Call river with 44 (on board), Ace Kicker v. strength in 9.75 BB pot?

Only played 20 hands with Villain. 23.1/0/1.29. Seemed like a reasonable player.

What should I do on the river? My natural inclination with 9.75 BB at stake is to call -- I only have to win 10% of the time to make a call here correct. But is a call just silly in this particular situation?

Also, any thoughts on the previous streets are appreciated. (I thought I had odds to call both flop and turn -- please let me know if was wrong).

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (6.75 BB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls, MP3 folds.

River: (8.75 BB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero ???

Will answer back in the a.m. (well, I mean later in the a.m.)

[Eeegah]

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Only played 20 hands with Villain. 23.1/0/1.29. Seemed like a reasonable player.

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Fold. Reasonable people don't bet flush draws on the turn.

In fact, even seeing the river is questionable, as your Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif out is tainted, as are two of your overcard outs. You might have five outs total here; not enough to call IMO.

[Peter-23]

I think your turn call is ok. Close, yes but due to the pot size I think you played correct.

But I dont believe A high will due on the river though, not even to take 10 to 1 on. I dont believe your out against a draw. And even if you were could be betting KQ. I would fold the river.

[jakbse]

Flop - You miss the flop and the board is fairly coordinated, I'm not sure an autobet does anything good here. You have nothing to protect as you haven't made your hand, and you can't bet for value as you're probably behind. HU I would bet for sure, against two players, I would say it's marginal. When raised on the flop I'd put CO on a FD, OESD or TP.

Turn, since CO bets he probably had TP on the flop. If he were on a draw he would have checked behind. I would say you have 6 pretty clean outs to call the turn, which should be enough.
On the river, I would probably call, but I'm damn sure that we are behind here. The reason to call is not only that there is a small chance that we are the best, but also to avoid people taking shots at us later in the session.

[Eeegah]

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Flop - You miss the flop and the board is fairly coordinated, I'm not sure an autobet does anything good here. You have nothing to protect as you haven't made your hand, and you can't bet for value as you're probably behind. HU I would bet for sure, against two players, I would say it's marginal. When raised on the flop I'd put CO on a FD, OESD or TP.

Turn, since CO bets he probably had TP on the flop. If he were on a draw he would have checked behind. I would say you have 6 pretty clean outs to call the turn, which should be enough.
On the river, I would probably call, but I'm damn sure that we are behind here. The reason to call is not only that there is a small chance that we are the best, but also to avoid people taking shots at us later in the session.

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A couple points here:

1) Don't forget MP3. We have no idea why he's in the hand at this point: He may have any of the things mentioned above, he might be slowplaying a set (or even quads now), or he might be waiting to fold his puny 77. Just because we know what he did now doesn't mean we can ignore his motives in the hand. He's the reason I'm discounting our Spade outs, moreso than CO. As for the CO, if he does have TP then there's a very good chance we're reverse dominated depending on what his CC standards are (mine are strictly AQs, AJs and KQs), devaluing our Ace (and to a far lesser extent our King) outs. I think our situation here is borderline at best.

2) Unless our preflop raises gather no respect whatsoever, I seriously doubt that CO is behaving this strongly with A high. We ain't good here one time in ten, sorry. As for image, if someone folds overcards in the face of that much aggression my first thought isn't "huh what a weak-tightie." Even if someone tries to start taking shots at me I say bring it on, as I'll happily 3-bet his ass on the river later on with the best hand /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

I called the river. Lost to KJo.

Thanks for the comments. I have lately been struggling with when to lay down a hand on the river (especially HU) in a big pot. My reasoning is such that I almost never fold in this situation, and that result bothers me. In particular, I reason as follows: 12 BB pot; I need to win only 1 in 12, or more than 8.3% of the time; I can almost never "know" in SS that I will lose 91.7% of the time in this situation; therefore, I call.

Do I have a leak here?

[davelin]

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I called the river. Lost to KJo.

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Be sure to change your "reasonable" read.

[@bsolute_luck]

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Do I have a leak here?

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maybe we can both learn from this hand, but IMO based on your read, i don't understand what the % of times you have to catch a bluff here has to do with anything.

basically you're saying "yeah i know my read is a reasonable player, but i think he'll coldcall preflop, raise a flush draw, and continuation bet the entire hand." just doesn't sound like they go together.

did you put him on a range of hands preflop and on the flop? that would probably help the discussion out. plus there's a miriade of other questions that would help:

1. what does he cold call with
2. does he reraise on flush/straight draws?
3. any continuation betting

you may not have a lot of hands on him, but even if he does this once or twice, at least it gives you an idea even if you lay down the best hand once and awhile.

it would be tough to put # of outs on your hand, but it think it was overvalued and should have been folded on the turn. JT, KQ/J, A/J, JJ-TT (yes, i've seen it done), Q9 are a few i can think of. so you're looking at ~4-5 outs i think.

how's that a start for discussion /images/graemlins/grin.gif

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Do I have a leak here?

