AQ - fold the flop?

[mxer7734]

Was this hand a fold on the flop and was my PF raise here correct from the BB? My reasons for continuing were the two overs, and BDSD worth a total of about 7.5 outs. Villian was tight-passive so I thought he had at least a pair of tens and maybe I should discount my two overs outs to 3 instead of 6 just incase he had the unlikely two pair. On the turn I picked up the straight draw adding 2.5 more outs totaling 10 outs or only 7 if you discount the overs outs. Is my thinking correct here?


Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, CO folds, SB calls.

Flop: (7 SB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls, UTG+1 folds.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (6.50 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 7.50 BB

[hemstock]

I'm propably raising against 3 opponents. If he reraises you, fold or fold the turn UI. If not, you can get a free card or a free showdown.

[Kumubou]

Raising here is only good in one of two situtations (that I can think of right now):

SB is FoS and raising would get UTG+1 to fold a better hand (any pair).

Raising would get UTG+1 to fold a hand that you would not beat by spiking a Q or an A. These hands would be AT, A4, A3, QT, Q4, Q3. I just do not see much value in raising here, especially if SB already has a made hand. The free card/free showdown may have some value, but there is no guarantee you will get it.

My default line here would be to peel the flop (that is fairly close) and fold the turn UI. This can change depending on game conditions, reads, phase of the moon, etc..

-K

[Eeegah]

I like every street. The turn is somewhat borderline since it's a small pot though; 7 outs is 5.6:1 which is just over what we're being offered, but if we make our straight we'll pick up an extra bet on the river so I'm fine with it.

[Bodhi]

I fold the turn because we don't have pot-odds to call.

[Bodhi]

That'd be nice if we had 7 outs. Remember that a split is also possible if the villain has a hand like AT and we hit the gutshot.

[bjarne]

Since your read on villain is that he is passive I'd raise the flop for a free card and fold the river UI.

[Eeegah]

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That'd be nice if we had 7 outs. Remember that a split is also possible if the villain has a hand like AT and we hit the gutshot.

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Not just like AT but specifically AT out of all the hands an SB could do this with, unless Weak-Tight here suddenly decides that a pair of 4s is perfect for betting into a PFR. You can discount it to 6.5 if you want but even then we're still making it up when we raise the river, presuming he makes his crying call. It's close, but I think it's just barely +EV.

Edit: Villain could reasonably have AT, KT, QT, JT, T9, T4, T3, 43, 44, 33 or a weakly played TT. Only one of those would cause us to split.

You had 10 outs to begin with. You're holding two BDSDs (A34 and TQA), and the pot is giving you 4.5:1 (to your 3.6:1). You call this flop without a problem. I was considering a raise, but you'd kill your odds by doing that.

On the turn you actually LOSE outs (1.5 to be exact, your other BDSD is now gone), so you're down to 7.5. That gives you 5.6:1, while the pot gives 5.5:1. Fold on the turn.

EDIT: Eeegah makes a good point. 7.5 outs, not 7--we're talking about the pot giving you 5.5:1, while your hand has less than that (that imaginary half an out makes all the difference). Call that turn, fold the river. You played it fine.

I've been playing 0.5/0.1 for a couple of months now and have read and tried to apply the teachings of SSHE. I read this forum regularly and think I am ready to expose my thought processes to ridicule. So here goes my first post...

The overs cannot be worth the full 6 outs, villain could have AT or QT (or even AK depending on the read). SSHE suggests discounting to 3. Does that apply HU? The A34 draw is worth 1 out and the TQA draw only 0.5 out. Best guess is therefore 4.5 to 6ish outs. Only if there are 6 outs are the pot odds good enough to call (and we don't know what UTG+1 will do).

After the turn, the straight draw is worth 3 - discounting 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif. The overs no more than 3 (we could be behind 2 pair, A /images/graemlins/heart.gif puts 3 to the flush on board and any other A may be a split. So that is 6 outs. If I'm right, it doesn't look like there are the odds to call the turn (even taking into account an extra bet we might make on the river if we hit).

For what it's worth, my preferred play would be to raise the flop (i) to fold UTG+1 and (ii) to put SB on a hand. Based on the read he is likely to fold hands like AK, AQ, KQ etc (which being passive he may not have raised preflop). If he bets out on the turn I would fold.

