Bellagio 15/30 strange AA river decision

[jason_t]

Preflop:I am SB with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#cc3333">TPP raises UTG</font>, 3 cold calls, <font color="#cc3333">I 3-bet</font>, <font color="#cc3333">TPP 4-bets</font>, the cold callers call, <font color="#cc3333">I cap</font>, they all call.

Flop: (26.00 SB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000ff">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#cc3333">I bet</font>, UTG calls, the rest fold.

Turn: (15.00 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000ff">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#cc3333">I bet</font>, UTG calls.

River: (17.00 BB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000ff">(2 players)</font>
I....

Is this hard or am I overthinking it?

[Michael Davis]

Jeez, I'm gonna get flamed but I think you can throw away to a raise and should probably bet, but this is a pretty tough spot.

-Michael

[thesharpie]

Check call and hope for a split.

[JTG51]

[ QUOTE ]
Jeez, I'm gonna get flamed but I think you can throw away to a raise and should probably bet, but this is a pretty tough spot.

-Michael

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess I haven't been reading the forum enough. What does TPP mean? Tight-passive player?

If that's the case, what can Jason beat on the river? What could he beat on the turn for that matter? Will a tight passive player EVER bluff if Jason checks the river? Will I get flamed if I say check fold the river?

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]


I guess I haven't been reading the forum enough. What does TPP mean? Tight-passive player?


[/ QUOTE ]

Tight player that is passive preflop and passive postflop.

[Justin A]

If he's tight passive enough that he doesn't 4bet AQs preflop, then we can probably check-fold the river.

Edit\ I'd still check-call because the pot is so big and I want to keep a clear head for the rest of the session, but I think a check-fold is correct EV wise.

Also, I think the other players in the hand must have played this as badly as possible.

[thejameser]

smaller pot i check/fold. this pot i check/call.

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
smaller pot i bet/fold. this pot i check/call.

[/ QUOTE ]

What would be your reasoning for bet/folding? What hands are you hoping to get called by?

[partygirluk]

Check/fold.

[thejameser]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
smaller pot i bet/fold. this pot i check/call.

[/ QUOTE ]

What would be your reasoning for bet/folding? What hands are you hoping to get called by?

[/ QUOTE ]

now that i am over my post lunch napping please see my new edited version.

[brettbrettr]

Bet, I think you're overthinking it.

[BigEndian]

This is a pretty straight-forward check-call. Even if the player is passive, I don't want to lead into them and this be their one moment of inspiration to raise with AA. There's definitely no value to a bet here.

- Jim

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet, I think you're overthinking it.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're underthinking it. Please tell me what possible value there is in a bet?

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bet, I think you're overthinking it.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're underthinking it. Please tell me what possible value there is in a bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Heh, I posted, had a smoke, the whole time while smoking thinking to myself, you're an idiot, you can't bet that.

[SnglMaltScotch]

Check/Fold. I challenge anyone to name a single hand that a tight preflop raiser 4 bets with that you still beat. AQs and MAYBE TT are the only ones that come to mind.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Check/Fold. I challenge anyone to name a single hand that a tight preflop raiser 4 bets with that you still beat. AQs and MAYBE TT are the only ones that come to mind.

[/ QUOTE ]

AA is a chop. 1 way. We would have expected a little more action from KK/QQ/JJ on the flop/turn but they could still be out there. If our hand is good here one in 19 times we call; so we look and say KK - 1 way, QQ - 3 ways, JJ - 3 ways, AKs - 1 way, TT - 3 ways (discounted). That's ahead 3 ways, chopping 2 ways, and behind 8 ways. Sure looks like a call to me.

Rob

[BWebb]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Check/Fold. I challenge anyone to name a single hand that a tight preflop raiser 4 bets with that you still beat. AQs and MAYBE TT are the only ones that come to mind.

[/ QUOTE ]

AA is a chop. 2 ways. We would have expected a little more action from KK/QQ/JJ on the flop/turn but they could still be out there. If our hand is good here one in 19 times we call; so we look and say KK - 1 way, QQ - 3 ways, JJ - 3 ways, AKs - 1 way, TT - 3 ways (discounted). That's ahead 3 ways, chopping 2 ways, and behind 8 ways. Sure looks like a call to me.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

AA is 1 way. The only reason to bet this is that there is a strong chance UTG will fold AA, which he won't. Check/call.

check with the intention of calling

[jgorham]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Check/Fold. I challenge anyone to name a single hand that a tight preflop raiser 4 bets with that you still beat. AQs and MAYBE TT are the only ones that come to mind.

[/ QUOTE ]

AA is a chop. 1 way. We would have expected a little more action from KK/QQ/JJ on the flop/turn but they could still be out there. If our hand is good here one in 19 times we call; so we look and say KK - 1 way, QQ - 3 ways, JJ - 3 ways, AKs - 1 way, TT - 3 ways (discounted). That's ahead 3 ways, chopping 2 ways, and behind 8 ways. Sure looks like a call to me.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

Great analysis Rob, and this doesn't even take into consideration the 1-2% of times TPP got sick of you raising him and decided to go a little crazy. This pot is just too big to fold.

[Hoi Polloi]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Check/Fold. I challenge anyone to name a single hand that a tight preflop raiser 4 bets with that you still beat. AQs and MAYBE TT are the only ones that come to mind.

[/ QUOTE ]

AA is a chop. 1 way. We would have expected a little more action from KK/QQ/JJ on the flop/turn but they could still be out there. If our hand is good here one in 19 times we call; so we look and say KK - 1 way, QQ - 3 ways, JJ - 3 ways, AKs - 1 way, TT - 3 ways (discounted). That's ahead 3 ways, chopping 2 ways, and behind 8 ways. Sure looks like a call to me.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

Good analysis.