$11R Hand for discussion

[TxDozerMan]

Soon after first break. To set this up this is the 3rd hand in a row villain has raised, he won once without showdown, mucked loser on the other.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

Button (t3240)
SB (t15175)
BB (t7990)
<font color="#C00000">UTG (t14490)</font>
UTG+1 (t17030)
MP1 (t4775)
MP2 (t4775)
<font color="#C00000">Hero (t10525)</font>
CO (t6475)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t600</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero ??

[TxDozerMan]

Ok nothing interesing there? what about after a call and this flop:

Flop: (t1425) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets t1200</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ??.

[Chief911]

I think you can pick a better spot here. I saw the hand, so I'm biased, but we talked about it briefly as well.

Let me ask you this. What hand do you have to hit on the flop for you to be willing to go to war with an UTG 4xBB raiser?

After the flop, you have tons of outs. But I play with caution.

Nick

[betgo]

Fold preflop unless the raiser is very loose. The big suited connector is a good hand to call a raise with, but you are probably behind.

Push on the flop. It looks like a flush draw, but so be it. Villain probably did not connect with this flop. You have a 55% chance against JJ and a 38% chance against AA. About the worst case is 18% against AsXs. If villain just has overcards, he will have to fold.

[Chief911]

Betgo,

So you would risk your entire stack (you have 9kish) for 2500? I dont understand that. Especially when he is giving you decent odds to call and see the turn.

I'd call the flop bet, and play the turn with position. Its way too early to be ready to go broke with a 2nd to nut flush draw vs. utg raiser.

Nick

[TxDozerMan]

I agree, in hindsight, I think this is a pre-flop fold. Any hand that fits well enough to go to war with, will probably not get action, unless I am beat.

p.s. Congrats on yet another strong performance, how long until your title is changed to "Rebuy Master"?

[TxDozerMan]

I didn't like a call because the bet was 1200 into a 1425 pot. I thought a call would scream flush draw and therfore kill my action if I hit.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
Betgo,

So you would risk your entire stack (you have 9kish) for 2500? I dont understand that. Especially when he is giving you decent odds to call and see the turn.

I'd call the flop bet, and play the turn with position. Its way too early to be ready to go broke with a 2nd to nut flush draw vs. utg raiser.

Nick

[/ QUOTE ]

You are probably ahead now. The only reasonable hands you are significantly behind are AA, KK, AsXs, 22, 33, and 55. you need to push to exploit your advantage. You will probably either pick up the pot or have a coin flop. Yeah, you could get busted out, but you could also double up. This is very favorable for you.

The almost pot-sized bet does not give you great odds to call for the flush. If you call and miss, you may be betted off the hand on the turn.

Pushing is much more favorable.

I would probably fold preflop, but I don't think calling preflop as terrible with KQs, which can connect with a lot of flops.

[TxDozerMan]

These were my thoughts as well, and the last thing I wanted to see was a Q or a K and face a pot sized bet on the turn, not knowing if I let him connect with his AQ/AK. I wanted overcards to be gone, and draw against a pair, hopefully JJ or lower.

[Chief911]

I think you guys are missing something that is very important at this point in the rebuy:

There are still ALOT of donks left who will shove chips your way in much more favorable situations. Why risk all your chips for a small pot where you have two overcards (That very well might not be good) and a flush draw.

I really think folding preflop here is much better.

Now, something like 56 of spades I might call here looking to bust a big stack. =)

Nick

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]

I think you guys are missing something that is very important at this point in the rebuy:

There are still ALOT of donks left who will shove chips your way in much more favorable situations. Why risk all your chips for a small pot where you have two overcards (That very well might not be good) and a flush draw.

I really think folding preflop here is much better.

Now, something like 56 of spades I might call here looking to bust a big stack. =)

Nick

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see the point of avoiding favorable gambles. Maybe in a supersatellite this would be reasonable, but here you need lots of chips to make the final table.

If you think villain and other players at the table will give you chips, then that is an argument for calling preflop with a speculative hand. Villain may pay off big if you make a straight or something.

I think KQs is better here than 65s, although there are some advantages to the low cards. I wouldn't call here with either hand. However, KQs likely to be about even with what villain has, unless villain has a big hand that dominates it. Plus you have the advantages of position and having a suited connector that could make a big hand.

[TxDozerMan]

At the time I pushed because I didn't want to play a bad turn card, but I think a pf fold is the answer to stay out of this trouble. I expected a fold 65% of the time and to win close to 45% of the calls so I think the push is +EV, but Chief is right, at this point people are still doing everything they can to give you their stack.

Change my stack to something around 5-6k and I will push this without hesitation on this flop. With 10k left I think a call on the flop is not too bad, although I am not fond of pot sized calls, and wonder what any card that hits me will do to the action.

Chief, in this same spot are you pushing with 56s if you hit a pr + flush draw, or are you still taking one off?

[Chief911]

If the pot gives me 2:1 like yours did, I'd peel another one off, and see what happens on the turn. Lots of people can pot a flop. Not many will pot or bet hard on the turn unless they have a solid hand. I get all the info I need after the card and the bet or lack thereof.

Nick