The Finishes Graph

Ideally, where should the "bell curve" be peaking on the finishes graph? I have a clear 3rd/4th place peak developing with it trailing off in either direction. Given my relatively low ROI compared to a relatively high ITM, I'm wondering if there is a deduction to be made (e.g., my bubble play sucks and needs improvement or I'm not taking enough (any) opportunities before Level 4 to increase my stack).

Any input?

[fisherman112]

what are your stats? you might just think that your ITM is too high relative to your ROI.

clearly you're going to have a lot of 3rd and 4th place finishes. ideally you want to be making more 1sts and 3rds than 2nds, that's really it.
if you have a lot of 2nd places compared with 1sts, then that's a sign your bubble play isnt aggressive enough.

[ QUOTE ]
what are your stats? you might just think that your ITM is too high relative to your ROI.

clearly you're going to have a lot of 3rd and 4th place finishes. ideally you want to be making more 1sts and 3rds than 2nds, that's really it.
if you have a lot of 2nd places compared with 1sts, then that's a sign your bubble play isnt aggressive enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I didn't want to post my stats because "nobody cares" and clearly I don't have enough to make much of a deduction about anything.

What I'm trying to understand is where they should be going as I get more SNGs under my belt. I have 123 in with a 40% ITM and a 7% ROI. I think I'm playing pretty fundamentally sound but am reviewing more closely my hand histories tonight and tomorrow. My ROI was in the 15-20% range until a bad day today. After putting in about 60 SNGs this weekend I'm trying to figure out where I am at.

My finishes:

1st 8%
2nd 14%
3rd 18%
4th 19%
5th 13%
6th 10%
7th 9%
8th 5%
9th 3%
10th 1%

If anything obvious jumps out, I'd be grateful for any input. Otherwise, sorry for wasting everyone's time with these stats without sufficient SNGs under my belt.

[mlagoo]

Well, first off, 125 really is a small sample size =/

Regardless, I'm not sure what an ideal curve looks like. Mine goes like this:

1st: 14%
2nd: 13.5%
3rd: 10.5%
4th: 10%
5th: 12%
6th: 11%
7th: 13%
8th: 6%
9th: 6%
10th: 4%

I don't think this is ideal though. I think the ideal curve would include mostly 1sts and 2nds, few 3rds, lots of 4ths-6ths, and few 7ths-10ths.

[YourFoxyGrandma]

Well, I guess this had to come from somebody...

You really can't tell anything from the number of tournaments you've played. It's really impossible. I'll give you an example from my own stats.

After 100 $55s

ROI: 9.4%
ITM: 30%
3rd place: 20%

50 tournaments later...

ROI: 22.6%
ITM: 42.6%
3rd place: 16%

Your stats are going to be all over the place for at least 1000 tournaments. You can probably start to analyze stuff like finish distribution after 500 or so.

A funny aside...

Out of my 123 SNGs, my only 10th place finish was when I got all-in on the first hand with two other guys. I had AA, villian has A3s, and the other guy had JJ. It's just amazing that folks are willing to get all their chips in on the first hand with those hands. Of course, the A3s donk sucked out a flush and I was gone. /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I guess this had to come from somebody...

You really can't tell anything from the number of tournaments you've played. It's really impossible. I'll give you an example from my own stats.

After 100 $55s

ROI: 9.4%
ITM: 30%
3rd place: 20%

50 tournaments later...

ROI: 22.6%
ITM: 42.6%
3rd place: 16%

Your stats are going to be all over the place for at least 1000 tournaments. You can probably start to analyze stuff like finish distribution after 500 or so.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I guess I should have more generally tailored my question and refused to even talk about my own stats.

My question is simple. What does a finish distribution look like for a great player?

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I guess this had to come from somebody...

You really can't tell anything from the number of tournaments you've played. It's really impossible. I'll give you an example from my own stats.

After 100 $55s

ROI: 9.4%
ITM: 30%
3rd place: 20%

50 tournaments later...

