$109s - Push or Fold PT IV

[Unarmed]

Pushed last two hands. Blinds just increased. Table is pretty aggressive.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t1010)
SB (t3135)
BB (t1200)
UTG (t2220)
MP1 (t743)
Hero (t987)
CO (t705)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.

Two hands later.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP (t1010)
CO (t3060)
Button (t2130)
SB (t2070)
BB (t743)
Hero (t987)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif.

[bennies]

Fold 1, Push 2.

I guess pushing KJ is not so bad, but I wouldn't do it, especially since you just pushed twice.

[tigerite]

I believe it's +EV to push both whatever your opponents do, but it's close with the KJ one, so you can fold it if you prefer.

A9o is huge here and you must push.

[45suited]

I would actually rather push the first one than the second.

In the first hand, the only stack that can call you with impunity is the SB. And your position is better in the first hand.

In the second hand, you have to go through all the bigstacks and people lower their calling standards in the face of an UTG push.

I don't know if folding the second one is bad, but I would push the first, fold the second. (At a higher buy-in, I suppose that I might have to push the 2nd as well since my opponents can not be counted on to make ridiculously stupid plays if I'm a little patient.)

Another way that I might be able to justify folding the 2nd is that you have significant FE if you get to open push from the SB to the player on your left.

[schwza]

fold KJ. a9 is close, but i think i fold. if your image were better, i'd push.

[tigerite]

Believe it or not KJo is -$EV face-up here (not by much) and the A9o is +$EV to the tune of 0.6%, this even allowing for the short stack in the BB calling with 22+,A9+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,JTo

[The Yugoslavian]

I fold the first and push the second. A9o is quite strong when you only have ~6xBB and will be eating blinds.

Yugoslav

[WebGuySteve]

[ QUOTE ]
Believe it or not KJo is -$EV face-up here (not by much) and the A9o is +$EV to the tune of 0.6%, this even allowing for the short stack in the BB calling with 22+,A9+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,JTo

[/ QUOTE ]

I think these calling ranges are faaaaar too wide. I'm pushing both and happy I did /images/graemlins/smile.gif 22-66??? How often do you see BB calling with those here? Sure, every once in a while, but not often. KT is out, KJ i have seen people call with a lot recently, but I still don't see it real often. I like A9+. Qx and Jx should be eliminated. Ironically enough, I was cold called by JTs last night, but, I think those need to be taken out. Put that calling range in, and I think you'll see both of these pushes are +$EV.

Also, I tend to notice that when you're being the table bully, people let you get away with it moreso than if you're pushing...say 3 times every 2 orbits. Every push just gives you that much more FE.

[tigerite]

This is why I said "face up". I agree, which is why when it's +EV face up, it can't fail to be face down, too.

[WebGuySteve]

oops /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
This is why I said "face up". I agree, which is why when it's +EV face up, it can't fail to be face down, too.

[/ QUOTE ]

it depends on what you assume about your opponents. i'd be tempted to flip 66 face up when i'm pushing on the bubble, on the theory that then i could fold out AK, etc. and most bigger pairs are calling anyway.

do you mean that villains will call when it's +chipEV for them to do so, when they're ahead, what?

[networkman]

I have some trouble with situations like hand one, it's probably the weakest link in my game. I just can't decide without being at the table. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

Hand 2 I push, no matter how many times I've been pushing lately.

[puzzlemoney]

[ QUOTE ]
This is why I said "face up". I agree, which is why when it's +EV face up, it can't fail to be face down, too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Tigerite, you refer to a hand being good enough to push face-up enough for me to notice. You determine a hand's value "face up," I assume, by putting it up against a calling range that is comprised only of hands that are ahead preflop? Or am I misunderstanding your meaning?

Are you doing such calculations with eastbay's program, or by hand? Or is there another way of doing this that I'm unaware of?

[puzzlemoney]

Boy, can I kill a thread...

I'm still hoping for a discussion of the "pushing face up" idea, and how it differs from regular ICM calculations. Does it mean that opponents will call only if they're already ahead, or only if they have pot odds to win? Or does it mean that you're correct to push against a range of all possible hands?

[tigerite]

In my "model" they call if they have odds to based on how much it is compared to how much they can win - pure chipEV if you like - plus a bit for them calling with overcards to pairs. It's pretty easy really to work out..

[puzzlemoney]

So, do you figure out the calling range for opponents based on this model and then use that to do an ICM calculation to see if it's still worth it?

If so, do you eastbay's SNG Analyzer to do it? Am I correct in assuming that what you're essentially doing is inputting your range of pot-odds-plus-overcards hands as calling ranges and running a regular analysis?

Just kinda making sure I'm applying the whole ICM concept correctly...

[tigerite]

Yes, that's basically it.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Pushed last two hands. Blinds just increased. Table is pretty aggressive.


[/ QUOTE ]

By pretty aggressive, I assume that means, it isn't very likely to be folded to you in late position, and that mini-raises aren't respected? But, in the same thought, they aren't calling very loosely?

I may have over adjusted to these new frickin blinds, but I think I'm folding both. Ugh.