flopped set at 33

[schwza]

early, no reads at a 33. how's my line till now and what do i do on the turn?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG+1 (t785)
UTG+2 (t345)
MP1 (t1165)
Hero (t725)
MP3 (t810)
CO (t1015)
Button (t955)
SB (t575)
BB (t885)
UTG (t740)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls t30, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls t30, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t90</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls t60.

Flop: (t255) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, CO checks.

Turn: (t255) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets t100</font>, hero?

[wuwei]

I think your line so far looks good. I would just call the turn and plan on leading any river for 2-300. I'm not too worried about villian having a flush draw, seems likely he would have bet the flop if he did. He might have picked up a gutter, but in general I don't think it's too dangerous to play it this way.

[Unarmed]

If you're going to C/R the flop all-in, I like it. Otherwise, just lead.
Easy raise on the turn. Villain has overcards or AA/KK. If you lose the overs right here its not that huge a mistake. If you don't stack AA/KK on this hand you will have made a MASSIVE mistake.

[junkmail3]

[ QUOTE ]
I think your line so far looks good. I would just call the turn and plan on leading any river for 2-300. I'm not too worried about villian having a flush draw, seems likely he would have bet the flop if he did. He might have picked up a gutter, but in general I don't think it's too dangerous to play it this way.

[/ QUOTE ]


That line makes it too easy for the villian to get away cheap.

You have to raise it here, small enough to keep him in the hand, but big enough to get the most chips.

I'm thinking between a raise to 200 (min) and 300.

Then you can lead the river for 1/2 - 1/3 pot and he'll come right along or raise you with an overpair. Unless he has an overpair to this flop, he'll fold the river unimproved. So, flat calling the turn is probably the second worst play (behind folding).

(I like the flop check. The villian's check on the flop looks like an AK/AQ missed flop trying to pull the turn continuation bet. This will induce plenty of bluffs from villian.)

[downtown]

I think the flop looks fine. I think the turn looks fine too, and I would call, and plan on leading the river for about 1/2-pot to pot.

An alternate line for me on the turn would be to lead for about t75, as this looks like just enough of a probe bet, like you don't want to risk too much more of your stack, that it may induce a bluff raise from villain's AK or overpair.

In general I would say that calling is wrong here.

If he has a monster and is slowplaying it, he will reraise you and you will get paid very good.

If he hasnt got anything, just two overs, which most often is the situation, he will most likely call a miniraise from your side, mostly because he has position on you on the river and he hopes to catch something.

Just calling means that you wont get paid as much. He wont call a bet from you on the river with a hand that he wont call a raise with on the turn.

[junkmail3]

[ QUOTE ]
If you're going to C/R the flop all-in, I like it. Otherwise, just lead.

[/ QUOTE ]

What if villian bet the flop for T100? Do you think raising all in here would really be the best play?

I would think villian would fold most hands here unless he had AA/KK, and even then ... for some reason, he may still fold that.

I would think a slower route would be the way to go on this hand. (though with the check raise, villin may think you're on a flush/straight draw ... but would still be able to get away from big overs.)

I would think a flop bet in this situation would too often be a continuation bet on villian's part, and playing it slower, and quietly binding him to the pot would get more chips in this situation (played over and over).

(And I did start 3 'paragraphs' with the same 3 words)
(oh, right, add a crazy face so people know that line was a joke /images/graemlins/tongue.gif)

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
If you lose the overs right here its not that huge a mistake. If you don't stack AA/KK on this hand you will have made a MASSIVE mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very good point.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
What if villian bet the flop for T100? Do you think raising all in here would really be the best play?

I would think villian would fold most hands here unless he had AA/KK, and even then ... for some reason, he may still fold that.

[/ QUOTE ]

hahahahahahaha

[bennies]

If I want to make a weak probe bet then I prefer the flop to do it. AK should come over the top a good deal of the time.

[junkmail3]

[ QUOTE ]
If I want to make a weak probe bet then I prefer the flop to do it. AK should come over the top a good deal of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really?

[bennies]

didnt you know?

[Karak567]

Am I the only one betting 1/3-1/2 of the pot on the flop?

