Donked by a 2+2er

[Guy McSucker]

Party $5/10.

I am in the BB with JJ. UTG who is loose passive and bad limps. Folded to the SB, whom I believe to be a very good 2+2er, who completes. I of course raise and they of course call.

Flop: 4 6 7 with two spades. SB checks, I bet, UTG calls, SB calls.

Turn: offsuit K. SB bets.

What's your line?

Guy.

[danzasmack]

i raise.

[meow_meow]

The very best you can hope for is that he's got 12 outs.
More likely he's got a king or a strong made hand, looking to 3-bet you here.

I'm torn between folding, which has nasty future implications, and raising the turn, folding to a 3-bet, taking a free showdown UI.

[Victor]

2 options:

raise and fold to a 3bet

just call down.

i would lean towards raising this first time for metagame but i think its a situation that should be mixed up if repeatedly occurs.

[RunDownHouse]

I agree that you need to mix it up, but I call down this time to get a read on what he donks with.

[Danenania]

I think on this board with UTG behind you, you have to raise. If it were heads up, I'd call down but letting UTG hang around is too big of a risk now that the pot is getting big. I think SB either has a K, 6, 4, K6, or K4. K5 is also logical, but no other draw is. Neither is a monster like a set or straight.

I don't think he will fold any hand to your raise, though he may call planning to check/fold the river with his weaker hands. He will 3-bet you with Kings up and call with any of the others, so you have an easy fold to a 3-bet. This isn't too bad as you will usually still get a chance to suckout on the river (only 8 two pair combos versus a whole bunch of lone K's and other pairs).

Hopefully UTG will fold and you will check behind on the river and win. Hitting a J would also be acceptable.

[Nietzsche]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree that you need to mix it up, but I call down this time to get a read on what he donks with.

[/ QUOTE ]
The bad thing about that approach is a TAG mixes things up, unlike most LPs and some LAGs. So the information you are getting isn't that useful.

[Anders_G]

Danenania is spot-on

[cartman]

When I donk in this spot I am almost always strong. I am either looking to 3-bet, or strong enough that I absolutely don't want to risk the turn checking through.

Cartman

[mungpo]

[ QUOTE ]
When I donk in this spot I am almost always strong. I am either looking to 3-bet, or strong enough that I absolutely don't want to risk the turn checking through.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Wynton]

This hand requires thought because you say the sb is a very good player.

Given that, the only hands I can put sb on include a King (with either a straight or flush draw). Without accounting for metagame or table image considerations, I think a fold is best. But if you're determined to see what sb has, then I believe you should be raising, to eliminate the weak player who could easily be drawing.

[StellarWind]

I started by agreeing with you completely and I'm sure I would have raised the turn.

But on further reflection raising is incorrect. He checkcalled the flop. It's certainly possible to checkcall the flop and bet the turn with A6 or something, but not after a king hits. There are no hands without a king that checkcall the flop but bet this turn. If his hand wasn't worth a flop checkraise it certainly isn't worth a bet now unless he improved.

It's unlikely a strong 2+2 would play mind games with a third player in the pot.

You may wish to play on in hopes that this analysis is wrong for some reason. Maybe it's an odd bluff or some sort of strange play. But mostly you are chasing with two outs and far from winning even if SB is not ahead of you. There could be a king behind you and they probably have a lot of outs when you are ahead.

So you either trust your read and fold or you call down because your hand is decent and you have two outs. But you have no business putting extra money in the pot or risking your outs. Your winning chances simply aren't good enough to worry about pushing the third player out. Your chances of saving the pot by raising are miniscule and if you do spike a jack you'll definitely be sorry you chased his money away.

[Danenania]

Hmm, I see your points but I think the decision has to be between raising and folding with so many possible draws and the player behind you. I mean if you feel you have enough equity to call down, isn't it critical to protect that equity by raising? You lose your two outs when facing two pair but besides that it doesn't even cost more.

[StellarWind]

How many outs do you think UTG has and will fold? The OESD and the flush aren't going anywhere. I'll give him a gutshot, an overcard, or small pair for you to *try* to drive out. Maybe 3 outs.

But wait, you are assuming you are ahead. SB must have something and if it's not a king it must be outs. Often you'll get rid of UTG's outs only to discover that SB has those outs shadowed. In particular, you best hope is to drive out an overcard, especially an ace. But you really hope SB has a small pair and isn't the ace apt to be his kicker? Another likely possibility is that they both want the five. Maybe UTG has a cheap gutshot and SB has gutshot plus small pair.

Overall killing UTG is not worth the trouble. It's just too unlikely that you will lose the hand because you didn't raise. Against that you will often lose the hand because you do raise when Villain has kings up and three bets your outs away. Plus you lose the chance to win the money UTG would have called the turn and possibly the river with.