ROI: 22.6%
ITM: 42.6%
3rd place: 16%

Your stats are going to be all over the place for at least 1000 tournaments. You can probably start to analyze stuff like finish distribution after 500 or so.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a pretty perfect example about sample size.


And yeah, I've always mixed it up a bit too much in the first couple of rounds. The way I look at it, there are too many bad players who are just driving to give their chips away in levels 1 and 2.. I don't want to disappoint them =P

I don't know whether it's optimal or not. Reading posts from players like Citanul and raptor tend to make me think it likely is not. But then, there probably aren't as many donks in the first couple levels of a 215.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]

My question is simple. What does a finish distribution look like for a great player?

[/ QUOTE ]

The ones I've seen have tended to be monotonically decreasing, or generally monotonic with the exception of more 3rds than 2nds.

eastbay

Post deleted by uclabruinz

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

My question is simple. What does a finish distribution look like for a great player?

[/ QUOTE ]

The ones I've seen have tended to be monotonically decreasing, or generally monotonic with the exception of more 3rds than 2nds.

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm, that would seem to imply great players are getting relatively involved early on.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see how you can draw that conclusion.

eastbay

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see how you can draw that conclusion.

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

Me neither, which is why I deleted it right before your post.

Wow, just experienced how meaningless a small sample size really is.

Yesterday I posted that my stats after 123 tourneys were 40% ITM and 7% ROI.

Tonight my total tourneys are up to 142 and my stats are now 43% ITM and 21% ROI.

And here just last night I was pouring over my hand histories and sweating statistics. LOL

[ QUOTE ]
And here just last night I was pouring over my hand histories and sweating statistics. LOL

[/ QUOTE ]Maybe it helped. Seriously.

While I agree that 150 SNGs is not enough to draw any firm conclusions, it seems to me that, especially for a new player whose game is likely erratic, it is more than enough to suggest areas for study. It might be that you look at a certain area of play and simply determine that you've been unlucky (or lucky), but you might also find something that will improve your play.

Sometimes bad runs (or good runs), are because of bad play (or good play). Dismissing any run as due to luck strikes me as unproductive for someone who is trying to improve their game.

Anyway, I think your question about what a finishes graph for a very good player ought to look like is a good one. And, using the comparison between that chart and your actual chart might well be beneficial for you. As long as you don't draw conclusion solely fromthe comparison, but use the comparison to direct your hand examination.

[petvan]

Since we're posting away, here is mine over the last 300 or so.

1 14.86%
2 11.49%
3 9.80%
4 12.16%
5 15.54%
6 7.77%
7 8.45%
8 8.78%
9 7.09%
10 4.05%

I'm about 37% ITM, 16.7 ROI. I expect I fall into the category of possibly too aggressive in the bubble. I tend to push a pretty open range if I'm short, or large once I get to lvl 4-5. Playing 30+3's here.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And here just last night I was pouring over my hand histories and sweating statistics. LOL

[/ QUOTE ]Maybe it helped. Seriously.

While I agree that 150 SNGs is not enough to draw any firm conclusions, it seems to me that, especially for a new player whose game is likely erratic, it is more than enough to suggest areas for study. It might be that you look at a certain area of play and simply determine that you've been unlucky (or lucky), but you might also find something that will improve your play.

Sometimes bad runs (or good runs), are because of bad play (or good play). Dismissing any run as due to luck strikes me as unproductive for someone who is trying to improve their game.

Anyway, I think your question about what a finishes graph for a very good player ought to look like is a good one. And, using the comparison between that chart and your actual chart might well be beneficial for you. As long as you don't draw conclusion solely fromthe comparison, but use the comparison to direct your hand examination.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, I agree. I don't know if it's what helped, but you can never go wrong examining your own hand histories and looking for leaks or missed opportunities.

I think the bottom line is that I just had a very lucky day yesterday, and had some periods of bad luck prior to that. I had an 89% ROI yesterday. Looking forward to more days like that. /images/graemlins/cool.gif