You don't want the BB to see all the money in there and push some marginal crap. And he might fold the flop with stuff like A3 or QT when he misses, but he won't fold preflop. You are much better than a coinflip against his range, more like 58%. People are saying you have a good stack and all that, but when the blinds go up you will be in push/fold mode, with icall2river 2 spots to your left. I would want to double up here, and have the chips to abuse the table around the bubble.

[/ QUOTE ]

What range do you put him on to get 58%? I think it is way less.

[networkman]

[ QUOTE ]

In retrospect, I think the train of thought that the guy is loose enough that I can find a very +EV spot later is probably correct (still not sure, since I can't just get pushed off hands all day). I had plenty of chips relative to the blinds and I could have picked a way better spot against this guy. I don't think that I'm being results oriented, since I really didn't feel to good about the push at the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

When I'm playing my best I would fold this, theres still plenty of time and this guy will probably make your job easier.

[Rduke55]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Take the turn and river away from him

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't you'll think he'll call the flop push with 2 overs and maybe even with just 1?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think there's a better chance of this happening than him folding to a PF push.
Call off 3/4 of his stack when he still has 20BB with two overs and two cards to come? Then there's nothing you can do.