PUSH or wait for small stack to be eleminated?

[Karaja]

20+2 200/400 Hero is UTG with ATo and T 2700
OTHER stacks:
UTG+1 - 450
SB - 2450
BB - 2400

You've been pushing a lot before.
Do you push here?
What calling ranges do you put on the other big stacks assuming that it is a 22$ tournament?

Actual results (and one additional question) are below in white.
<font color="white"> </font>

[Hendricks433]

I fold. But ITM I push this.

[Karaja]

SB called my push with AJo &amp; I finished 4-th.

What do you think about his call?

[Hendricks433]

I probally fold in his spot but $22 players arent good and most people think AJ is a monster. I might make the call depending on reads of my oponent. If someone has been pushing like crazy I might call em down. But with the shorty about to bust and you having me covered I lay this down.

[HesseJam]

Read independent, your push is better than his call. But you said you been pushing a lot before. So, this might have been a spot where you should have folded.

[ilya]

Pushing is fine; the SB's AJo call was ATROCIOUS, it's hugely unprofitable no matter what range UTG is pushing. I mean...he has an easy fold with AKs!

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
Pushing is fine; the SB's AJo call was ATROCIOUS, it's hugely unprofitable no matter what range UTG is pushing. I mean...he has an easy fold with AKs!

[/ QUOTE ]

Correct. But, it's certainly not a big surprise that AJ called.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Pushing is fine; the SB's AJo call was ATROCIOUS, it's hugely unprofitable no matter what range UTG is pushing. I mean...he has an easy fold with AKs!

[/ QUOTE ]

Correct. But, it's certainly not a big surprise that AJ called.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh yeah, I'd definitely expect a call from AJ. I think most $20s players do fold hands like A8o here though. And they'd have to be much looser than even that to make me consider folding.

[psyduck]

[ QUOTE ]
Correct. But, it's certainly not a big surprise AT ALL that donktacular idiot AJ called.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

[ChrisV]

Push is fine. You got unlucky running into AJ. I expect a call out of an awful lot of players here, even though it's a clear fold.

[diebitter]

I'd wait for the small stack to go personally.

I think the villain's AJ call to a pushy type would be okay though, IF there's no small stack about to go. I've played this in a similar situation several times, and it's +EV overall IMHO (I can remember 2 times it wasn't, but both were against pairs above JJ - more often than not it's stuff like KQ or QJs, sometimes little pairs which luckily didn't stand up).


I'd definitely not play it against anyone tight though.

[networkman]

[ QUOTE ]


I'd definitely not play it against anyone tight though.

[/ QUOTE ] I'd push any 2 against tighties, if they call with a monster, cest la vie.

[BadMongo]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the villain's AJ call to a pushy type would be okay though, IF there's no small stack about to go.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. If the shorty was gone and we were ITM, this would be an easy call. However, the situation descibed by the OP is very different. Calling in that spot is horrendous, even if he thinks Hero is pushing any two.

As for the AT push UTG, I think it's fine. You're only worried about a call by two of the players, and you have them both covered so they should be playing reasonably tight (tight by 20+2 standards /images/graemlins/wink.gif). The blinds are significant here, and you want to accumulate a chip lead if possible before shorty busts. I think the OP played it fine, but just got unlucky that some donk picked up a hand he thought was good enough to call with.

[Freudian]

I fold this pretty much all of the time. Part of the reason the $22s are profitable is that people don't understand pushing/calling standards. And you don't want to push ATo into 2 players who don't understand calling standards and have the stacks to cripple you.

If small stack had 1000 chips, I would push this.

[BadMongo]

Well, I just did the the ICM analysis with SGA, and it turns out that this push is +EV across virtually every set of calling ranges I could come up with. This is definately a push, and the reason is that you have the other two big stacks covered. This means that even if you are called and lose, you still have a shot at the making the money because the other stack is so short.

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold this pretty much all of the time. Part of the reason the $22s are profitable is that people don't understand pushing/calling standards. And you don't want to push ATo into 2 players who don't understand calling standards and have the stacks to cripple you.

If small stack had 1000 chips, I would push this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Would you elaborate on calling standards... I think I have my own pushing standards down (not perfect, but ok), but I rarely win when I call... so I need help here (calling standards in the bubble and ITM) Thanks

[EnderFFX]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold this pretty much all of the time. Part of the reason the $22s are profitable is that people don't understand pushing/calling standards. And you don't want to push ATo into 2 players who don't understand calling standards and have the stacks to cripple you.

If small stack had 1000 chips, I would push this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, and add the reason that you have been pushing a lot lately and don't want people getting sick and just calling with KQ, any pair, Ace bigger kicker. At the $11/$22 this happens a lot, someone pushes for a while and then someone gets the guts to call with crap.

