Bubble hand, 99

[djj6835]

What do you do here with the uber short-stack.

#Game No : 2576416568
***** Hand History for Game 2576416568 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:15053616 Level:9 Blinds(250/500) - Monday, August 22, 00:43:56 EDT 2005
Table Table 14917 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 6: Hero ( $1870 )
Seat 5: UTG ( $30 )
Seat 7: SB ( $3220 )
Seat 9: BB ( $2880 )
Trny:15053616 Level:9
Blinds(250/500)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 9d 9h ]
UTG folds.
Hero ???

[HighestCard]

Grit your teeth and push. Blinds are too huge to dictate any other move, epically with the BB comming up. If you win your in a great position to get 2nd. If you lose, make another post on here about bad beats... /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[mlagoo]

A push here is another +EV, -cash EV situation. This is a definite fold for me everytime.

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]
Grit your teeth and push. Blinds are too huge to dictate any other move, epically with the BB comming up. If you win your in a great position to get 2nd. If you lose, make another post on here about bad beats... /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

This is just wrong. A push is wrong and it is impossible to argue otherwise. Fold.

[HighestCard]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a definite fold for me everytime.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont think its that easy... Like I said in my first post the blinds are going to kill your stack when they come around.
[ QUOTE ]
A push here is another +EV, -cash EV situation.

[/ QUOTE ]
I dont think this is a clear -$EV situation, but go get somebody like eastbay to flame me on this.

[HighestCard]

[ QUOTE ]
This is just wrong. A push is wrong and it is impossible to argue otherwise. Fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Somebody correct my thinking here because I cant see why this is such an easy fold. /images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[djj6835]

[ QUOTE ]
dont think its that easy... Like I said in my first post the blinds are going to kill your stack when they come around.

Quote:

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah but the blinds are gonna kill the guy with 30 chips a whole lot more, and sooner. I folded but I'm not sure if this is being too weak tight here or not.

I was expecting to get a lot of "play for first" comments but I thought this was one of those secenarios where you have to make the final three first before you can win.

[Morbo]

These situations are my bread and butter, I push with any two. Why would anyone else want to call?

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
dont think its that easy... Like I said in my first post the blinds are going to kill your stack when they come around.

Quote:

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah but the blinds are gonna kill the guy with 30 chips a whole lot more, and sooner. I folded but I'm not sure if this is being too weak tight here or not.

I was expecting to get a lot of "play for first" comments but I thought this was one of those secenarios where you have to make the final three first before you can win.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not really a matter of that -- it's just.. You are basically a lock (I would venture a guess of 95% or better) to get third or better. The big stacks are also a lock to get third or better, EVEN IF THEY CALL YOU.

I think that's the important thing. Neither of the stacks in the blinds are risking going out on the bubble by calling you here. They can call knowing that even if they lose, they are still almost certain to make the money.

If the short stack wasn't AS SHORT, it would be closer, but I can't imagine putting my chips at risk here. Playing for first is one thing -- playing for fourth is another.

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
These situations are my bread and butter, I push with any two. Why would anyone else want to call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because even if they call and lose, they are almost certainly ITM regardless?

[Morbo]

Yea, I see I didn't pay too much attention to the hand history. If you are chipleader or just about even, I push with any two. Now, I fold aswell.

[jdl22]

[ QUOTE ]
These situations are my bread and butter, I push with any two. Why would anyone else want to call?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I have more chips than the guys behind me I push any two as well, but not if they have about twice my chips. I would fold here.

[HighestCard]

[ QUOTE ]
I was expecting to get a lot of "play for first" comments but I thought this was one of those secenarios where you have to make the final three first before you can win.

[/ QUOTE ]

I get your point but...
This is an easy fold if the shortie is getting in the blind before me. There is no gaurentee that he is going to be knocked out (I know, rare). If somebody min-raises your BB, you are pot committed with any two face cards or pockets. I see it as push then, or push now with an actual hand. If you do double up, the sb is most likely going to be folded to you with the guy fearing being knocked out himself. I say the reward outweighs the risk here.

Please flame, preferably with math calculations..

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]
These situations are my bread and butter, I push with any two. Why would anyone else want to call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Joking, not joking?... We may never know. Hopefully joking.

[Morbo]

See my last post. I didn't pay attention to the fact that the other two guys have him covered by far. It's a fold.

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is just wrong. A push is wrong and it is impossible to argue otherwise. Fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Somebody correct my thinking here because I cant see why this is such an easy fold. /images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

You are virtually guaranteed to make the money. If you went on post and fold you would make the money something like 99.5% of the time... or something. When you push and lose you don't make the money. When you push and win you have not gained nearly enough $EV to warrant pushing. Risk does not equal reward and it's not even remotely close.

[djj6835]

Most people say fold and I agree with that. Now a couple more questions.

1. With the exact same stack sizes, how strong of hand would you need to push in the exact same spot?

2. How big can the UTG short stack get before you would push 99 here?

[HighestCard]

[ QUOTE ]
You are virtually guaranteed to make the money. If you went on post and fold you would make the money something like 99.5% of the time... or something. When you push and lose you don't make the money. When you push and win you have not gained nearly enough $EV to warrant pushing. Risk does not equal reward and it's not even remotely close.


[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously your gaurenteed 3rd if you fold here, but I wish I could do ICM calculations to figure out if you double up your chances of winning 1st, and see if they outweigh folding here. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
Most people say fold and I agree with that. Now a couple more questions.

1. With the exact same stack sizes, how strong of hand would you need to push in the exact same spot?

2. How big can the UTG short stack get before you would push 99 here?

[/ QUOTE ]

1: I would tend to think QQ or better (AK not included). I could see an argument made for KK or better. I don't think it's right to fold KK here.

2: This is an interesting question. I want to say something like the size of the BB? Maybe 500 or so? But that is completely unsupported by any math =) So take it for what it's worth.

I am unsure even what sort of calculation you would need to run here.

[Morbo]

Guesstimate:

1: QQ
2: about 500

[Morbo]

lol see my post, nh

[YourFoxyGrandma]

ICM says push, even with pretty loose calling standards for the SB and BB and it's because of the overwhelming blind sizes. Pushing becomes marginal at 200/400 and clearly wrong at 150/300 and below. I think pushing is pretty safe here; I can't see the SB and BB calling with very many hands.