wierd bet

[lu_hawk]

I was just talking with a friend about tonight's yankee game and he said 'I will bet you the yanks win 9-3'. And I said ok lets put money on it and now he wants odds. Honestly I figure anything below 100-1 has got to be +EV but what do you guys think?

[youtalkfunny]

Make sure it's not a tape-delayed game.

[Josh W]

125 games so far, they've scored exactly 9 runs six times, and surrende red exactly 3 runs 20 times. So, assuming average probabilities (which is a close approximation), the chance of them winning 9 - 3 is:

(20/125) * (6/125) or about 0.75 in 100. So, yeah, 100:1 gives you a little edge.

Josh

[fingokra]

factor who is pitching in and that could change sign.