PDA

View Full Version : T9o on the button vs "TAG", value bet river?

08-22-2005, 12:39 AM
Who bets this river? Opponent is PAIN_MAKER, but I don't think he respects me much, may be thinks I suck, which I do. I have ~250 hands on him, so he probably sees my stats around the 25-30/20/1-2 mark. BTW, he is like 22/18/2.77.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (6.40 SB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls.

Turn: (5.20 BB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, Hero calls.

River: (9.20 BB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks
bank
08-22-2005, 12:46 AM
I check. Would hate to get raised here. Tough one though.
nervous
08-22-2005, 01:00 AM
I think he either has a king or he has absolutely nothing. For this reason, I check behind.
08-22-2005, 01:05 AM
Don't you think most "nothings" are betting out on the river, if he already decided to invest 2 BB on the turn to try and win it? This looks like he wants to see a showdown and not be blown off his hand to a river raise, or to induce a bluff.
admiralfluff
08-22-2005, 01:53 AM
I think he has a K very rarely. Unless he thinks you're a huge LAG, he knows that there are a lot of hands you will gladly showdown for free if given the chance after the turn c/r. Unless he had reason to believe the T significantly improved your hand, which he really doesn't, he probably won't expect you to bet this river more than 50% of the time. His stats don't seem like an exceptionally tricky player, and without reads to indicate otherwise, I would assume he probably is not.

I think his most likely holdings are a pocket pair smaller than 9s. HE will occasionally have Js, Qs, or As, but will probably value bet them here most of the time. Every once in a while he will have AQ or AJ, and might call with them. I would bet and expect him to fold often, or call with 88,77,66, or maybe A9..
Jgents
08-22-2005, 01:56 AM
This is an excellent analysis.
nervous
08-22-2005, 02:08 AM
I change my opinion to this. It's sorta what I was getting after, except I didn't think it all the way through with him calling hands that you beat.
deepsquat
08-23-2005, 11:11 PM
i think A high calls here, although im not sure whther that warrants a bet as the 10 is prob irrelevant here.
baronzeus
08-23-2005, 11:26 PM
from my experence PAIN_MAKER is capable of check-raising this river.
08-23-2005, 11:31 PM
Thats the only reason I checked. FYI, he had AJs.
baronzeus
08-23-2005, 11:32 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Thats the only reason I checked. FYI, he had AJs.

[/ QUOTE ]


I wasn't suggesting checking /images/graemlins/smile.gif
bank
08-23-2005, 11:33 PM
So you lost 1BB at the most. Now what would have happened if you bet for value and he c/r'ed you off the best hand...i would cry.
08-23-2005, 11:34 PM
I didn't say my thought process was correct at the time, heh. But ya, I think betting is the right move.
deepsquat
08-23-2005, 11:41 PM
betting vs this villain could only be the right move if u plan to call a c/r. If he is capable of raising A high and you are capable of folding to a river c/r then u should check.