PDA

View Full Version : Deep 5/10 NL: Bottom set under pressure

HoldEmKillah
08-23-2005, 03:43 PM
Taken from about a week ago...

Villian is the button ($2100) and is 18/5/3.4. He's tight, solid yet can be overly-aggressive with his good hands but not donkish. I'm UTG ($1600) with 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif.

Preflop:
I call, VILLIAN calls, SB calls, BB checks.

FLOP: 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

I bet $35, VILLIAN raises to $70, I raise to $240, VILLIAN raises to $700.

My action?
08-23-2005, 03:59 PM
This smells like he may well have a bigger set. He could play it like that with either 4s or 8s.

He might be oveplaying an overpair or two pair, but it seems like he would have raised pre-flop with an overpair.

If we say it would take him at least two plair to take this line there are 21 ways he can have 2 pair and a total of six ways he can have an over-set. He is a huge dog if he is in with an overpair or TPTK.

I think I push here. The reason you came in with pocket 3s was to make a set. You got it.

GL
redtrain
08-23-2005, 04:02 PM
Push or fold, go with your read.
08-23-2005, 04:02 PM
Sorry if I seemed to contradict myself from the beginning to the end of my other post, but that is my mind worked. I.e., 1. How is the hero behind? 2. How is the hero ahead? 3. What should the hero do based on the balance of those two factors.

Vince
lapoker17
08-23-2005, 04:04 PM
Tough spot, but I think I'm pushing.

Because you hold 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif - Pair + Flush draw is out - which is bad for us as he may play that the same way, and that is a hand we'd love to add to his range as it would make a push even easier - you are also a significant favorite over any other draw - 56 /images/graemlins/heart.gif etc.

So if you're really asking, can I get away from set over set here, then my answer is a question:

Is he a guy who will limp 88 on the button with limpers, or is that a raise for him?

Without a great read, easy push.
fimbulwinter
08-23-2005, 04:20 PM
you have all the cards for the big combo draws. also, he's not trying to induce a fold here. if he's logical, fold.

fim
PokerNeophyte
08-23-2005, 04:23 PM
I'm surprised there's so much enthusiasm for a push. This seems like a situation where you'll probably be called only if you're beaten.

Of course, the correct line will be read dependent, but I'd expect the re-re-raise for this amount to be nothing less than a bigger set. I'm probably folding in this situation.
HoldEmKillah
08-23-2005, 04:33 PM
How about this:

If he has a big draw, would he mimimum raise? Maybe to get a free river card. But most decent players with big draws here like to play it fast and hard. So I would expect a big flop raise, not to $70 like he did.

Now IF he played his big draw by mini-raising me, it doesn't make sense to come back over the top does it? He very quickly made it $700 btw. He didn't have to stop and think about my reraise to $240.
MTBlue
08-23-2005, 04:34 PM
How do this guy play his draws? with a 16 VIP he probably isn't drawing too often and it seems like he probably pushes over your 230 with a draw. I fold. Your odds aren't great you're risking 1300 dollars to win 1900 and the only logical hand he could have is a set. His VIP says he doesn't play 84s or 43s but I suspect you called b/c you have always been a complete calling station /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

DookieMT
AZK
08-23-2005, 04:39 PM
Look up how he plays sets. Party gives you 20 seconds... this is more than enough time to look up how fast he plays sets. I do this every so often when I'm playing on too many tables and have no reads. I agree though, this looks like a fold that I'm probably not good enough to make.
HoldEmKillah
08-23-2005, 04:56 PM
I don't know if I'm good enough to make the fold or just weak but I folded. At the time I was thinking what MTBLue said...no 43 or 84 for this guy. Also if this was a draw I think he played it really weird...miniraise then reraise overthetop. It looked like an overset.

About a half hour later I asked him and he said he had 88 but who knows.

AZK...how do you look up set stats for a player so quickly? Is there a trick beyond finding the player in PT, looking at their starting hands, finding pairs then looking for sets THEN looking at HH's for those sets? Seems like a LONG time to me. (BTW..my PT stats for you are pretty sweet)

MTBLue...yeah we've traded punches quite a few times, eh? Actually I had you on my fish list early on for your overaggression.
iceman5
08-23-2005, 04:59 PM
I had a similar hand 2 days ago.
I have 22. Flop 742. EP bets pot, MP calls, I make a healthy raise, EP calls...and now MP reraises. I couldnt fold it and lost to 77.

Good fold.
HoldEmKillah
08-23-2005, 05:00 PM
Change my hand to 4 4. Easy push now? I'm just thinking about it now and I don't think I'd EVER be able to get rid of middle set. Anyone?
lapoker17
08-23-2005, 05:02 PM
NO - 44 is a no brainer.
iceman5
08-23-2005, 05:22 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Change my hand to 4 4. Easy push now? I'm just thinking about it now and I don't think I'd EVER be able to get rid of middle set. Anyone?

[/ QUOTE ]

With middle set you have to push. IF if has a set, you are 50/50 whether you have the winner or not because hes just as likely to have bottom set as he is top set, and you already have a portion of your stack in so even if he told you he had a set, you cant fold.

Plus, he might be overplaying something else.