I like slowing down here and there just to have my opponent think i'm getting lucky with cards and not outplaying them through aggression.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I fold this pretty much all of the time. Part of the reason the $22s are profitable is that people don't understand pushing/calling standards. And you don't want to push ATo into 2 players who don't understand calling standards and have the stacks to cripple you.

If small stack had 1000 chips, I would push this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Would you elaborate on calling standards... I think I have my own pushing standards down (not perfect, but ok), but I rarely win when I call... so I need help here (calling standards in the bubble and ITM) Thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

Basically if hero pushes here the blinds should have ultra-tight calling standards (QQ-AA, possibly JJ and AKs) because of the small stack. But I see people calling with 99, AJ etc all the time simply because they don't understand that the only ones helped by such a call is the two players not involved in the hand. They base their call mainly based on their own hand and fail to recognize all the other factors that turn this from a maybe-call to an auto-fold.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I just did the the ICM analysis with SGA, and it turns out that this push is +EV across virtually every set of calling ranges I could come up with. This is definately a push, and the reason is that you have the other two big stacks covered. This means that even if you are called and lose, you still have a shot at the making the money because the other stack is so short.

[/ QUOTE ]

And this highlights the big weakness with ICM. It only deals with here and now and not what will come.

[junkmail3]

[ QUOTE ]
20+2 200/400 Hero is UTG with ATo and T 2700
OTHER stacks:
UTG+1 - 450
SB - 2450
BB - 2400

You've been pushing a lot before.
Do you push here?
What calling ranges do you put on the other big stacks assuming that it is a 22$ tournament?

Actual results (and one additional question) are below in white.
<font color="white"> </font>

[/ QUOTE ]

This will probably sound atrocious. But, you are the big stack, and can put anyone out if they call you're all in.

(the faint of heart should look away), but I don't mind minraising in a situation like this (every hand) until you pushed back and no longer have the chip lead.

Since the shorty is so short, people should be terrified of going out right before this.

I wish the blinds were smaller. Then something like this wouldn't have to be discussed. I'd fold ATo here, and wait for him to bust if you don't like raising 1/3 or your stack with a possibility of losing it.

But really, while you're risking 1/3 of your stack, you stand to gain 1/5 if you take the blinds

If you sucessfully min raise 2 times and get the blinds, you've paid for the one time you get pushed. Which is why I don't mind it so much.

[1C5]

used to push this, now min raise it.

[MonkeeMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I just did the the ICM analysis with SGA, and it turns out that this push is +EV across virtually every set of calling ranges I could come up with. This is definately a push, and the reason is that you have the other two big stacks covered. This means that even if you are called and lose, you still have a shot at the making the money because the other stack is so short.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong. If you lose to anyone but the short stack you are all-in for less than the BB next hand and shortie can watch with amusement.

[bawcerelli]

don't we need to get back to the basics with this one? aggressive poker is winning poker. the blinds are significant and it's time to start distancing ourselves from the other two big stacks. push is good.

[bennies]

nice play

[citanul]

i push here, even at a 22.

the point that others bring up here is a good one, that you should expect other players to call with hands they really shouldn't call with. though i haven't gone to the calculator, i'm pretty certain even if your put your opponents on really bad calling ranges, this push is good.

poker, and sngs, is an interesting game because it is not true that you playing in an optimal manner for beating optimal opponents will beat a bad opponent or opponent set. in a game like chess, the reverse is clearly true. however, since a bad player's play can negatively effect your outcomes, you *must* take into account how bad and what kind of bad your opponents are when making close decisions.

a subnote of this is that while your opponent's call in this particular case is bad in the sense that it loses him money, his call here against a pushing range that a reasonably good hero will have will lose that hero a lot of money as well.

when all else fails, remember that every once in a while your opponents will call for no reason except they are sick of you.

i know i do.

note: i don't think any of this stuff i wrote in any way makes your AT not a push.

citanul

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well, I just did the the ICM analysis with SGA, and it turns out that this push is +EV across virtually every set of calling ranges I could come up with. This is definately a push, and the reason is that you have the other two big stacks covered. This means that even if you are called and lose, you still have a shot at the making the money because the other stack is so short.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong. If you lose to anyone but the short stack you are all-in for less than the BB next hand and shortie can watch with amusement.

[/ QUOTE ]

i like how you said "wrong" and then did not do anything to contradict the other guy's point.

[Isura]

Not pushing here is terrible without a read that BOTH blinds are maniacs.

[NegativeEV]

ICM says push even if SB/BB call ranges are pretty liberal (which they are for typical $22 players IF you've been aggressive as you say you have).

