Hand that has been haunting me....

[Scuba Chuck]

This hand happened two nights ago...

Starting stacks are 1000. Bubble situation. From memory.
$55 Bodog game.

BB (Hero) 3800
SB (Villain) 4300
Button 860
UTG 1040

Blinds 200/400

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
Folded to SB who completes. Hero Checks.

Flop: (t800) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif
SB bets 400, BB raises to 800, SB calls

Turn: (t2400) T/images/graemlins/club.gif
SB checks, Hero bets 400, SB very quickly calls

River: (t3200) blank (can't remember card ~ not a /images/graemlins/club.gif, nor did it pair the board)
SB is allin before I can even blink, Hero ??????? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

History: I have had 3 prior instances with SB where it was folded to him, and he just completes. On 2 of those occasions, he lead out, and I folded. The 3rd, he checked, and I bet, and he folded. These were generally all high blind examples.

Edit: Besides the history, my only read on villain is that he is pretty straight forward player.

Before I get anymore, push preflop, push flop advice, I am asking about the river. If your strategy is to push preflop here, I don't think you gain much when you take the blinds, and you lose a ton when bigstack is trapping.

The reason this hand is interesting to me is:
1) I have 2 pair (if I had top pair, I'd have no regrets folding here)
2) His quick turn bet call, and immediate river push.
3) This is an excellent bubble steal opportunity.

[Paulson]

The AI looks like he is scared of the 4th flush card coming up, which can mean any type of hand from TP, all the way to a low flush.

Any reads on this guy? This is a hard call on the bubble. If the villain has shown any bubble expertise, he might be making this play with trash thinking you might be bluffing, although a reraise on the flop would have made more sense if this was the case. Have you bet on the flop and layed down your hand on a big turn raise recently?

[Hendricks433]

I think people play the flush this way alot but it is a $55. Very tough call. I think I go with instincts here.

[lastchance]

This is a terribly played hand, before you get to the river. Yeah, you asked us not to do that, but I don't know what to do in this spot, and I'm never getting into this spot.

Pushing preflop with KTo considering a SB limp is an insanely good idea. You're picking up a nice t800 a lot of the time, and your opponent is very, very rarely trapping here. Considering what happened the previous two times a complete occured, I am definitely picking up t800 by stealing preflop here. You've told him he could complete in the SB without you stealing into him. He's completing crap, and wanting to see a flop. No way I let him to do that.

Second, the flop minraise is weird, to say the least. Still, considering the few draws, I guess I like it.

The turn minbet is just weird. Not pricing anything out, not building up the pot at all. There's just no way he can put you on any made hand after that, and he's already shown weakness.

So, I call the river, very, very quickly if I get there, which I don't.

[Scuba Chuck]

LC, put yourself in SB's shoes. It's folded to you, and you have red Aces. What's your play? IN THIS SITUATION.

[Paulson]

Overlooked the limp. Is this out of character for how he has been playing so far?

[adanthar]

I totally understand the PF check and flop minraise so long as you were folding to a push. Turn bet...nah. Bad. Very very bad, because the hand he has a good chance of having now almost definitely has a million outs. You can bet more and call a push, or just push yourself, or check behind if he reaches into your soul and shows you a flush, but minbetting sucks.

The river, though, is the easiest part of the hand and another math problem. Pretend it's the bubble and the big stack pushes into you preflop. What is the amount of time your hand needs to be good in order for the $EV of a call to outweigh a fold when the short stack has 800 chips?

I did no math but I can tell you off the top of my head the answer is going to be something like 70-80%. The sole difference is that now you have five cards' worth of information to go on. From here, you draw your own conclusions.

[lastchance]

[ QUOTE ]
LC, put yourself in SB's shoes. It's folded to you, and you have red Aces. What's your play? IN THIS SITUATION.

[/ QUOTE ]
Put yourself in SB's shoes. He has 23o. What's your play after he sees you check 3 straight times in the BB, all high blind situations?

It's going to be correct to push here, because he will complete anything, not because he can complete Aces.

No way in hell checking preflop considering the previous checks you've made in the BB are correct.

And I pretty damn sure that your hand is good here.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
LC, put yourself in SB's shoes. It's folded to you, and you have red Aces. What's your play? IN THIS SITUATION.

