Level 8 hand

[Scuba Chuck]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t500 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t1076)
Hero (t762)
SB (t940)
BB (t5222)

Preflop: Hero is button with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t1076, is allin</font>, <font color="black"> Hero?? </font>

It's a certainty that BB will call UTG's push, and I'm pretty certain BB will call even if I am in the pot.

Anybody fold here?

[Isura]

This is tough. If UTG knows that BB is calling, his range should be pretty tight. But if you fold, you have to take the blinds before SB and you two are almost equal, so I think you have to gamble here.

[lastchance]

Tripling up will increase your chances of third place too. But, UTG should have a very good hand here, and you don't rate to be ahead by a lot.

Ok, time to do the analysis:
You fold:
UTG wins: 15% of prize pool
UTG loses: 27% of prize pool

UTG loses about 40% of the time (using the range of A7+, 44+, KJ+)?

.198 of prize pool, 20%.
You call:
You lose: 0% of prize pool
You win, UTG loses: .345% of prize pool
You win, UTG wins: .322 of prize pool

.44*0 + .345*.3+.322*.25 = .184 of prize pool.

My range may be too tight, and I have really approximated my calculations, but it looks like a fold, though I'd have a hard time doing it.

[Scuba Chuck]

Folding = 50% probbility of finishing ITM (likely 2nd or 3rd).

Calling = 33% probability of finishing ITM (and a much higher probability of finishing 1st or 2nd).

Is my fuzzy math correct? These were/are my thoughts...

[Allinlife]

this is why I stopped playing SNGs.

[stupidsucker]

At first I thought Easy easy call..

then I looked closer and I just dont know.

a problem is that you are the short stack and in a three way you would have to beat both players. UTG can lose this hand and get third if you are in the pot with the BB.

How sure are you that the Big stack will call? Cause that read is fairly important if you ask me.

I don't agree that his push range has to be anything huge. He is UTG. If he feels he has any FE at all he could push with any 2. I put him on at least Ax, but there is no reason to assume he has a monster.

All in all though.... I think this is a fold. If you had UTG out chipped it would be an easy call. Especially if you are sure that BB will come in anyways.

Really tough hand... Sure I say fold here, but in a game I dont see me thinking hard enough about this to fold. I probably insta click call and then curse god for making me so unlucky.

I am curious what others think.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
At first I thought Easy easy call..

then I looked closer and I just dont know.


How sure are you that the Big stack will call? Cause that read is fairly important if you ask me.


Really tough hand... Sure I say fold here, but in a game I dont see me thinking hard enough about this to fold. I probably insta click call and then curse god for making me so unlucky.


[/ QUOTE ]

You only learn from your mistakes. And I did curse.

Regarding my read about BB calling. He is the monster stack. Usually, that's donkish play. Second of all, he knocked out two prior to this by calling a 2 way allin (meaning that two hands were already allin before he called) with 99. The other two hands were AA and JJ, and he flopped quads. So, I think my read here is pretty good.

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding = 50% probbility of finishing ITM (likely 2nd or 3rd).

Calling = 33% probability of finishing ITM (and a much higher probability of finishing 1st or 2nd).

Is my fuzzy math correct? These were/are my thoughts...

[/ QUOTE ]

Not really. This assumes that the three of you have about equal hands, when clearly, hand strength should go, from best to worse, You, button, BB.

[Scuba Chuck]

This is one of the more difficult decisions I've come across. In reflection, I do now think this is a fold. Ugh.

[ferb]

i think you guys are giving utg to much credit for a hand here. his push range has to be just about any two.

[Uppercut]

I think you have to call the all-in bet. UTG could be pushing any 2 (remember, the blinds eat him up on the very next hand). Secondly, if UTG does have a good hand, he is very likely to double up against the BB who will call with any 2. QQ is an awesome starting hand, especially 4 handed. Call and triple up!

[Moonsugar]

[ QUOTE ]

Regarding my read about BB calling. He is the monster stack. Usually, that's donkish play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would you not call with any 2 as the BB in this hand? If I am BB I am calling UTG with any 2 and I am calling if you are in the hand with almost any 2. The odds I am getting are too juicy to pass up.

[jt1]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding = 50% probbility of finishing ITM (likely 2nd or 3rd).

Calling = 33% probability of finishing ITM (and a much higher probability of finishing 1st or 2nd).


[/ QUOTE ]

If you fold you probably do have a 50% chance of ITM, but if you call you have at least a 40% of winning the hand and probably a 10% chance of loosing the hand and finishing 3'rd. And BB may still fold. And of course winning greatly improves your odds of finishing 2'nd or 1'st. This math just verifies my intuition. Considering that BB may possibly fold, and this doesn't seem close to me.