I hate giving a free card here, heads up or not.

Plus it looks like a weak bet and he may come overtop.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
Am I the only one betting 1/3-1/2 of the pot on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

This I like. Not 1/2 the pot, but a weak 1/3 pot size bet. (Unless of course I knew that villain could be counted upon to C-bet to the "weakness" shown by a check.)

Otherwise, I like the weak probe bet idea. The guy at least has overcards, possibly a draw with that flop. He'll at least call the flop bet, maybe raise.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
If you're going to C/R the flop all-in, I like it. Otherwise, just lead.
Easy raise on the turn. Villain has overcards or AA/KK. If you lose the overs right here its not that huge a mistake. If you don't stack AA/KK on this hand you will have made a MASSIVE mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

this was about my line of thinking, but my second guessing was that if the flush doesn't get there, i can c/r an overpair on the river almost every time. i can also bet out if a high card hits and get an extra bet (maybe even a push) from overs that hit a pair. if villain has a hand like JJ, i'm going to kick myself for not c/r'ing the turn, as he'll probably call the river but not get all his chips in.

if the flush does get there, i bet out and get called by AA/KK but don't stack them.

and there's some chance villain has something like KQ and i'm giving him a gutshot to stack me.

so i lose some when a flush gets there, when an overcard to villain's pair comes, or when he hits something to make a big hand. i gain when his overcards make a pair. sound about right?

also, what do people think of the turn check?

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
He'll at least call the flop bet, maybe raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

i often just fold a hand like AQ there. i think others do as well.

it's pretty unlikely villain has any kind of draw.

[45suited]

I think that you're underestimating the number of people that wouldn't be able to let AQ go when someone bets 80 into a pot of 250 or whatever it was.

Oh, I misread the post, thought that the flop contained the 9 and the T. But still, I don't mind checking or betting weakly into the pot. Lots of people like to raise when they smell weakness.

[bluefeet]

[ QUOTE ]
Am I the only one betting 1/3-1/2 of the pot on the flop?

I hate giving a free card here, heads up or not.

Plus it looks like a weak bet and he may come overtop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep.

Flop (t225)
You: bet t75 -- "yes! i got a piece of this rag flop"
Him: raise to t250 -- "weakazz punk!"
You: push --"ship it foo!"

-or-

Flop (t225)
You: bet t75 -- "yes! i got a piece of this rag flop"
Him: call -- "little bastard betting into me...come oooon big cards!"

Turn (t375) - with "over" card to the rags
You: check -- "uncle. iaintgotzquat, juzfoolin"
Him: bet t300/push -- "that's right weakazz punk!"
You: push -- "ship it foo!"

Edit: Of course, an Ace on the turn would have been nicer. But many a donk are just looking for that chance to assert their PF presentation.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
Yep.

Flop (t225)
You: bet t75 -- "yes! i got a piece of this rag flop"
Him: raise to t250 -- "weakazz punk!"
You: push --"ship it foo!"

-or-

Flop (t225)
You: bet t75 -- "yes! i got a piece of this rag flop"
Him: call -- "little bastard betting into me...come oooon big cards!"

Turn (t375) - with "over" card to the rags
You: check -- "uncle. iaintgotzquat, juzfoolin"
Him: bet t300/push -- "that's right weakazz punk!"
You: push -- "ship it foo!"

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know if this is a good thing or a bad thing, but I couldn't have said it better myself. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[bennies]

Flop (t225)
You: bet t75 -- "yes! i got a piece of this rag flop"
Him: raise to t250 -- "weakazz punk!"
You: push --"ship it foo!"

-or-

Flop (t225)
You: bet t75 -- "yes! i got a piece of this rag flop"
Him: call -- "little bastard betting into me...come oooon big cards!"

Turn (t375) - with "over" card to the rags
You: check -- "uncle. iaintgotzquat, juzfoolin"
Him: bet t300/push -- "that's right weakazz punk!"
You: push -- "ship it foo!"


beautiful

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

Villain has overcards or AA/KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think villain has played this the way a typical low-level opponent is going to play AA-KK. I think such people are generally going to bet the flop and probably bet bigger on the turn. Whiffed overs seem much more likely to me.