Newbie Stud Hands

[rory]

Two hands:

First hand.

50/100 live mixed holdem and stud game, 10 ante, 15 bring in. 9 handed.
2/images/graemlins/club.gif brings it in. Loose Player 1 (LP1) raises with a T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif up, Likes To See Fourth Player 1 (LTSFP1) cold calls with a 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Very Good Player (VGP) makes it 3 bets with the K/images/graemlins/club.gif up. I have the 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif up and T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif in the hole. One heart is out, as is one ten and a five. I'm positive all players involved in the pot so far, barring the bring-in, will call if I call. Do I call?

I catch the 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif on fourth, VGP catches the K/images/graemlins/heart.gif to make an open pair of kings. LTSFP1 catches the A/images/graemlins/spade.gif to go with his 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif. VGP bets-- am I going to the river here, even though VGP could have trips and LTSFP1 behind me might be drawing to a higher flush?

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Second hand.

Very aggressive player (VAP) open raises 3 off the bring-in with a 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif up. Reasonable player (RP) 3-bets him with a J up. I have 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif6/images/graemlins/club.gif in the hold with the A/images/graemlins/spade.gif up. 3-bet? What if I am pretty sure VAP will not fold his hand if I 3-bet?

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Thanks, I'm a stud noob and these situations are tough.

[jon_1van]

In the 2nd hand I'm pretty sure you should just fold if your 3-bet won't get you heads up.

The reason A66 does ok versus Higher pairs is that you'll win when you hit the Ace and you'll win when you make some random 2 pair and your opponents higher pair doesn't improve. When you have mulitple opponents your "random 2-pair" value goes down dramatically.

I have to go to work now...more about 1st hand later

[Bartholow]

Short answer: I'd fold both hands.

[TS Clark]

I agree with what was said above. Neither of these hands can stand the kind of heat they're seeing on 3rd. They're marginal/situational hands. Dump 'em on 3rd and save yourself the bets.

[rory]

A lot of the responses said to fold both of these hands. I am confused, because if I run a twodimes simulation on reasonable hands my opponents could have on hand #2, I get this:

pokenum -mc 500000 -7s 6s 6c as - 9h 9s qh - jh js 8d
7-card Stud Hi: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As 6s 6c 164121 32.82 335873 67.17 6 0.00 0.328
9s Qh 9h 162416 32.48 337549 67.51 35 0.01 0.325
Js 8d Jh 173427 34.69 326542 65.31 31 0.01 0.347

Which shows I'm pretty much even money against these hands, even if I cannot force the original 9 to fold by 3-betting. The 50/100 game is a relatively high ante game, so there is $95 in the pot including the bring-in on 3rd. A raise and a reraise means it is $100 to me. If I just call and let the original 9 in, then I am getting almost 3:1 on my money, including the money in the pot already. Since I am even money if the 9 calls anyway, shouldn't I reraise to try to get it heads up? Isn't folding here the worst of my 3 options? I am very confused about how to think about 3rd street play in stud.

In hold 'em, I know that running these sort of showdown simulations is really not useful because the postflop play is so important. But in stud it seems like the hands are not that far apart from each other so that if there is a bunch of money in the pot on 3rd, you can just auto-call down with an overcard and a little pair assuming your opponent doesn't catch a bunch of scary cards.

So.. I'm confused. Help!

7CFAP has a lot of 3rd street advice that seems contradictory and confusing to me, and I am having a hard time figuring out what sort of hands to play when. Sorry for the really basic questions!

[jon_1van]

A big thing you have to consider when viewing these simulations is....will you actually get to the river?

Lets say I have 567 on 3rd and I put my opponent/s on some hand/s

I very quickly go to twodimes and run some simulations and I notice that I'm "even money" to win the hand. Should I continue? Remember that those simulations assume I always see the river. Those simulations include the times I get a brick on 4th and 5th, and then go perfect,perfect to win it on the river. Would I actually continue in the hand after 1 brick?