[/ QUOTE ]
Put yourself in SB's shoes. He has 23o. What's your play after he sees you check 3 straight times in the BB, all high blind situations?

It's going to be correct to push here, because he will complete anything, not because he can complete Aces.

No way in hell checking preflop considering the previous checks you've made in the BB are correct.

And I pretty damn sure that your hand is good here.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're like a politician. Good job avoiding the question.

I lose far more than I gain pushing preflop.

[adanthar]

OK, forget the aces. If you don't think he has them, fine.

If you think he is capable of complete/calling A7o, and many big stacks (especially on Bodog) are far too stupid to do anything but, pushing KTo is so horrifically bad that you can just forward me around 10 bucks of that 55 dollar entry fee right now and save yourself the trouble.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I totally understand the PF check and flop minraise so long as you were folding to a push. Turn bet...nah. Bad. Very very bad, because the hand he has a good chance of having now almost definitely has a million outs. You can bet more and call a push, or just push yourself, or check behind if he reaches into your soul and shows you a flush, but minbetting sucks.


[/ QUOTE ]

Are your comments above, about betting more, and calling a push, a flop consideration, or a turn consideration?

[adanthar]

Turn, of course.

[Paulson]

[ QUOTE ]
Pushing preflop with KTo considering a SB limp is an insanely good idea. You're picking up a nice t800 a lot of the time, and your opponent is very, very rarely trapping here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Completely disagree.

[lastchance]

I think he completes precisely 100% of hands in this spot. I also think he folds 80-90% of this range.

Though, I did make the oversight of thinking that checking is EV = you in the SB folding, where it clearly has some EV.

Still, I can't imagine that pushing would be that bad, considering you get the fold a very large amount of the time.

[Paulson]

[ QUOTE ]
I think he completes precisely 100% of hands in this spot. I also think he folds 80-90% of this range.

Though, I did make the oversight of thinking that checking is EV = you in the SB folding, where it clearly has some EV.

Still, I can't imagine that pushing would be that bad, considering you get the fold a very large amount of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

The thing is you have two ridiculously short stacks. The biggest one has 2.5BBs. You are almost gauranteed 2nd place.

Risking $s for an insignifacnt amt of chips never makes sense.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
OK, forget the aces. If you don't think he has them, fine.

If you think he is capable of complete/calling A7o, and many big stacks (especially on Bodog) are far too stupid to do anything but, pushing KTo is so horrifically bad that you can just forward me around 10 bucks of that 55 dollar entry fee right now and save yourself the trouble.

[/ QUOTE ]

Damn your example is almost dead on. Too bad his hand was Ac7c.

[lastchance]

t800 is never insignifigant, especially when you're picking it up 80+% of the time.

My answer is: It doesn't matter if he completes Aces, because he's completing everything, and he'll fold a lot of that everything.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
t800 is never insignifigant, especially when you're picking it up 80+% of the time.

My answer is: It doesn't matter if he completes Aces, because he's completing everything, and he'll fold a lot of that everything.

[/ QUOTE ]

Run the ICM for what happens when he calls A7o and up. Actually, do one better and run it for what happens when he calls exactly K9o. Holla.

[Paulson]

[ QUOTE ]
t800 is never insignifigant, especially when you're picking it up 80+% of the time.

My answer is: It doesn't matter if he completes Aces, because he's completing everything, and he'll fold a lot of that everything.

[/ QUOTE ]

Compared to the $EV you are losing it is insignificant. The chips gained won't outweigh what you are risking.

[lastchance]

Ok, let's do it:

He calls A7+, KJ+, 44+, and completes any 2.

If Villain folds:
Stack sizes look like:
Hero 4200
SB 3900
Button 860
UTG 1040

Hero has 35% of prize pool.

If Villain calls and wins:
Hero has 0% of prize pool.

If Villain calls and loses:
Hero has 44.7% of prize pool.

Hero gets 35.2% of prize pool 85% of the time, 15% of the time gets called.

.352*.85 + .15(.354*.447) = .323% of prize pool.

Equity before folding (approx of checking) = .339% of prize pool.