Additionally, consider what taking these blinds does to the layout of the stacks in play here and what that will mean for the rest of the bubble and ITM play. Before this hand there are three strong stacks, 2700, 2450, 2400. Every one of these stacks can comfortably push into the others to control the bubble. If you take these blinds, the stacks are 3300, 2250, 2000. That really changes the balance of power for the bubble and ITM.

When you take these blinds the 2000 stack is in the SB when you are in BB with 3300 (with the 450 stack still around). This is much different than 2450 / 2700 and will result in you getting more walks in your BB. Additionally when you have such a chip lead the other two mid-stacks will often adopt a "play for 2nd" strategy and will be MORE willing to fold to you continued aggression than if they were even stacked, so this is important in several ways.

I really think this steal at this specific point in the game is really very powerful and really impacts the rest of the game.

[FlyWf]

He didn't go into detail because it's pretty obvious.
ICM doesn't know where the blinds are. You get called and lose you're looking at another coinflip, then if you win that you're in the SB for 1/3 of your stack with shortie mostly allin in the BB.


ICM overvalues your chance of making the money with a 300 chip stack in this situation. If you were UTG+1 and shortie was UTG, this is an easy push, because shortie has to face the coinflip first. In this situation it's still a push, but it's closer. Both stacks should be smart enough to fold and you have a hand that won't be a huge dog if they are loose.

But ICM is not perfect, and this is the sort of situation that it miscalculates. 300 is not just a little worse than 450 if 300 gets the blinds first.

[AliasMrJones]

Pooooosh.

[MonkeeMan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well, I just did the the ICM analysis with SGA, and it turns out that this push is +EV across virtually every set of calling ranges I could come up with. This is definately a push, and the reason is that you have the other two big stacks covered. This means that even if you are called and lose, you still have a shot at the making the money because the other stack is so short.


[/ QUOTE ]Wrong. If you lose to anyone but the short stack you are all-in for less than the BB next hand and shortie can watch with amusement.


[/ QUOTE ] i like how you said "wrong" and then did not do anything to contradict the other guy's point.

[/ QUOTE ]

How's this? [ QUOTE ]
This is definately a push, and the reason is that you have the other two big stacks covered. This means that even if you are called and lose, you still have a shot at the making the money because you have a chip and a chair, but are about to be blinded out next hand, while the current short stack can back into the money.


[/ QUOTE ]

[schwza]

sure, what you wrote is also true. i don't know if you intended to show why that first dude was "Wrong" but you definitely didn't.

first dude was only saying that you have some chance of cashing even if you lose, while you wouldn't if the big stacks had you covered.

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Would you elaborate on calling standards... I think I have my own pushing standards down (not perfect, but ok), but I rarely win when I call... so I need help here (calling standards in the bubble and ITM) Thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

Basically if hero pushes here the blinds should have ultra-tight calling standards (QQ-AA, possibly JJ and AKs) because of the small stack. But I see people calling with 99, AJ etc all the time simply because they don't understand that the only ones helped by such a call is the two players not involved in the hand. They base their call mainly based on their own hand and fail to recognize all the other factors that turn this from a maybe-call to an auto-fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Since people seem to have a wide range of calling hands, does this mean I need a narrower range of hands to push with?

[BadMongo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well, I just did the the ICM analysis with SGA, and it turns out that this push is +EV across virtually every set of calling ranges I could come up with. This is definately a push, and the reason is that you have the other two big stacks covered. This means that even if you are called and lose, you still have a shot at the making the money because the other stack is so short.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong. If you lose to anyone but the short stack you are all-in for less than the BB next hand and shortie can watch with amusement.

[/ QUOTE ]

So which part of my post is wrong?

I never said you were garunteed to make the money, I said you still have a shot. I'm also aware of the flaws involved with ICM analysis involving very short stacks (i.e. blind position), I was merely stating the results of the analysis as evidence that this is a push.

[BadMongo]

[ QUOTE ]
Since people seem to have a wide range of calling hands, does this mean I need a narrower range of hands to push with?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's usually not as simple as this. Relative stack sizes and blind level are often the dominant factor for push/fold decisions, not your cards or even your opponent's calling range. There are situations where looser calling ranges means you should play less hands, but there are also situations where this means you should play more.

[curtains]

This is a very clear push. I think their ranges will vary. Some $22ers will be unbelievably tight, trying to sneak into the money...whereas some will be loose because they are morons.

[derdo]

i push this every time. The thing that there is a very short stack is a good thing for you. $22 players make stupid calls but most of them notice the short stack and fold most hands in such a position. For every call you get with Aan J you get 20+ folds and get an big advantage for placing higher after the bubble.