Chasing my set (implied odds question)

[SlantNGo]

This flop call was automatic for me getting 18:1 and with no possibility of a raise behind me. How low would you go here? I thought 16:1 was marginal but given that this is a loose-passive table (mid 30s VPIP, 7 BB avg. pot), is 14:1 even a possibility here?

BTW MP2 just sat down, and with no read on him, I couldn't count on him to bet that turn, so I bet it.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (14 SB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Button calls, SB calls, BB folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (9.50 BB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls, Button calls, SB calls, UTG+1 folds.

River: (13.50 BB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP2 calls, Button calls.

Final Pot: 22.50 BB

[istewart]

I think the turn gets checked through quite a bit here and you don't want to give JT or T9 free cards. Nice hand.

At 14:1 I would probably fold. Above that and it gets trickier.

[GTSamIAm]

You're not going to get paid off big time by any hands on this flop except a random two pair. Unless everyone calls nearly all the time, this is an easy fold. Marginal implied odds require specific reads. You have to put them on hands, and then estimate how they'll play their hands to pay you off.

[Harv72b]

Nice hand, sir.

[ QUOTE ]
How low would you go here?

[/ QUOTE ]

You need 23.5:1 to call the flop bet with a 2-outer, and with no backdoors available, that's all you have. So it's a question of how many bets you can anticipate making up on the big streets when you turn your 4.

Typical loose/passive 1/2 table, you can anticipate just about everyone sticking around for the river with a gutshot, pair, or just a plain old ace. With 5 players in the pot, I'm therefore anticipating making somewhere in the vicinity of 7 BBs when I hit my 4. Reduce that a bit for the times when you're up against an overset or someone's gutshot hits on the river, and I think that 10 SBs is achievable in this example.

So, yeah....about 14:1 would work on the flop.

[hemstock]

If I am correct. You are getting 18 to 1. You need 4 more small bets which is 2 big bets. So definetly is a call. Even with just 14 to 1 I think with implied odds you can still call.

[SlantNGo]

[ QUOTE ]
You need 23.5:1 to call the flop bet with a 2-outer

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought it was 22:1?

[Dave G.]

It's 22.5:1. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
It's 22.5:1. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

47 unknown cards, only 2 help Hero. That's 23.5:1.

It's about 22.5:1 if Hero will definitely see both the turn and river without putting in more money (i.e., he or his opponent(s) are all-in with the flop bet).

Since Hero will be folding to a turn bet 100% of the time when he does not hit a 4, 23.5:1 is the better number to use here.

[Eeegah]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's 22.5:1. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

47 unknown cards, only 2 help Hero. That's 23.5:1.

It's about 22.5:1 if Hero will definitely see both the turn and river without putting in more money (i.e., he or his opponent(s) are all-in with the flop bet).

Since Hero will be folding to a turn bet 100% of the time when he does not hit a 4, 23.5:1 is the better number to use here.

[/ QUOTE ]

A bit better than that if we're all in, since we'd be seeing two cards. Our percentage for hitting a 4 in that case would be

1-(1-2/47)(1-2/46) = 8.4%,

which would be a 1 in 11.8 or so.

But to answer the OP's question, sure I could see us getting paid off if we hit our set and closing the action, especially if we plan on filling up on the river /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[SCfuji]

this turn isnt getting checked through unless you know mp2 is really really passive. perfect spot for a check raise.

[DeezNutz3]

[ QUOTE ]
this turn isnt getting checked through unless you know mp2 is really really passive. perfect spot for a check raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

[grjr]

[ QUOTE ]
this turn isnt getting checked through unless you know mp2 is really really passive. perfect spot for a check raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, right or wrong, I definately wouldn't have thought of betting out on the turn. It's just set up too perfect for the c/r.

[Watain]

On this unscary board then you are pretty much on a freeroll if you hit the 4 on the turn. I guess at least 4 big bets extra in this hand from you opponents would be the average, so i would even consider going as low as 1:14. But that would also be dependent on the opponents.

[deception5]

Closing the action on the flop you have to call this.

I would have check/raised the turn without hesitation here. Sometimes it gets through but a bet could easily be raised by MP2 here blowing away the field and losing a lot of potential profit. And there's a good chance he'll bet again (he bet into the preflop raiser on the flop after all). The payoff if he does is huge.

[gharp]

[ QUOTE ]
47 unknown cards, only 2 help Hero. That's 23.5:1.

[/ QUOTE ]
Not to be a super-nit about all this, but by that math a flush draw would be:

47/9 = 5.2 -&gt; 5.2:1

...which I think we all know is wrong (it's about 4:1). The thing you're forgetting to do is drop one from the larger number to convert it into the odds format. So the actual number is 22.5:1 (Flop-&gt;Turn).

[bozlax]

First, cut off your hand history where you have a question. I'm not going to look at the turn action in responding (although I noticed you made your set), and I'm grunching (I usually do, but odds calcs are tough for me, sometimes, so this time I'm specifying it).

On the flop you're getting 18:1, safe, drawing to a 2-outer (you have no backdoor draws). You can't continue just to see the turn (2/47 = 22:1, about). If you count going all the way to the river, let's assume that the betting pattern will be the same, and let's say you'll lose one more opponent; so, when it gets to you the pot'll be 12.5 BB, so you'll be spending 1.5 bets to win 12, or 8:1, and your pot odds are 2/47 + 2/46 = ~10:1. Am I right so far?

If you hit your set on the turn, I think you can probably make up the deficit with a well-hidden strong hand. If you don't hit it until the river, I'm not so sure. And, if you don't hit it on the turn and button is slow-playing AA/KK/QQ planning to raise the turn, or you lose too many opponents, then your odds go faaar into the toilet.

