Which came first?

[JasonM]

Something I was thinking about on the way home from the bar.

Scenario:

You are in the middle of a cold streak. Halfway through a session in which you are losing, your clone who is running incredibly good takes over for you. What happens?

-Jason

[Equal]

He wins at your win rate.

[SoftcoreRevolt]

He is dealt the same cards you would have been dealt.

[Matador225]

[ QUOTE ]
Something I was thinking about on the way home from the bar.


[/ QUOTE ]

Do you always get very philosophical after drinking? Haha. But I don't really get the title of your post "which came first?" In regard to your question I would say that your clone would proceed to win at a BB rate of your typical winning rate + rate you had been losing money at to get you back up to an average night.

[emonrad87]

[ QUOTE ]
In regard to your question I would say that your clone would proceed to win at a BB rate of your typical winning rate + rate you had been losing money at to get you back up to an average night.

[/ QUOTE ]


No.

[Ianco15]

[ QUOTE ]
+ rate you had been losing money at to get you back up to an average night.

[/ QUOTE ]
Explain your reasoning, please.

[tek]

I think there's a chance the clone would do better. The clone wouldn't have the memory (unless he was watching from the rail) of the bad cards. He would come in fresh.

Yes, the cards dealt would stay the same, the players would stay the same, and the table image of the clone would erroneously saty the same.

The clone wouldn't be afraid to exploit edges and bet appropriate pot odds.

[Tailgunner]

Your clone cashes out all your accounts and skips off to the Caribbean to relax and sip margaritas on a nude beach while bilking tourists in a nightly 5/10.

[poker-penguin]

Your clone gets a random set of cards just like you would.

The only advantage the clone would have is if you were on tilt from your bad run and he was in the zone from his good run.

[spamuell]

Everyone who has responded to this thread is retarded. What happens is your clone will run good but next time you play your cold streak will grow to incorporate the winnings of the clone, as well as what it would have led you to before. The only way to negate this is to play on your clone's account, which is actually allowed according to Party's T&C.

[Duffman]

I believe the egg came first.

Your clone was running good at his table. If you sit at his table you'll do good. Otherwise he'll get the same crappy cards you were getting at your table.

That made no sense.

Here we are at 2+2, one of the best poker forums out there, and definitely the best poker book publisher out there, and we're discussing luck and running good. Awesome.

[Greg J]

I think as long as you don't touch him you will be fine. You saw Timecop right?

[Grisgra]

This isn't about the cards, you retardos. It's about whether you -- yeah, I'm talking to YOU -- play better when you're running g00t or running bad, and whether your clone would be smart enough to adjust his game to the fact that you had been running bad at the table (i.e., the bluffs and steals he could make will probably just be spewy at your table).

All else being equal, Grisgra running good is probably playing slightly better than Grisgra running bad, and my clone would be able to adjust for the fact that he was coming to a table where I had been running bad . . . so I'll let the clone do the work while I catch up on my Tivo.

[Duffman]

Well wouldn't your clone start playing just as bad as you once he realizes he's running bad?

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]
Well wouldn't your clone start playing just as bad as you once he realizes he's running bad?

[/ QUOTE ]

Who says he's going to run bad just because you *were* running bad?

[Duffman]

Oh ok now I see what you're saying.

[yvesaint]

[ QUOTE ]
Everyone who has responded to this thread is retarded.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]
Oh ok now I see what you're saying.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks. As I was saying, this isn't a stupid question at all -- a losing session can knock some people from their A-game into their B-game, or their B-game into their C- or D-game. Or worse. This is just a creative/silly way of thinking about how well you play when running good vs running bad, and how well you adjust your game when running good vs running bad. Completely non-trivial concerns.

[Zetack]

[ QUOTE ]
Something I was thinking about on the way home from the bar.

Scenario:

You are in the middle of a cold streak. Halfway through a session in which you are losing, your clone who is running incredibly good takes over for you. What happens?

-Jason

[/ QUOTE ]

I hate questions in which vital information is not provided. This is worse than the no read on opponents hand questions.

The answer to this question has a lot to do with what point in your life your clone was made.

For instance I've been playing poker for two years, so a clone made after I've started playing would still be an infant and probably not a good player, I don't care how hot a streak he's been on. A clone made shortly after my birth would have such different life experiences that there's no way to predict what kind of poker player he'd be. For all I know, this session today that he's running so well in, is his first session ever...


