Naked A to flush on the river

[Burdzthewurd]

PLO50 on Bodog, HU

I have $97, Villain has $48. Villain is passive with overpairs, minraises with the nuts, rarely slowplays anything, hasn't been chasing non-nut draws, can fold marginal hands.

, Villains limps, I raise to $1.50 with A /images/graemlins/club.gifA /images/graemlins/spade.gif4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Villain calls,

Flop is 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif3 /images/graemlins/club.gif6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Not too shabby, I bet $3, Villain calls

Turn 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

I bet $9, Villain calls

River K /images/graemlins/club.gif

Now what?

[adam74]

Based on your read of the player, he's not drawing purely to the flush, so I guess all I'd be worried about is if he had a draw to a higher straight and his hand also contained a couple of low/medium clubs. Might he have raised on the flop with such a hand?

If he was drawing to a higher straight or a full house, then he's missed, and is unlikely to call again. If he has a flush, then he'll probably call any bet you make.

Is he capable of bluffing if you check?

I think I check-call. I don't think it's worth betting since I don't think he'll call with anything that you can beat, unless he's seen you bluff here before, or bet out with, say, two-pair and he has a set. Calling any bet he might make depends on whether you think he's capable of bluffing in this situation.

I guess betting out is only worthwhile if you think he'll lay down a non-nut flush. Personally, I don't think he would.

[Filip]

With your descs of the opponent and the fact that u have A /images/graemlins/club.gif i lead out with a pot bet. If the stacks was deeper it might go for a check-raise.

[adam74]

Filip...what hand do you put the opponent on?

[Kellermann]

[ QUOTE ]
PLO50 on Bodog, HU

I have $97, Villain has $48. Villain is passive with overpairs, minraises with the nuts, rarely slowplays anything, hasn't been chasing non-nut draws, can fold marginal hands.

, Villains limps, I raise to $1.50 with A /images/graemlins/club.gifA /images/graemlins/spade.gif4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Villain calls,

Flop is 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif3 /images/graemlins/club.gif6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Not too shabby, I bet $3, Villain calls

Turn 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

I bet $9, Villain calls

River K /images/graemlins/club.gif

Now what?

[/ QUOTE ]

I might be wrong here but it looks like he has 66xx and hope to fill up or maybe an overpair as you indicate. Letting him get a free showdown with his T high flush is a disaster. I lead the river against most opponents.

Who is in which position? (looks like you raise from the blinds (which I hate)).

[adam74]

[ QUOTE ]
Who is in which position? (looks like you raise from the blinds (which I hate)).

[/ QUOTE ]

It's heads-up. Villain is SB/Button.

[neuroman]

I'd also lead out for a pot sized bet, fold to a raise. It's possible that opponent 66xx or 45xx with a low club flush, and will lay down the winning hand. I wouldn't expect him to fold the 2nd nut Q high flush, but he might lay down a hand like 4c5s9c9s.

[Tilt]

[ QUOTE ]
With your descs of the opponent and the fact that u have A /images/graemlins/club.gif i lead out with a pot bet. If the stacks was deeper it might go for a check-raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Suicidal. You presume that he'll fold the non-nut flush. In a HU battle thats asking a lot.

[Filip]

[ QUOTE ]
Filip...what hand do you put the opponent on?

[/ QUOTE ]

A weak flush maybe, probably 2 pair or a set.

[Filip]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
With your descs of the opponent and the fact that u have A /images/graemlins/club.gif i lead out with a pot bet. If the stacks was deeper it might go for a check-raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Suicidal. You presume that he'll fold the non-nut flush. In a HU battle thats asking a lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
... hasn't been chasing non-nut draws, can fold marginal hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think there is good chance he will fold a medicore flush. He also might call with a set.

[Tilt]

[ QUOTE ]
I think there is good chance he will fold a medicore flush. He also might call with a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

????

If he cant fold a set here, why is he going to fold a K high flush?

If you pot the river your bluff has to get him to fold the flush 50% of the time to be worthwhile. If you checkraise the bluff is going to be very expensive. And if he has a set and doesnt buy that you have a better hand, you are going to be in a very difficult situation when he reraises you.

If you check-call you can get an affordable showdown, and you can induce and pickoff bluffs as often as you pay off the flush IMO.

[Filip]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think there is good chance he will fold a medicore flush. He also might call with a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

????

If he cant fold a set here, why is he going to fold a K high flush?

If you pot the river your bluff has to get him to fold the flush 50% of the time to be worthwhile. If you checkraise the bluff is going to be very expensive. And if he has a set and doesnt buy that you have a better hand, you are going to be in a very difficult situation when he reraises you.

If you check-call you can get an affordable showdown, and you can induce and pickoff bluffs as often as you pay off the flush IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you need to check the stack sizes, if i am not totaly of he got like pot+$1 left on the river.

So check-raise is out, and why do i wanna check/call when i can bet out the same amount since he cant raise me.