Am I just justifying a natural weak-tight tendency? Is there a hole in my thought processes?

[MATT111]

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You had 10 outs to begin with.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please explain.

[imported_The Vibesman]

I think the flop call is fine, but I'm usually folding the turn. It's a close decision in terms of odds, but the pot is too small for me to worry about it.

[ QUOTE ]
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You had 10 outs to begin with.

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Please explain.

[/ QUOTE ]

I meant 9, because 6 + 1.5 + 1.5 = 9.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't BDSDs 1.5 outs apiece? Or is this number situational?

[davelin]

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You had 10 outs to begin with.

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Please explain.

[/ QUOTE ]

I meant 9, because 6 + 1.5 + 1.5 = 9.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't BDSDs 1.5 outs apiece? Or is this number situational?

[/ QUOTE ]

Discount the overcard outs.

[WSOP Bound]

:grunch:

I agree that you can't completely count the 6 outs for your overs. There is the chance that villian has a hand like AT that reverse dominates you, that he has two pair or that he hit a set. I would probably count 4 outs for the overs. As for your BDSD there is one, but it's ugly. This is at best .5 out, maybe more like .25 since you are often going to split the one card wheel, or even lose to a 6. Therefore you have a total of about 4.25 outs. You are okay to call this flop, but I might try raising to push UTG+1 off of hands like AT/A3/A4, although I'm not sure your getting him off those hands anyways.

Now off to see what everyone else said /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[deception5]

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Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't BDSDs 1.5 outs apiece? Or is this number situational?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an overestimation. If you have no gaps like QJT you can count 1.5 outs as there are 4 cards which will improve your hand on the turn. Usually when there's a gap like QT9 you should count it for more like 1 out. When it's AQT where you need 2 very specific cards, it's only worth about .5 outs. This would also be the case for AKT/AJT.

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Does that apply HU? The A34 draw is worth 1 out and the TQA draw only 0.5 out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can I ask how you came to these numbers? Simply for personal knowledge, of course--I skipped SSHE and went right to TOP.

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Best guess is therefore 4.5 to 6ish outs. Only if there are 6 outs are the pot odds good enough to call (and we don't know what UTG+1 will do).

[/ QUOTE ]

At best, your pot odds on the flop are no more than 5.5:1 if UTG+1 calls. 6 outs means you're getting 6.7:1--so this is a clear fold by your logic. Yes?

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Am I just justifying a natural weak-tight tendency? Is there a hole in my thought processes?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think villain's read (tight-passive) needs to be considered more. A raise on the flop would actually not be a bad idea. Otherwise, I'm curious about your odds-counting for the sake of learning.

Nice post. It got me thinking a lot.

So between you and davelin's responses I've noticed I'm giving Hero too many outs. Lets take a more conservative number, like 4 or 5. (3 overcard outs, plus the two weird BDSDs).

Based on outs alone then, Hero folds this flop. But read on villain is tight-passive. Does that call for a raise?

A greater question here, then: Is there any way to reconcile the human aspect of this hand with the mathematical aspect? Can we quantify villain's playing style in any way in our calculations?

[WSOP Bound]

[ QUOTE ]
This is an overestimation. If you have no gaps like QJT you can count 1.5 outs as there are 4 cards which will improve your hand on the turn. Usually when there's a gap like QT9 you should count it for more like 1 out. When it's AQT where you need 2 very specific cards, it's only worth about .5 outs. This would also be the case for AKT/AJT.

[/ QUOTE ]

It is also the case for the A34 since you need a 2 and a 5 specifically. Also on the A34 if it comes in you split if SB has an A in his hand.

[davelin]

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Based on outs alone then, Hero folds this flop. But read on villain is tight-passive. Does that call for a raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

A tight-passive bets into a pre-flop raiser on the flop. What does a raise accomplish here?

[WSOP Bound]

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Based on outs alone then, Hero folds this flop. But read on villain is tight-passive. Does that call for a raise?

[/ QUOTE ]


I like the raise because it makes it possible to clear out UTG+1 and you have position to take a free card on the turn. Given your read on SB I think that most of the time the raise will scare him enough to get you the free card. The question would be how often do you get SB to fold. Of course that depends on your read of him.

