7 pocket rockets, 1 game

[hansdebelge]

last night i got AA on 3 out of 4 consecutive hands, then twice in a row again two hands later. 5/7 hands AA. then two more times over the course of the night. crazy right? anyone know the odds?

[hukilai]

A chance to get AA is p = 4/52 * 3/51
To get it 5 times out of 7 is P = p^5 * (1-p)^(7-5) * C(7,5) = 1 in 17,059,632,174 times

[Guernica4000]

I would say the odds that 1) someone is cheating or 2) someone doesn't know how to shuffle are about 50% the other 50% is that your post is BS.

IMO

did you make some money that night?

i believe it, i get 9 2 off all night

[mudbuddha]

alot more combinations to make 92 than to make AA

[LetYouDown]

Whether it happened or not is irrelevant. There's a mathematical proof that dictates you cannot be a winning player if you use the phrase "pocket rockets".

[AaronBrown]

hukilai's formula is correct, but I get 1 in 25,332,687,130 instead of 17 billion.

However, I would look at it differently. There were two unusual events. First is that you got 7 AA in one night. If that's 200 hands, it will happen 1 night in 27,052. The second thing is the hands were bunched, 3 out of 4, 2 out of 2 and 2 others. That kind of bunching will happen 1 time in 311,199.

Multiplying both of those together, you get 1 in 8,418,581,334, or about three times as likely as just getting 5 out of 7 hands AA.

Of course, every night of Poker will produce some unusual occurrences. Generally, you can come up with something that happened that has some pattern (not just, I got J/images/graemlins/heart.gif 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif on the first hand), with a prior probability of around 1 in 100 million or so. So my guess is if you play Poker twice a week, something about as memorable and unlikely as what happened to you will happen once a year.

[Guernica4000]

"Whether it happened or not is irrelevant"
Agreed.

My point is that you need to take into account the following factors in the matematical calculation.
1) someone is cheating
2) someone doesn't know how to shuffle
3) the post is BS.

Now had the OP siad: What are the odds of getting AA 5 out of 7 hands? The above factors wouldn't be relevant.


" There's a mathematical proof that dictates you cannot be a winning player if you use the phrase "pocket rockets"".

By the way I din't use phrase "pocket rockets" was that at the OP?

[LetYouDown]

Refer to subject. It's quite possibly the most irritating phrase I can imagine. The thought of saying it and/or typing it makes my skin crawl.

[spaminator101]

only 16:12

[hansdebelge]

No jokes or BS. we rotate deal and every hand is shuffled and cut. the players are very picky about it, especially after the first two AAs.

[hansdebelge]

i guess i prooved the proof to be incorrect. and theres nothing mathmatical about it.

[AaronBrown]

And you don't use a pinochle deck?

[hansdebelge]

nope. standard bee 52 card deck

bee deck? yuck