$109s - Is This An Autocall?

[Unarmed]

Villain has folded his last two SBs to me with a similar stack. UTG is my b*tch.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t5745)
SB (t915)
Hero (t2065)
UTG (t1275)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t915 (All-In)</font>, Hero calls t615.

[bluefeet]

Probably is regardless, even more so with UTG in the BB next...I'd call.

[schwza]

hmm... i'd fold. you're not getting much of an overlay in chipEV, so i'd guess -$EV.

[fnord_too]

~2:1, I call that with those stacks (and get berated when I give someone with AQo a "brutal beat". Man I love party poker.)

[ir0nphist]

It doesn't look like he's pushing just any 2 if he's been folding to you previously. Plus, since he's the short stack, on the bubble, pushing into the 2nd place stack. . . I think you have to give him credit for a decent hand..
So now that we figure to lose this call most of the time, where will it put you if you lose? You will go from 2nd stack to 4th, while being on the bubble, which is a tough position to be in. If you win, you'll still be 2nd stack.

It seems like there's a lot to lose here by calling, with little to gain.

[downtown]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain has folded his last two SBs to me with a similar stack. UTG is my b*tch.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t5745)
SB (t915)
Hero (t2065)
UTG (t1275)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t915 (All-In)</font>, Hero calls t615.

[/ QUOTE ]

My concern would be calling and losing FE for that player on my right who is currently my biotch. I call though, but it's close and not an autocall IMO.

[Phil Van Sexton]

autocall

[jdl22]

I was going to say autocall, but that was assuming he's going in with any two which seems not the case. Having UTG be your bitch I'm assuming means he's folding to your all-ins so folding and pushing next hand is a good play.

[BadMongo]

I don't think this is an autocall - in fact I'd be inclined to fold. You're getting better than 2:1, so a call is definately +cEV, however I'm not sure it is +$EV since most of the time your stack will be crippled. Your read that the SB is being too selective with his pushes is crucial here, as this significantly reduces your chances of winning. If he was pushing any two it would be an autocall.

[The Yugoslavian]

Your hand is just so pretty! /images/graemlins/blush.gif

I don't think it's a trivial call (and I would fold sometimes) but calling should be fine.

Yugoslav

[schwza]

you're getting slightly worse than 2:1.

[45suited]

I think it's a call.

People are missing that, even if you lose, UTG is your bitch, and you still will have a big enough stack to have FE when you push into him again.

[mosdef]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's a call.

People are missing that, even if you lose, UTG is your bitch, and you still will have a big enough stack to have FE when you push into him again.

[/ QUOTE ]

i guess some people feel that if you call with 56s, UTG is less likely to respect your subsequent pushes. whether that's true or not, i don't know. i would guess that it's not true.

[BadMongo]

[ QUOTE ]
you're getting slightly worse than 2:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oops, you're right. That makes me want to fold even more.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think it's a call.

People are missing that, even if you lose, UTG is your bitch, and you still will have a big enough stack to have FE when you push into him again.

[/ QUOTE ]

i guess some people feel that if you call with 56s, UTG is less likely to respect your subsequent pushes. whether that's true or not, i don't know. i would guess that it's not true.

[/ QUOTE ]

well, no one actually said that, but i would guess it has a small effect. when i see someone willing to call a push light, i tend to guess they'll push light.

that's not the reason i'm folding though. against Q8o, we're ~41.6% to win, and calling is +chipEV by about t150. and we're almost never better off than that, but sometimes we're significantly worse.

and i think we hate the gamble, as calling and losing puts us as short stack. right now, we are in a pretty good spot because even if we push and lose, we have some chance to get lucky and still cash.

[-Skeme-]

t150/t300 blinds? My math says you're getting 2.2:1 on the call, is this wrong?

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you're getting slightly worse than 2:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oops, you're right. That makes me want to fold even more.

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't been around much lately, but doesn't anyone use eastbay's tool anymore?

I don't have it here at work, so I can't really help. This is a call with any reasonable hand range for the SB, but don't take my word for it. Someone run the #s please.

[BadMongo]

I did the same thing as you. The push came from the SB, so there is only t1215 in the pot and its 615 to call. This gives about 1.98:1 odds.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
t150/t300 blinds? My math says you're getting 2.2:1 on the call, is this wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

1215 in the pot, 615 to call. like 1.95:1 or something.

[BadMongo]

OK, I ran the numbers, and it does look like a call, but not by much. If the SB is pushing the top 50% of hands, a call gives an EV of +0.2%. That's hardly an autocall though.

Compare this to calling if he is puashing any two, which gives an EV of +0.8%.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you're getting slightly worse than 2:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oops, you're right. That makes me want to fold even more.

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't been around much lately, but doesn't anyone use eastbay's tool anymore?

I don't have it here at work, so I can't really help. This is a call with any reasonable hand range for the SB, but don't take my word for it. Someone run the #s please.

[/ QUOTE ]

The only thing that is somewhat concerning is the SB doesn't seem capable of pushing as many hands as he/she should. However, I find it hard to believe that calling here can be very -EV vs. even very tight $109 players.