Now, another thing you have to consider is what if your Ace is in another opponents hand? When your average scenario is just about even money, folding can't cost you much.

[SA125]

[ QUOTE ]
Short answer: I'd fold both hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too. Having AKx, AQx or even QJx as your starting 3 fl against a big pair and possibly another 3 fl is a major difference from T5x. Catching a small blank on 4th hurts one real bad but not the other.

[Spladle Master]

Fold third in the first hand. Call fourth but do not necessarily go to the river.

Hand two you should reraise even if you don't think anyone will fold. Might make someone fold incorrectly later in the hand. Even if this doesn't happen you still aren't sacrificing much (if any) equity with a three-bet. Only way a raise is real bad is if someone has AA in the hole, but I wouldn't be too concerned about that. Ante structure dictates L-A play, so do it. Oh, and if VAP doesn't fold a pair of nines when you reraise you're gonna make a killing in this game.

[Bartholow]

Yeah, I get the boob award for not noticing that the ante is large. So hand 2 is playable for sure, there still might be times I would fold. Hand 1 I definitely fold on 4th and probably still on 3rd.

[Andy B]

"Newbie" playing $50/100. Maybe I should move back east.

Naaaaah.

First, a bit on the nomenclature: someone brings it in for $15, another guy completes the bet to $50, and another guy raises to $100. The raiser has made it two bets, not three. Now if you call the completion a raise, fine--I do that sometimes myself. But when you call a two-bet a three-bet, it confuses me.

Damn hold'em players.

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

Anyway, I call the two bets on third street with a live three-flush and two bad players in. Even though your cards are small, you have a decent amount of equity, and this hand should be reasonably easy to play from here out.

On fourth, we've hit a snag. It is very likely that the very good player has trips. Now a very good player might make it two bets with a big three-flush or some such, but I think that this is less likely given your characterization of the guys who are already in. Against bad players, you don't need to use a whole lot of deception, and presumably the good player knows that. Even if he doesn't have trips, he probably has two big pair, which will still fill up once in a while. The good player most likely has the best hand and the best draw, and as you have observed, you might not even have the second-best draw. I'm not one to fold flush draws on fourth street very often, but I think you have to in this spot.

The second hand is interesting. I am assuming here that you are facing two bets, not three. If you were to raise, it would basically be for the purpose of getting the original raiser out. Since you don't think that that will work, don't raise for that reason. I am always amused by people who try to knock out people who won't be knocked out, especially when it's me. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

I am assuming that all Aces and Sixes are live. If not, fold. Hopefully, spades are reasonably live as well. I think you have enough hand to continue, considering that there is nearly one small bet in ante and bring-in money. One problem with your hand, however, is that you will usually have to act first for the next couple of rounds. If you don't act first, that usually won't be good news.

[Michael Davis]

Hey rory,

Taking a small pair with an ace kicker against two other probable pairs is just fine as long as your cards are live. In fact, although it may be standard operating procedure for many to fold here, it really would be wrong to fold this hand on 3rd. I like threebetting because of the small chance you will pair on board and bet someone off of a hand that should call, and of course the very reasonable chance that you will get the pot heads up (which, to be truthful, is not as important as it seems here).

And, for obvious reasons, twodimes simulations are more useful in stud than in hold 'em, because it will usually be correct to go the river here, and when it is incorrect to chase it becomes painfully obvious by one of your opponents pairing his doorcard.

Also, in a live game, threebetting with a pair of 6s in that spot often does wonders for your image, and it confuses the hell out of your opponents who think they are playing solidly.

-Michael

[Michael Davis]

"Hand two you should reraise even if you don't think anyone will fold. Might make someone fold incorrectly later in the hand. Even if this doesn't happen you still aren't sacrificing much (if any) equity with a three-bet. Only way a raise is real bad is if someone has AA in the hole, but I wouldn't be too concerned about that. Ante structure dictates L-A play, so do it. Oh, and if VAP doesn't fold a pair of nines when you reraise you're gonna make a killing in this game."