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maybe we can both learn from this hand, but IMO based on your read, i don't understand what the % of times you have to catch a bluff here has to do with anything.

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Maybe bad thinking on my part, I don't know. I keep thinking about the advice I've seen in Sklansky and Miller's material about how it is a "catastrophe" when you fold a winning hand in a big pot, but it is a "small mistake" when you lose one bet. I think that has led to me virtually always calling one bet when there are 10 BB or more (or maybe even &gt;8). So, even when I may not have "good reason" to believe I'm against a bluff, I will call in this situation, particularly when there is some logical scenario in which I am facing a river bluff.

Take this hand, for example. I agree that it makes little sense to believe he was bluffing on the river. However, I have seen a lot of crazy plays online in SS. And I had not seen this player much at all, so I didn't know what he was capable of doing. I thought it was possible he was being loose on the flop and aggressive on the flop/turn with something like A8s, K8s, or Q8s -- an unlikely possibility; I thought he had a Jack or Ten in his hand. It was also possible, but again unlikely, that he was on a flush draw and being very aggressive or even maniacal -- again, I wasn't confident about my read at all.

So, with all that being said, I thought it was unlikely and would make "little sense" that I would be ahead. However, I could at least see a logical scenario in which I would be ahead (with the hands I mentioned above), and that, based on this, I had a 10% chance to win (maybe this in itself was bad judgment). BUT, I didn't want to commit the cardinal sin of folding a winning hand in a large pot.

Please, let me know if I'm going about this all wrong.

Also, I really can't answer the rest of your questions about what this player was capable of doing. I just didn't know.

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I thought it was possible he was being loose on the flop and aggressive on the flop/turn with something like . . . Q8s

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/images/graemlins/blush.gif /images/graemlins/crazy.gif Well, I guess I should have seen this would have been a straight!

The continuation bet on the flop was marginal. It's almost 100% likely someone has caught a part of that flop. JT and two spades hits a large variety of hands people call raises with.

Give it up on the turn. At best you're behind QJ and have your AK for outs. Mostly likely you're behind AJ or KJ. Plus, one of your gutshot outs could be tainted if someone's drawing to a flush. I'd say you should assume your draw has 5 outs AT BEST. That's not enough to call the turn. Your gutshot is the only one with good implied odds. Hitting the A or K is more likely to have reverse implied odds.

And definitely fold that river. Your ace-high is so unlikely to be good here. I know you've read folding the winning hand is a HUGE mistake and all that... but think about the way the hand played out. Does it make sense for him to continue betting and betting here without being paired? He could have checked behind on the turn or the river, but he kept firing.

If your A or K paired up on the river, then of course call it down. You have some chance of winning there. And if ANY Q came on the river, assume you're ahead and raise. It's unlikely he had a flush draw here.

[fizzleboink]

The flop and turn look pretty close. That flop will hit a lot of hands but I think they'll both fold 15% of the time and you have a decent number of outs so you would call a bet anyways.

Once he bets the turn I think you can rule out any sort of draw. However, I think you can call the turn. If you give yourself 2.5 outs for the overcards and 3.5 for the gutshot, you have a clear call. Come on guys, you can't eliminate your spade outs completely because they won't always have that flush draw.

River is a clear fold for me though. He isn't bluffing this whole way with a draw unless he's a nut, and you don't know if he is. I think people take the "don't fold for one bet in a large pot" a little too far. Analyze what has happened in previous betting rounds, and put your opponent on a range of hands. Does a draw fit the action? Nope. So why call?

[aces_dad]

I agree the turn outs should be at least 8 (reduced from 10 due to the spade) giving odds to call in this pot.

But I also don't think you're good on the river often enough to call this, especially with a 'reasonable' read on villian. I only call this down against known LAG's who I've seen bluff bet / bluff raise (which he did on the flop) UI. In this case I can lay it down without too much grief.

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I agree the turn outs should be at least 8 (reduced from 10 due to the spade) giving odds to call in this pot.

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I hesitated over it in the event, but on the fly thought I had correct odds. I had calculated what I thought was a conservative 6 outs: 3 for the gutshot minus spade + 3 for the possibly tainted overcards. Thus, if pot odds (not even including implied odds, which are decent with GS) are more than 7-to-1, I thought a call would be correct. And here's what they were:

Flop: 11.5-to-1 immediate pot odds.
Turn: 7.75-to-1 immediate pot odds.

So I called. If I was wrong and there were 5 outs, then I needed more than 8.5-to-1 to call (again, not including implied odds) on the flop, making the call correct, but making the turn call more questionable (still, with implied odds I think it's correct).