Earlier someone mentioned that a raise would cut your odds on the flop which is true, but if it gets you the free card you are getting 4.5:1 to see the river. Getting 4.7:1 odds to improve by the river I think this is your best shot at this hand IF your reads indicate that it will work with high frequency. If not it's razor thin. The pot is giving you 8:1 to call here and your hand has 9.8:1 odds of coming in on the very next card. I always have a hard time with this, but believe that you need to be able to extract one additional BB when you hit in order to break even here. Although implied odds may give me a very slight edge here I think I either try for the free card or drop this here and now.



[ QUOTE ]
A greater question here, then: Is there any way to reconcile the human aspect of this hand with the mathematical aspect? Can we quantify villain's playing style in any way in our calculations?

[/ QUOTE ]

Good question, but one that I've yet been able to answer no matter how many times I've tried. It is starting to appear to me that the easiest and most effective way to reconcile the "human factor" is to do the math to determine your options then use your reads to determine the most effective play against the particular opponent that you are playing.

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[ QUOTE ]
Based on outs alone then, Hero folds this flop. But read on villain is tight-passive. Does that call for a raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

A tight-passive bets into a pre-flop raiser on the flop. What does a raise accomplish here?

[/ QUOTE ]

What if the raise on the flop gets SB to fold? Read on him is tight-passive--raising the flop is more likely to scare him out of the hand than normal.

[ QUOTE ]
Good question, but one that I've yet been able to answer no matter how many times I've tried. It is starting to appear to me that the easiest and most effective way to reconcile the "human factor" is to do the math to determine your options then use your reads to determine the most effective play against the particular opponent that you are playing.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm guessing that this is one of those things (like the stock market or w/e) that is too complex to transfer to a mathematical basis. The best course of action is yours: use the math and supplement it with any reads. After all, the math is concrete, but opponents don't always stick to one style of play consistently.

[imported_The Vibesman]

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Based on outs alone then, Hero folds this flop. But read on villain is tight-passive. Does that call for a raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

A tight-passive bets into a pre-flop raiser on the flop. What does a raise accomplish here?

[/ QUOTE ]

What if the raise on the flop gets SB to fold? Read on him is tight-passive--raising the flop is more likely to scare him out of the hand than normal.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this could work and will sometimes, but the pot seems too small to attempt this. When it gets to you on the flop, it's 8sb or 4bb. If you raise the flop and he calls, will you bet the turn? If you are trying to get him to fold, it would seem you must. If you do, that's 2bb so far in an attempt to win a 4bb pot. I don't think this works often enough to make up for the investment due to the pot size here.

This actually highlights the problem with my thinking, then. I tend to raise in order to knock out a tighter player; once he calls, however, its a whole other story. What do I do on the turn? River? Why did I invest so much in such a little pot?

Thanks for the good point.

[ QUOTE ]
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Does that apply HU? The A34 draw is worth 1 out and the TQA draw only 0.5 out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can I ask how you came to these numbers? Simply for personal knowledge, of course--I skipped SSHE and went right to TOP.

[/ QUOTE ]

A no gap BD straight is worth 1.5 (eg. 234), a 1 gap is worth 1 (eg. A34) and a two gap is worth 0.5 (eg. TQA)

[ QUOTE ]
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Best guess is therefore 4.5 to 6ish outs. Only if there are 6 outs are the pot odds good enough to call (and we don't know what UTG+1 will do).

[/ QUOTE ]

At best, your pot odds on the flop are no more than 5.5:1 if UTG+1 calls. 6 outs means you're getting 6.7:1--so this is a clear fold by your logic. Yes?

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you confusing the turn? On the flop there is already 7SB in the pot when Hero acts - so there is enough for a call (with 6 outs).

Thanks for the input - by the way most people here would recommend getting SSHE!

[Raza]

Regarding the backdoor straight outs:

For A43 you will need a 2 to give you a gutshot or a 5 to give you a gutshot. So 4/47 * 4/46 + 4/47 * 4/46. This is something like 67 to 1.

For AQT it's basically the same. A K gives you a gutshot, and a J as well.



Together they are 33 to 1, which is about 1 out.

(You can just treat A34 as a 2 gapper since a 2 does not give you and OESD, so .5 + .5 = 1 for both draws)

Add 3 or 4 outs for your overcards and 4 or 5 outs sounds about right. I would fold the flop.