Best river line...

[ggbman]

Party Poker 20/40 Hold'em (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (3 SB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, Hero calls, BB folds.

River: (9.50 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, ...



Let's assume he has a 5 95% of the time, what's your line?

[Cancuk]

hero checks, bb checks, UTG raises, Hero raises...
If he has a 5 95% of the time, out of that 95% of the time how often does he open limp with Q5 or 53 UTG? I think its more plausable for him to have either 33 or 55, although if its' four handed their probably raising those.

cheers.

[ggbman]

I don't mind discussing the possibility of him having other hands than a 5. Does this mean if you c/r and he 3 bets, your not capping?

[imported_leader]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's assume he has a 5 95% of the time, what's your line?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd bet and hope for it to go call-raise in which case I'd 3-bet.

[Cancuk]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't mind discussing the possibility of him having other hands than a 5. Does this mean if you c/r and he 3 bets, your not capping?

[/ QUOTE ]

If i c/r, and he three bets, no, i'm not capping..if this wasn't 20/40 i think my opinion would change.

cheers.

[wackjob]

I like the river C/R &amp; just calling a 3-bet without a very strong read that villain would cap w/o a boat.

[Catt]

What about the turn call? Bit thin, no? Getting an immediate 7.5:2 with an 8-outer you make this call knowing you need to make up 2.5+ BB on the river if BB drops and you still risk getting 3-bet or worse. The second-most sucky thing happened in that BB folded so now you're HU. Any thoughts on the turn?

As to the river, if he's a thinking opponent I think it unlikely you're getting 3 bets in on the river. I go for the check-raise since I think it is most likely to get you 2 bets -- I would think that to a mildly observant opponent, your flop bet-call; turn call 2 cold; and lead on the river makes your hand either transparent or a desperation bluff and unless he has a boat he's better off calling in that situation. If you think he is likely to make a mistake by raising a lead, then go for it and make it three; but I'd want a read on him that he is a bit over-aggro and or a bit too quick to pull the trigger when he feels he has a strong hand.

Since you checked the river, you're obviously C/Ring. With a 4-bet cap online, I wouldn't rule out capping if three-bet -- but there aren't many hands a reasonable player should be three-betting your river C/R with that you beat. If he's reasonable and he three-bets you, I'd say there's a good chance he doesn't have a 5 at all but instead has 33 (but I presume he would raise this pre-flop 4-handed).

Bah, I am rambling and a bit confused by his play -- I'd call the three-bet if it comes and would be intensely interested to see his hand to better understand what sort of player I'm up against. Even a somewhat shaky read on the guy might convince me you're better off capping the river when three-bet.

[Kakafoni]

I would bet out on the river b/c i think there is a reaonable chance he'll check behind on the river.

Since u called 2 cold on turn you got to have something, and if he has a 5, the most logic hand would be 64 or 5x (less chance) since u commpleted from SB. If u completed with a Qx, the kicker would probably be too low to warrant a coldcall on turn.

If he raises i would just call.

Btw, maybe he had AA and tried the old limp/reraise

[wackjob]

I think you can count on villain betting the river when checked to at least 50%, thus go for that C/R every time.

[cdxx]

check, check, bet, raise, re-raise, call, call.

[ggbman]

Some quick thought. Villian was relatively passive pre-flop, so his limping range was wide, although i don't know if he'd open limp 56s etc...

I think my hand is very well disguised here. When considering how many bets to go on the river, think of how harmless that 2 looks to his if indeed turned trip fives.

Now that people point it out, his play does appear more consistent with 33 than i had noticed earlier, that makes the river action a little more tricky. I'll let a few more people give their take before i post results.

[RunDownHouse]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd bet and hope for it to go call-raise in which case I'd 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
check, check, bet, raise, re-raise, call, call.

[/ QUOTE ]
BB folded.

I c/r, because I think I want at least 2 bets going in and no more than 3. If he's almost always got a 5, then no way does he check behind. In this case, we can c/r without the fear of having to call a cap, so we are assured of 2-3 bets going in. If we donk, we get 1 bet in almost never, 2 bets some of the time, 3 some of the time, and 4 some of the time. The problem is that we have no control over when 4 goes in, making it more likely that we pay off the most when we are the most likely to be behind.

I have no idea how likely a boat here is, really, so if that "most likely to be behind" is low enough, then we don't care about 4 bets going in. But I like being able to control it at 2-3.

[partygirluk]

I doubt he has a 5 here. AA or KK seem likely to me

[ggbman]

[ QUOTE ]
What about the turn call? Bit thin, no? Getting an immediate 7.5:2 with an 8-outer you make this call knowing you need to make up 2.5+ BB on the river if BB drops and you still risk getting 3-bet or worse.

[/ QUOTE ]

Generally, i don't think this is that close only having to make up 2.5BB. Usually the guy who bet the turn will call for the river as well, so usually i only have to make up 1.5Bb's, and if my read is right that the cold-caller has trips, this is a piece of cake.

[Trix]

Check-raise, your hand is pretty transparant if you lead. Dont cap if 3bet.

[Catt]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What about the turn call? Bit thin, no? Getting an immediate 7.5:2 with an 8-outer you make this call knowing you need to make up 2.5+ BB on the river if BB drops and you still risk getting 3-bet or worse.

[/ QUOTE ]

Generally, i don't think this is that close only having to make up 2.5BB. Usually the guy who bet the turn will call for the river as well, so usually i only have to make up 1.5Bb's, and if my read is right that the cold-caller has trips, this is a piece of cake.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yah, I probably call this too pretty routinely. I am more worried about having to put in three bets on the turn which would be tough to make up, and of course the second-worst thing to happen happened (i.e., a fold so you lose an expected bet and also lose a potential river caller). I was just surprised that no one mentioned it since this is some funny action on a funny board after a funny pre-flop round.