A Time to Kill

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

The 10/20 live game with a 1/2 kill. Full table. Several very loose preflop players -- lots of calling, five and six-way pots.

SB is an older gentleman who has been Loose/Passive.
BB has been somewhat loose/aggressive and may be tilting.
KP (Kill Poster) is an older woman that I had originally stereotyped as loose passive but has actually proven herself to be tight aggressive. She is CO and won the previous pot so she posts $15 for this hand that plays as $15/$30.
Hero is UTG+2 with K /images/graemlins/club.gif 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif.

Preflop: UTG folds, UTG+1 (very loose preflop player) calls, Hero calls, 3 folds, KP checks, button folds, SB calls, BB raises , UTG+1 calls, hero calls, KP raises, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, hero calls.

Flop (15SB): 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

SB checks, UTG+1 checks, hero bets, KP raises , SB calls, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (10.5BB): 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif

Hero checks, KP bets, SB calls, hero ????.

Comments?

[Entity]

Fold preflop. I don't see how you can fold the turn and raising sucks.

Rob

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold preflop. I don't see how you can fold the turn and raising sucks.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

I knew the preflop non-fold would be the first comment -- and I probably agree... I was running hot and that seems to influence me a lot more when I am playing live... maybe cold logic and reason is easier in front of the computer screen...

Although, I think it is easier to react to individuals and their behavior live. In this hand, I put both of these players on very specific holdings based on the action...

What do you think of the flop?

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold preflop. I don't see how you can fold the turn and raising sucks.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

I give the hero 1.5 K outs, 2 Three outs, and 9 crub outs. That plus checkraising the turn might clean up 1.5 more K outs and the something like 5-10% of the time hero has the best hand--that killer limp/3-bet looks like 87s cheese--I think I talked myself into checkraising the turn with a weak hand and lots of outs to try to induce "big folds."

[istewart]

[ QUOTE ]
I give the hero 1.5 K outs, 2 Three outs

[/ QUOTE ]

Just curious, what do you put Villain on that the 3s are full outs but the kings are only half outs? I counted it like this the first time around but then disagreed.

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I give the hero 1.5 K outs, 2 Three outs

[/ QUOTE ]

Just curious, what do you put Villain on that the 3s are full outs but the kings are only half outs? I counted it like this the first time around but then disagreed.

[/ QUOTE ]

SB, not the villain.

[JacksonTens]

He is saying that it much more likely somehow else has a K than a 3.

I'd call the turn, just not enough bang for my buck to c/r although a c/r is creative, and not out of the Q.

JT /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fold preflop. I don't see how you can fold the turn and raising sucks.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

I give the hero 1.5 K outs, 2 Three outs, and 9 crub outs. That plus checkraising the turn might clean up 1.5 more K outs and the something like 5-10% of the time hero has the best hand--that killer limp/3-bet looks like 87s cheese--I think I talked myself into checkraising the turn with a weak hand and lots of outs to try to induce "big folds."

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you have the best hand here even 5%. I also don't think you're getting a "big fold" from KP (a TAG who overlimp-reraised PF) very often.

I'm willing to be convinced, but it's gonna take some effort. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Rob

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fold preflop. I don't see how you can fold the turn and raising sucks.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

I give the hero 1.5 K outs, 2 Three outs, and 9 crub outs. That plus checkraising the turn might clean up 1.5 more K outs and the something like 5-10% of the time hero has the best hand--that killer limp/3-bet looks like 87s cheese--I think I talked myself into checkraising the turn with a weak hand and lots of outs to try to induce "big folds."

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you have the best hand here even 5%. I also don't think you're getting a "big fold" from KP (a TAG who overlimp-reraised PF) very often.

I'm willing to be convinced, but it's gonna take some effort. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

For what its worth, I expected KP to have a big pair (Tens or better). Limp-reraise seems crazy with TT/JJ, but the table wasn't showing a whole lot of confidence pre-flop. I would have been shocked by an 87s type of hand -- but I had laid down a busted super draw (straigh and flush) on the river to her a few hands earlier. (I put SB on flopping the flush draw).

I would agree that my chance of having the best hand on the turn was <10% and there was no way KP was folding to a check-raise on the turn.

[callmedonnie]

I don't like PF, and I'm not sure that I like the flop. Given the action PF I think a bet is sure to get raised. I also don't know if you have any clean outs to two pair, because a King is very possibly going to give someone Kings up with a better kicker. I think a flop fold is decent.

On the turn though I am not going anywhere. I am prepared to c/f the river w/out a flush. Unless maybe a King falls, because then the pot is so big that it could be worth it when KP has queens.

SB I am putting on small to mid pocket pair that he has to call down with, or maybe 56.

BTW, whatever happened to big blind on this one?

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

I think the flop bet was necessary. KP was undoubtedly betting if checked to and I would have had no idea where she was at. Once I bet, I am not sure if she was definitely raising with an AK/AQ hand (50/50?) but she was definitely raising with her overpair.

I also wasn't so upset with her raise -- facing two bets, she likely forced a better K (and other overcards) to fold --- increasing my outs.

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

Hero calls.

River (13.5 BB): 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Any reason not to bet it out here?

[callmedonnie]

Not that I can think of. Is small blind the type to just call w/ trips fours? Because I am pretty sure that barring this, you should have the best hand.

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

[ QUOTE ]
BTW, whatever happened to big blind on this one?

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess this response is late, but he folded on the flop... I assume two big cards that were scared of the aggression on that board (and likely dominated).