Feedback requested on my win distribution

[HelmetCrash]

Guys,

I've played 1000 $20 NL STTs. My ROI is +16% and my win distribution look like this:

1st: 12%
2nd: 12%
3rd: 15%
4th: 14%
5th: 15%
6th: 13%
7th: 10%
8th: 5%
9th: 2%
10th: 2%

What does this distribution say about my game?

For reference, I've seen the following distribution posted previously (I wish I could remember who posted it) and all comments from respected posters were that this distribution was ideal:


1st: 15%
2nd: 12%
3rd: 10%
4th: 13%
5th: 14%
6th: 13%
7th: 11%
8th: 7%
9th: 5%
10th: 3%

Looks like you either aren't getting enough chips early or aren't playing well heads up (I say knowing very little about this).

[mlagoo]

I guess I would just say that you are likely playing fairly ABC, tight poker, and you are likely missing a few bubble pushes. Your 3rd % is very high, especially considering your 4th-6th %s.

I know that there are some for whom this style is ideal (mentally, the idea of going out in 4th when they pushed T5o into a medium stack that was "supposed to" fold their KJ is difficult on them), and, a 16% ROI, while not amazing, is certainly still a tidy profit.

It is difficult to tell much from these sort of things. You're making money. That's good. You just are going out in 3rd too much. You're probably the one most likely to know why that is.

[45suited]

blah blah blah blah...

People can rattle on all they want about what your finish distribution means. Post some bubble hands if you think you might be missing some pushes.

But the bottom line is +16% on the 22s is nothing to sneeze at. It's easy to say "push more on the bubble" but without looking at a HH, who's really to say?

Another thing is this: so many people want to denigrate "ABC poker". Thing is, it's easy to do make light of fundamentally sound play, but alot of the people that do probably aren't capable of actually playing mistake free, ABC poker with proper SNG strategy. I'm not saying that I am capable of doing this at all times, but if somebody could actually do this, IMO they'd probably do very well on almost any level.

[Myst]

[ QUOTE ]
blah blah blah blah...

People can rattle on all they want about what your finish distribution means. Post some bubble hands if you think you might be missing some pushes.

But the bottom line is +16% on the 22s is nothing to sneeze at. It's easy to say "push more on the bubble" but without looking at a HH, who's really to say?

Another thing is this: so many people want to denigrate "ABC poker". Thing is, it's easy to do make light of fundamentally sound play, but alot of the people that do probably aren't capable of actually playing mistake free, ABC poker with proper SNG strategy. I'm not saying that I am capable of doing this at all times, but if somebody could actually do this, IMO they'd probably do very well on almost any level.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed with everything he said. And FWIW, I have 3 1000 sng sample distributions that look TOTALLY DIFFERENT from each other.

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
Looks like you either aren't getting enough chips early or aren't playing well heads up (I say knowing very little about this).

[/ QUOTE ]

It is absurd to deduce these conclusions by looking at his ROI and win distribution.

[Isura]

I honestly don't see a problem with anything here. You seem to be a winning player, and 16% is good at the $22s. The thing is, you might run at 25% for your next 1000 SNGs and then everyone will think you are the god of low limit SNGs. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not saying that I am capable of doing this at all times, but if somebody could actually do this, IMO they'd probably do very well on almost any level.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this is true. But whatever -- not really the topic of this thread.

Also, I think tight, ABC poker is not the same as playing optimally as far as SNGs go.



You are correct in saying that there's very little anyone can deduce from one of these things though. I was sort of just spouting off what might be the case (which i mentioned at the end of my post). I mean, he did ask after all.

[The Don]

[ QUOTE ]
I honestly don't see a problem with anything here. You seem to be a winning player, and 16% is good at the $22s. The thing is, you might run at 25% for your next 1000 SNGs and then everyone will think you are the god of low limit SNGs. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[/ QUOTE ]


As current god of the low limits I suggest that you quit poker after achieving such a weak finish distribution /images/graemlins/smile.gif ... Seriously, I agree with everyone in the 'who cares if you are winning' aspect. I personally put so much emphasis on building a big stack early that I think that it would be impossible (read: highly improbable) for me to not have 1st as my highest % ITM of a 1000 sample size. You probably have a different style but it is winning so who cares.

[45suited]

The point is that you what you said was likely in your first paragraph can not at all be deduced by looking at his finish distribution.

As far as the other part of the post, there is a difference between tight, and fundamentally sound. Obviously the time comes to open up your game. But there really is a love affair with FPS moves on this forum that is very -EV, in my opinion. There seems to be a bias against the obvious play, even if it is the most effective, simple, and +EV, with the least amount of risk. But I digress...

[HelmetCrash]

Thanks for all of the comments guys, I am taking a number of valuable things away from this feedback.

I was unsure how statistically significant these results are, and was interested to hear Myst say he as seen considerably different distributions for his various blocks of 1000 games. However, I still suspect that the bubble in my distribution in the 3rd-5th places is more than a random fluctuation.

Missing some bubble pushes does make sense as an explanation for my results. I don't suspect my heads up play to be the problem, it is just that once it gets to heads up I suspect I tend to be the smaller stack and thus naturally finish 2nd more often.