Yeah, you're right. Checking is clearly correct.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I did no math but I can tell you off the top of my head the answer is going to be something like 70-80%. The sole difference is that now you have five cards' worth of information to go on. From here, you draw your own conclusions.

[/ QUOTE ]

My conclusion was that this was a very well crafted steal attempt.

I'm thinking there is something to learn here. I have been burned by a few scenarios like this lately, where people make a huge overbet with nut hands.

Anyway, from your comments, I assume you are implying that 70-80% of the time, this is a bluff.

[adanthar]

Nah, I think it's pretty close and almost never a pure bluff. The question is whether what he thinks is the nuts actually is. If he is check/instacalling, he has one high club for sure, so something like Kc (river card, random suit), that he thinks is good but you beat, is at least a possibility. A big part of his holdings are flushes, though.

[tigerite]

In answer to the 70/80% issue - no, I don't think he is ahead that often here. Maybe 50-60% at the most?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I did no math but I can tell you off the top of my head the answer is going to be something like 70-80%. The sole difference is that now you have five cards' worth of information to go on. From here, you draw your own conclusions.

[/ QUOTE ]

My conclusion was that this was a very well crafted steal attempt.

I'm thinking there is something to learn here. I have been burned by a few scenarios like this lately, where people make a huge overbet with nut hands.

Anyway, from your comments, I assume you are implying that 70-80% of the time, this is a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

IMHO you shouldn't give your opponents credit for fancy plays. I dunno if that can actually get you to fold this, but putting your opponent on a really clever bubble bluff is just too specific and unlikely to help you.

[Jman28]

You have a very tough decision, and I think I would call.

However, the point I wanted to make here is that often I find myself in situations like this, and I think to myself "If I were the bigstack, I'd be putting this pressure on him with a HUGE range of hands."

I then decide that the villain is using his big stack as an advantage to push me around, and make a call, only to find out, pretty much every time, their bets were all for value, and they probably don't heavily consider the bubble situations. AND further, they are probably almost as scared of my stack as I am of theirs.

[Jbrochu]

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
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LC, put yourself in SB's shoes. It's folded to you, and you have red Aces. What's your play? IN THIS SITUATION.


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Put yourself in SB's shoes. He has 23o. What's your play after he sees you check 3 straight times in the BB, all high blind situations?

It's going to be correct to push here, because he will complete anything, not because he can complete Aces.

No way in hell checking preflop considering the previous checks you've made in the BB are correct.

And I pretty damn sure that your hand is good here.

[/ QUOTE ]

As another poster noted, the presence of the short stacks may cause me to think twice about the push here. However, very often I push with any 2 cards when the SB limps when the following circumstances are in play:

1) He's limped several times already and I've seen him show down a medium to low strength hand when he does.

2) He generally bets his good hands.

3) He's not folded any hands to me from the SB when it's been folded to him.

4) I've seen that he is capable of laying down a hand.

I rarely get called when I pull this off. When I do get called, it's usually by monsters...

The advantage of this play is far greater than the chips you score on the hand you pull it off. If he limps again in the next round or so, what do you think he's holding...? Also, I often have the next several hands folded to me. If he limps or raises, I can pretty safely assume he holds decent cards.

As an added bonus, others at the table get the message that if you mess with me you better be ready to play for all your chips.

This is the kind of control I want at the table, and if every so often the SB turns up A's and I look like a donk, so be it.

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

I think that you have to fold the river. I think he is trying to make it look like a steal, but that he had the flush on the turn (maybe not the nut flush). I think it cost you too much if you're wrong by calling... but it would not be the 1st time I folded the best hand on a scary board...

Also, your min raise on the flop gave him correct odds to chase (call 400 to win 2000 (5:1) on flop raise) ...nothing wrong with winning 800 by pushing pf, and 1200 by pushing flop, right?

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, your min raise on the flop gave him correct odds to chase (call 400 to win 2000 (5:1) on flop raise) ...nothing wrong with winning 800 by pushing pf, and 1200 by pushing flop, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

While I don't necessarily disagree with your assessment, you can see from the history portion of this post, that I felt he was just betting any flop, to take it down. My bet was to let him know I had a hand. And I should have read from his call, that he too had something.....