[@bsolute_luck]

the point made i believe Sklansky and Miller's point wasn't pointed to when all you can beat is a bluff, but say you had AT- i believe it would be bad to fold this river because of the reasons you said, or a smaller pocket pair, or a T-weak kicker getting goofy.

or if you have QQ
and the board is (in order of streets) KQ7TJ and you get c/r or donkbet into and the pot is &gt;10BBs. sure you could lose to an A, but there are other hands we could have that you beat, so you don't fold there.

i think the bigger leak is to be calling these hands thinking "hey may be bluffing and the pot is big" than "i have nothing, i don't think he's bluffing though he may be, i'm still going to fold".

[aces_dad]

I think 6 outs on the turn is conservative enough to make your odds calculations good enough to call.

Now to the river, unless villian is a complete LAG I've seen bluff bet and bluff raise (which he did on the flop) with nothing I save the BB as I don't see you being good here often at all.

[Eeegah]

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the point made i believe Sklansky and Miller's point wasn't pointed to when all you can beat is a bluff, but say you had AT- i believe it would be bad to fold this river because of the reasons you said, or a smaller pocket pair, or a T-weak kicker getting goofy.

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I believe the words in SSHE are to not fold decent hands for one bet on the river when the pot is large. In an example like this where someone's been shlogging on the PFR the entire hand, I think it's fair to give the guy credit for at least pottom pair.

This is one of those places where misinterpereting SSHE can cost you a fair bit of money over the long run /images/graemlins/smile.gif

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i think the bigger leak is to be calling these hands thinking "hey may be bluffing and the pot is big" than "i have nothing, i don't think he's bluffing though he may be, i'm still going to fold".

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Now to the river, unless villian is a complete LAG I've seen bluff bet and bluff raise (which he did on the flop) with nothing I save the BB as I don't see you being good here often at all.

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I believe the words in SSHE are to not fold decent hands for one bet on the river when the pot is large. In an example like this where someone's been shlogging on the PFR the entire hand, I think it's fair to give the guy credit for at least pottom pair.

This is one of those places where misinterpereting SSHE can cost you a fair bit of money over the long run /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Clearly, the above represents the consensus (if anyone disagrees or has something to add, by all means pipe up), and thus I need to get much better at judging when to make this river call. Thanks very much for the really good posts.

[Buccaneer]

Stone, I think that when you play this hand you have to remember that this is a drawing hand. You are agressive early and loose that agressiveness late in the hand when villian begins to get agressive. I think that his hand improved in value and yours continued to decrease. He raised you on the flop. If he is "reasonable" then he got a piece of it. I play the hand like you did but I fold the turn to his bet. If I called then I check the river and fold to a bet. Is there a chance that your hand is best, yes. But I do not think it is good 10%, or even 5%. You have ace high, the board shows a possible 2pair, trips, fh, straight and even quads. I think you have to have a some kind of hand to expect to win 10% of the time when you think you are beat.

[ QUOTE ]
Stone, I think that when you play this hand you have to remember that this is a drawing hand. You are agressive early and loose that agressiveness late in the hand when villian begins to get agressive. I think that his hand improved in value and yours continued to decrease. He raised you on the flop. If he is "reasonable" then he got a piece of it. I play the hand like you did but I fold the turn to his bet. If I called then I check the river and fold to a bet. Is there a chance that your hand is best, yes. But I do not think it is good 10%, or even 5%. You have ace high, the board shows a possible 2pair, trips, fh, straight and even quads. I think you have to have a some kind of hand to expect to win 10% of the time when you think you are beat.

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Great points. Thank you.

[bozlax]

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Only played 20 hands with Villain. 23.1/0/1.29. Seemed like a reasonable player.

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Seems like a sLPP to me (for what stats are worth after 20 hands). His flop raise means he has something, here, but you're getting 11:1 (maybe 12, if MP3 sticks around) so call to see the turn.

When you're not improved on the turn I'd check/fold. Even assuming you're behind to just a pair (which I think is a stretch against somebody who looks this passive), your odds are razor-thin calling to 6 full outs, and I think you have to discount those outs for fear of reverse-domination, putting you on the wrong side of the odds.

[TeeVeeDude]

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Maybe bad thinking on my part, I don't know. I keep thinking about the advice I've seen in Sklansky and Miller's material about how it is a "catastrophe" when you fold a winning hand in a big pot, but it is a "small mistake" when you lose one bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is sound thinking, but it doesn't apply here. It's a catastraphe when you fold the winning hand, but there's almost no chance that you have the winning hand in this case. You're behind any hand with a single 4, T, or J and you're behind any pocket pair.

Personally, after being raised on the flop I would have folded the turn UI. And you were UI -- that 4 didn't do you any good.