--Zetack

[JasonM]

I wasn't really thinking in terms of an actual clone, more of your clone as a poker player. Someone who is the same skill level, plays the same, thinks the same... (someone who plays exactly like you)

-Jason

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]
I wasn't really thinking in terms of an actual clone, more of your clone as a poker player. Someone who is the same skill level, plays the same, thinks the same... (someone who plays exactly like you)

-Jason

[/ QUOTE ]

Not your fault that some people are so dense /images/graemlins/cool.gif. It's not like you posted this question on a freakin' science fiction site.

[Matador225]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
+ rate you had been losing money at to get you back up to an average night.

[/ QUOTE ]
Explain your reasoning, please.

[/ QUOTE ]

I could be completely wrong but my thinking was that assuming your clone that is running good plays exactly the same way you were playing when running bad (and assuming that the cold streak was inversely proportional to the hot streak)you would be able to get back up to your true win rate for the night. Just a thought. I may have taken these assumptions for granted and I am not sure if the OP meant that at all.

[Ianco15]

[ QUOTE ]
I could be completely wrong but my thinking was that assuming your clone that is running good plays exactly the same way you were playing when running bad (and assuming that the cold streak was inversely proportional to the hot streak)you would be able to get back up to your true win rate for the night. Just a thought. I may have taken these assumptions for granted and I am not sure if the OP meant that at all.


[/ QUOTE ]

A cold "streak" is just a run of cards that happen to be worse than normal. There is no set hand limit for a streak. It could be 2 hands or 2 thousand hands. The cards don't know who you are. If you're having a cold streak, then having some one new sit at your computer who is "running good," does not mean they will keep running good. It doesn't mean they will start running bad, either. Each new hand has the same likely hood of being aces as the last hand did, no matter who you are. There is no reason to believe that you or any other person will run anything but normal at any given time.

Having someone play on your account who plays just like you but is on a hot streak, does not mean they will get different cards than you would have gotten.

[Matador225]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I could be completely wrong but my thinking was that assuming your clone that is running good plays exactly the same way you were playing when running bad (and assuming that the cold streak was inversely proportional to the hot streak)you would be able to get back up to your true win rate for the night. Just a thought. I may have taken these assumptions for granted and I am not sure if the OP meant that at all.


[/ QUOTE ]

A cold "streak" is just a run of cards that happen to be worse than normal. There is no set hand limit for a streak. It could be 2 hands or 2 thousand hands. The cards don't know who you are. If you're having a cold streak, then having some one new sit at your computer who is "running good," does not mean they will keep running good. It doesn't mean they will start running bad, either. Each new hand has the same likely hood of being aces as the last hand did, no matter who you are. There is no reason to believe that you or any other person will run anything but normal at any given time.

Having someone play on your account who plays just like you but is on a hot streak, does not mean they will get different cards than you would have gotten.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea I understand all of this. Perhaps I just misunderstood the OP or didn't express my idea in a clear way.

[Matador225]

Actually I think I mostly misinterpreted the OP. You are right Ianco.

[jman220]

[ QUOTE ]
and assuming that the cold streak was inversely proportional to the hot streak

[/ QUOTE ]

You know what happens when you assume?

[Matador225]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
and assuming that the cold streak was inversely proportional to the hot streak

[/ QUOTE ]

You know what happens when you assume?

[/ QUOTE ]

Haha. I had a feeling someone would post that. I was thinking about it while responding.

[adamstewart]

At first, I thought your post was ridiculous ... implying that "streaks" in some way influenced the fall of cards for the next hand, and the next ...

But then, I think I understand what you (hopefully) meant. That is, "streaks" can affect one's confidence and playing ability.

A player on a 'cold streak' could very likely be tilting (subtlly or not). A player on a 'hot streak' could be playing with a high degree of confidence, thus exhibiting proper aggression, playing with a clear head, etc .....


So, in answer to your question:

[ QUOTE ]
You are in the middle of a cold streak. Halfway through a session in which you are losing, your clone who is running incredibly good takes over for you. What happens?


[/ QUOTE ]


I suppose that the 'hot-streaking-clone' will be dealt the exact same cards you would have, but it's very likely that he would play them better and thus earn a slightly higher EV than you would have (for at least the short term).



Adam