Perfect.

-Michael

[rory]

Don't move back East-- well, you could right now and be happy. The Red Sox are doing well. The summertime stifiling humidity is gone. The next few months are the best in New England.. after the humid summer and before the freezing crappy winter. But you will regret it when baseball ends and you are shoveling out your car in the middle of January.

Anyway,

Thank you for the well-reasoned, clear response. And the nomenclature advice. In the first hand, I wound up folding my flush draw on fifth once the big pair caught another one of my hearts, but I felt like I should have folded it on fourth. It is good to see my thought processes are somewhat on the right path. The pot was so huge I couldn't find a fold on fourth.

In the second hand, what sort of probability do I need to assign to knocking out the other player before I try to do it on third? What if I can knock him out 10% of the time? Since twodimes is calling me evenish money in the hand, should I go ahead and try to knock him out even with a 10% shot? 20%? 30%? What about if I have a 6 up instead of the A? Do I just call and try to knock him out on fourth, or is that not good because the J might not be high on fourth and it could wind up that I am the one getting knocked out if the 9 catches a Q or something and bets into the J. If I am unimproved on fifth and drawing live and have a shot to raise and knock the 9 out, do I do it, even if I've caught bad the last two cards, assuming the J's board doesn't look too scary?

When I enter into this hand, should all of my energy be focused on trying to get that probable pair of 9s to fold his 9s so I can play heads up against the pair of jacks?

[rory]

Thank you for the response. Your point about maybe making someone incorrectly fold later on the hand is a good one. What if I have a 6 up instead of an A? Does that change your play on 3rd at all?

[rory]

Hi Michael,

I didn't know you read this forum too. I am curious why you said that it is not as important as it seems to get the pot heads up. According to twodimes I gain about 10% equity in the pot by getting it heads up over having it 3way. Do you mean just on third? Like, even if I don't get it heads up on third, I can get it heads up later so it is not as important to try to get it heads up on third?

How much are people thinking defensively in stud? For instance, it seems like there are some bad situations to deal with if the high card and likely 3rd street bettor is on your left. You have position but it is bad because the guy in between can knock you out by raising the likely bet from the high card. If the high card is to your right or left on third, does that change your play on third? If the high card is on your right, you have a better chance of getting a shot to raise on 4th or even 5th and knock out the other player. However if the high card is on your left, you might be the one folding the second best hand. There was not much discussion of positional considerations like this in 7CFAP.

Thanks, Michael.

[rory]

I knew I was forgetting something when I made the intial post. It takes an hour to write out 3rd street in stud. Yes, all of my cards are live in hand #2. There is one spade out but everything else is live.

[Michael Davis]

Rory,

The only reason I said that it wasn't as important to get the third hand out is because your hand is profitable in either situation. Of course it's better if he leaves, and if you can make some fancy play to knock him out at a later opportunity, by all means do so. However, it would be wrong to say that you must knock this hand out in order to continue playing the hand.

-Michael

[Andy B]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't move back East

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't worry. It's not likely to happen any time soon. I'm content to visit once or twice a year.

[ QUOTE ]
The Red Sox are doing well.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm a Mets fan. I was a freshman at Boston University in 1986. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[ QUOTE ]
But you will regret it when baseball ends and you are shoveling out your car in the middle of January.

[/ QUOTE ]

I live in Minnesota.

On your (66)A hand, I think I'd want to have something like a 1/3 chance of knocking the third man out. I'm just pulling a number out of the air, but as others have pointed out, it isn't that crucial to get him out now, and I wouldn't mind keeping the pot on the small side in case things go south on fourth or fifth street.

You will most likely be high on board on fourth street. If you check and the Jack bets, you can raise and confront the Nine with two bets. That might be your best shot at knocking him out.