I don't have Easty tools at work either /images/graemlins/frown.gif.

Anyway, I call....I think it can be close as one plan for ITM can be to punish UTG if the big stack isn't very active on the next hand and likely get a walk in the next orbit.

Yugoslav

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain has folded his last two SBs to me with a similar stack. UTG is my b*tch.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a part of my game that I have altered recently.

The argument for calling is easy to make, and there aren't many hand ranges for the SB that would make this mathematically incorrect.

But, having the second biggest stack on the bubble when two players are playing incorrectly, as you imply above, is simply too big an advantage to piss away just because you have a bitchin' SNG tool kit.

I used to perseverate about this decision and reluctantly call. Now, I would quickly fold and win this SNG more than my "fair" 20% of the time.

Irieguy

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain has folded his last two SBs to me with a similar stack. UTG is my b*tch.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t5745)
SB (t915)
Hero (t2065)
UTG (t1275)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t915 (All-In)</font>, Hero calls t615.

[/ QUOTE ]

Small blind is not folding this time, so fold, save your chips, and take advantage or your b*tch on the next hand.
I can't believe how many people say autocall... I must have so much to learn /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[BigHobo]

[ QUOTE ]
The argument for calling is easy to make, and there aren't many hand ranges for the SB that would make this mathematically incorrect.

But, having the second biggest stack on the bubble when two players are playing incorrectly, as you imply above, is simply too big an advantage to piss away just because you have a bitchin' SNG tool kit.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Villain has folded his last two SBs to me with a similar stack. UTG is my b*tch.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a part of my game that I have altered recently.

The argument for calling is easy to make, and there aren't many hand ranges for the SB that would make this mathematically incorrect.

But, having the second biggest stack on the bubble when two players are playing incorrectly, as you imply above, is simply too big an advantage to piss away just because you have a bitchin' SNG tool kit.

I used to perseverate about this decision and reluctantly call. Now, I would quickly fold and win this SNG more than my "fair" 20% of the time.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]


I hear what you are saying, but you have him covered by 1050. You won't be eliminated here, and your opponents will continue to suck regardless of the outcome of this hand.

I like taking the $EV here, but with the backup plan of outplaying them with a shortstack.

Also, if you fold, you will only have 1765 (to their 1215 and 1275). It's not like your 2nd biggest stack is really anything to write home about. One could argue that 1765 and 1050 are both worth the same # of blocks. (Disregard that last sentence, I couldn't help myself).

[Uppercut]

I can't believe that calling here with a 6 high is a good move.

[Irieguy]

For those of you who read this hand and instantly think that calling cannot possibly be a good idea...

without cheating, write down how often you think AKo beats 5-6s.

I wish I knew how to do that cool "results in white" thing that everybody does.

Irieguy

[Jakob]

I would fold that for sure!

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]

without cheating, write down how often you think AKo beats 5-6s.

[/ QUOTE ]

When we're going HU in Vegas I'm pretty sure my 56s will win exactly 100% of the time.

Of course, normally AKo beats 56s like 20% of the time when I play Party STTs....stupid rigged piece of @#%$.

Yugoslav

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

[ QUOTE ]
For those of you who read this hand and instantly think that calling cannot possibly be a good idea...

without cheating, write down how often you think AKo beats 5-6s.

I wish I knew how to do that cool "results in white" thing that everybody does.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

I will guess 60:40 AKo wins. 65s has both flush and str8 possibilities, but 56s must improve to win, AK does not.

after writing the above I went to an internet poker calculator, and plugged it in... 59:41 AK wins, damn I am good /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

[ QUOTE ]

Of course, normally AKo beats 56s like 20% of the time when I play Party STTs....stupid rigged piece of @#%$.

Yugoslav

[/ QUOTE ]

yes this is true, I did not weight it for party poker play /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[ChrisV]

There's certainly nothing wrong with a call, but I'd fold. It doesn't sound like the big stack is putting any pressure on me (shortie has folded last two SBs to me...) and I can do better things with those chips than grind out my tiny $EV advantage with the call here.

[adanthar]

I fold because of what Irieguy said. However, it is incredibly close and I would actually call 98s or maybe even 87s simply because of the extra pair or two that is a coinflip thrown in.

[yabastid]

Ugh. This seems marginal given your reads. I fold. Even with your bitch in front of you, risking half your stack getting 2:1 with a 6 high suited connector doesn't feel right. Maybe I'm missing something here, but I fold.

[microbet]

Good post or something because it's a close decision.

It's close however much SB is your b*tch and I wouldn't necessarily make too much of that. Everyone draws a line somewhere and SB is probably getting there soon if not already.

[LotsOfOuts69]

[ QUOTE ]
For those of you who read this hand and instantly think that calling cannot possibly be a good idea...

without cheating, write down how often you think AKo beats 5-6s.

I wish I knew how to do that cool "results in white" thing that everybody does.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not even 58-42%, I remember checking it once a while back when someone told me it wasn't a big favorite over suited runners and I didn't believe them.