Hmmmmmm....

[Mens Rea]

5-10 B&M 9 handed. Hero has @$6000. Villan (older guy, played with him before, seems pretty tight, overbets, but every once in a while he can get creative if his opponent is weak - he has seen me play and should read me as relatively solid LAG) has $5000ish.

2 limpers to hero in MP3 who raises with 66 in MP3 to $35. Villan in SB raises to $80. All fold. Hero calls.

Flop 2, 5, 6.

Villan bets $200. Hero raises to $500. Villan calls.

Turn K.

Check. Hero bets $750. Villan calls.

River Q. No flushes.

Check. Hero bets $1000. Villan pushes.

What would you do here? (Results to follow.)

[Allinlife]

call in dark

[ObnxNole]

I look at my hole cards first.

[Mens Rea]

Why do you think the title of the post was Hmmmmm....

Seriously though - my fault - my cards were 66 - top set on the flop. (OP edited.)

[ObnxNole]

If the flop were K Q 6 then I could get away from bottom set in a reraised pot given the stack sizes. A reraise to $80 p flop could mean a lot of hands, however. Given the betting and texture of the board I would probably call his all-in unless I had a great read and knew he had KK or QQ.

My guess is he had QQ. Hoped it worked out for you.

-Obnxnole-

[flawless_victory]

VERY EASY FOLD

[The Ocho]

If you're going to raise the flop, make it a meaty one.

Folding the river is a good idea, although his check raise thingy is a bit suspect to me. You must have looked eager to bet. I assume you called and got shown KKK.

I would fold. I think he has KK and turned top set. Your action post flop indicates you have a set and he represented an overpair with preflop and flop play. He could have QQ but I think KK is more likely here. Maybe I am giving him too much respect.

[gol4pro]

Although you've been 2-outed here more often than not, You're going to end up paying him off here a good amount of the time. I can't do any math right now, but this pot is big, and I would really like to throw up here. Damn this sucks beyond belief.

I'm thinking his range here on the turn is AA/KK/QQ. You've got 2/3 beat, and they're both more likely than KK (by a long shot) because there's the K out there.

I still think you need to bet more on the turn. If for some reason an oddly played AK/KQ is still around, then we need to extract max value.

Same goes with AA. The weak reraise preflop also means more likely KK/AA in my opinion.

I know this is really easy to say after-the-fact, but are you missing that much value here by checking the river? God I know that seems really weak tight, but the only hand you really have beat anymore is AA, and you're going to lose a whole lot more to KK/QQ than you're going to win from AA. Does this make any sense? Or just me being weak-tight?

Seems like unless you have VERY good reason to put him on AA here, it's a crying, but brilliant fold. I may throw up after making it though.

The real question here is.... does he think that your value bet is weakness and is making a play at you? Or is he just getting value from top set?

I think I may make one of those calls here where I call "knowing" that I'm beat, but do it anyway just to preserve my sanity.

That's a really tough spot... results should be great.

My predictions (in order of likelyhood)

1) Hero calls and is shown KK
2) Hero calls and is shown QQ
3) Hero calls and is shown AA
4) Hero folds and is shown KK/QQ

[elcheapo]

Wouldn't it make sense to check river. He doesn't have AK or AQ and he'd have to have specifically AA to pay you off at all.If the river wasn't a queen then I would value bet but everything in the hand smells like QQ-AA.

[amoeba]

this river is a very easy check behind.

[Mens Rea]

I agree that I should have checked behind on the river. The reason I didn't is because a few hands earlier, I checked behind on a paired board with an A high flush and was shown the K high flush - I wanted value for this hand.

That being said, I recognize the mistake. What would you do if you made the same one?

[elcheapo]

Yoy play at higher stakes then me and instinctively I would value bet my set but once he checkraises after all that strength you showed and that board you're toast.

[GimmeDaWatch]

Checking behind the river with a set sucks but I think it is warranted. Given that you bet, I think this is one of the easier set folds that could be made. Why on earth would he check-raise allin w/AA? If his being "tight" means no re-raise without big pair or AK, I dont see how you can win here. It has to be KK, as I dont see how he calls the turn w/QQ.

[Mens Rea]

After thinking for 2 minutes or so, I barfed on the table and mucked.

He showed KK.

In retrospect, this fold seems much easier than it was at the time. This might be the only time I've folded top set on the flop when there is no reasonable draw that gets there.

One further question - what if he pushes the river instead of checking? Is this fold still as easy?

[The Ocho]

[ QUOTE ]
One further question - what if he pushes the river instead of checking? Is this fold still as easy?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's much easier to fold if he moves all in instead of checking.

[fsuplayer]

i think you played the hand perfectly.

the chances of a worse hand check raising you are next to zero, and AA and AK will pay off $1k there.

[Mens Rea]

I think I disagree here. It seems much more likely to me that AA could push the river, but that only KK or QQ would checkraise it. What I mean by this is that I am much more likely to be able to beat a river push than a river checkraise all-in.

Am I totally off here?

[The Ocho]

That would be a strange push for AA or AK. They would typically check and call, as fsuplayer said. A push with those hands would certainly be considered a bluff, but those hands are too strong to bluff. The player you describe wouldn't be doing this.

Then again, I've been huffing pain thinner all night so what do I know.

[Mens Rea]

Well,Ocho, I've been eating pain killers like M&Ms, so I guess we are in the same, spinny little boat.

Nice job. To me whether it is tougher to fold to the all-in or the check raise depends on who I am playing against. I never like folding sets, who does. You just have to fall back on your reads. With this guy I would find it easier to fold to the check raise, but I would still fold to both with this type of player.