So, depending on a read on Button/MP2 and how tricky and aggro they are, and how passive the rest of the field is, I call this on the flop, but that's the last money I'll put in the pot without seeing a 4. You can surely make up 4SB if you hit on the turn, but you're almost certainly not going to have enough to play to the river.

Now to go see what everybody else said.

[SlantNGo]

[ QUOTE ]
I would have check/raised the turn without hesitation here. Sometimes it gets through but a bet could easily be raised by MP2 here blowing away the field and losing a lot of potential profit. And there's a good chance he'll bet again (he bet into the preflop raiser on the flop after all). The payoff if he does is huge.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I have a read on MP2 as likely to bet again, or if we were both in EP, then I would go for the C/R. But a late position bettor on a harmless board... I think it gets checked through here a lot. Here's a hand from 5/10 B&amp;M Saturday night where I decided to C/R.

Hero is dealt KK UTG.
Hero raises, folded to Niners Jersey (MP) who calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Qxx rainbow flop. Hero bets, Niners Jersey raises, SB calls, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn pairs the board and improves Hero to a boat. Hero checks, Niners Jersey bets, SB calls, Hero raises, both call.

River blank, Hero bets, Niners Jersey calls, SB folds.

MHIG, Niners Jersey mucked.

I had been sitting with Niners Jersey for 3 hours, and never once did he check after betting or raising the previous round (even when 4 to a straight or flush came up). Hence I decided to trap on the turn rather than 3-betting the flop.

[magates]

[ QUOTE ]
47 unknown cards, only 2 help Hero. That's 23.5:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

47 cards, 2 outs = 45/2 = 22.5:1

[detruncate]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
47 unknown cards, only 2 help Hero. That's 23.5:1.

[/ QUOTE ]
Not to be a super-nit about all this, but by that math a flush draw would be:

47/9 = 5.2 -&gt; 5.2:1

...which I think we all know is wrong (it's about 4:1). The thing you're forgetting to do is drop one from the larger number to convert it into the odds format. So the actual number is 22.5:1 (Flop-&gt;Turn).

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sure it doesn't much matter to harv, but it's important that this doesn't get confusing for people newer to the game.

You're right. It's 22.5:1.

Another way of looking at it:

Out of 47 unseen cards, there are 45 that won't help you and 2 that will. That's 45:2, or 22.5:1.

Out of the 46 unseen cards on the turn, 44 cards won't help and 2 will, so 44:2 = 22:1.

Similarly, the ratio of bad to good cards with a flush draw (assuming your flush outs are all you have) is 38:9 on the flop (~4.22:1), and 37:9 on the turn (~4.11:1).

[krimson]

[ QUOTE ]
47 unknown cards, only 2 help Hero. That's 23.5:1.


[/ QUOTE ]

47 unknowns, 2 help, this would make the odds 2:45, not 2:47.

Think of a coinflip, a coinflip has odds of 1:1, not 1:2.

OP: I think this is an easy flop call. Getting 18:1 and closing the action. You will easily be able to make up a couple BB's on the turn/river with 5 players going to the turn in a big pot.

[magates]

[ QUOTE ]

On the flop you're getting 18:1, safe, drawing to a 2-outer (you have no backdoor draws). You can't continue just to see the turn (2/47 = 22:1, about). If you count going all the way to the river, let's assume that the betting pattern will be the same, and let's say you'll lose one more opponent; so, when it gets to you the pot'll be 12.5 BB, so you'll be spending 1.5 bets to win 12, or 8:1, and your pot odds are 2/47 + 2/46 = ~10:1. Am I right so far?

[/ QUOTE ]

From the flop to the river it's (1/1-(45/47)(44/46))-1 = 10.9:1

[Eeegah]

I think I've been misreading ratio notation all this time; I've always thought it to be equivalent to a fraction, as in (outs):(possibilities), but I guess it's actually different. Anyone know how this difference evolved?

Moreover, if a coinflip is 1:1, then what's something that's guaranteed to win, 1:0?

To be honest, I really don't like ratio notation anyway, as it's confusing to convert it to and from a figure that you can actually do math with, like fractions or percentages. I think I need to start a campaign or write my Representative or something.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
From the flop to the river it's (1/1-(45/47)(44/46))-1 = 10.9:1

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right, it's closer to 11:1. Your intended formula and mine are just different ways of arriving at the same number. That said, I used the word "intended" because (1/1-x)-1=-x. You need a few more parentheses.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero is dealt KK UTG.
Hero raises, folded to Niners Jersey (MP) who calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Qxx rainbow flop. Hero bets, Niners Jersey raises, SB calls, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn pairs the board and improves Hero to a boat.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's one magical turn card.

[Harv72b]

Did I mention that I suck at math? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Either way, I like the flop call &amp; would like it all the way down to 14:1.

[magates]

[ QUOTE ]
You're right, it's closer to 11:1. Your intended formula and mine are just different ways of arriving at the same number. That said, I used the word "intended" because (1/1-x)-1=-x. You need a few more parentheses.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oops. Yeah, I should be more careful. That said, your formula for calculating the odds of making a draw with two cards to come is wrong and won't arrive at the same number. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[SlantNGo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hero is dealt KK UTG.
Hero raises, folded to Niners Jersey (MP) who calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Qxx rainbow flop. Hero bets, Niners Jersey raises, SB calls, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn pairs the board and improves Hero to a boat.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's one magical turn card.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whoops! KQx flop.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm sure it doesn't much matter to harv, but it's important that this doesn't get confusing for people newer to the game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good looking out for us. Great basic explanation on odds--I'm getting to that part in TOP now.