Schooled by a fish

[schlach]

This is a two-part question, with surprises and spoilers at the bottom.

Game is 8-player $2/4 at Absolute
Hero is MP with J/images/graemlins/heart.gifJ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Villain is 48%/11% in UTG+1 and has been throwing a party for the table since he sat down. Stats over 80 hands.
Button is 20%/11% over 34 hands.

UTG folds, UTG+1 limps, fold, Hero raises, fold, button calls, blinds fold. UTG+1 reraises, Hero caps, button calls 2 more.

Flop is 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif5/images/graemlins/club.gifK/images/graemlins/spade.gif

Villain checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn is 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Villain bets, Hero calls, Button folds.

River is 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif

Villain bets, Hero calls.

Question one is examining this play as it was. Question two is a little bit more interesting, I think, below.



I put the villain on AA, possibly KK, but in 3500 hands and maybe 10-15 instances I have always seen AA turned over when UTG limped and reraised. I checked the flop behind him because I saw that as an obvious check-raise. Imagine my embarrassment when he took down the pot with 65s, and I realized I had just gotten totally outplayed by the table's fish.

So here's the question: I very likely would have gotten check-raised anyway, had I bet the flop, by the villain with middle-pair and a four-flush. If I had known the villain could limp-reraise with hands as bad as 65s (let's say one- or no-gap suited connectors to 65s, any pair, any unsuited broadway, basically Sklansky Groups 1-5), would it be correct to reraise a check-raise on the flop, assuming the button called my flop bet?

A friend and I discussed this a bit. My thinking is below.



He thinks a call would be a better play, but I disagree. Changing the range of villain's hands dramatically improves my chances of having the best hand on the flop, and if the button doesn't raise my flop bet, two more bets is probably necessary to get him out of the pot, which would protect my hand much better than just calling. I think the pot is big enough where this becomes a good play. If the button calls two more bets, I'd know I was way behind, and let go of the hand. If he folded, I'd probably check behind or call the villain on the turn and river. Even if the A and Q of spades fell on the turn and river, I'm still ahead of the villain one in four times. With the button in the hand (I gave him Groups 3-4), my percentages sink like a stone.

Curious to know what you all think.

Thanks,

~schlach

[Nick C]

I think I would bet the flop, while not caring much for the situation at all.

If UTG checkraised, you'd have to be nearly clairvoyant to put him on specifically a draw as great as 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. Even just a flush draw isn't particularly likely.

It's a tough spot, especially if Button has called your bet, because you don't really want to fold to the UTG LAG, who could just have 33 or something (plus, your set outs have some value versus the feared AA or AK), but your combined chances of being behind UTG and Button are pretty large.

I would probably just call and re-evaluate on the turn. But like I said, it's a tough spot. (Edit: Another problem is that the [seemingly] TAG Button probably would have 3-bet QQ preflop, so while you might be able to drive this hand out, your chances that that's even what he has aren't very good. In a pot this big, you would like to put pressure on a hand like 99, though, if you're ahead. And driving out AQ specifically, if you're ahead, would be terrific. So there certainly is a case to be made for a flop 3-bet. It sucks if Button is waiting to pounce with AK, though. Some people don't 3-bet that preflop. And if he has, say, KQs, then that sucks too. I wouldn't cold-call with that after the preflop action in the posted hand, but Button might.)

Anyway, though, if Button folds to your flop bet, and UTG checkraises, I'm calling down.

[Spartan1983]

[ QUOTE ]
if Button folds to your flop bet, and UTG checkraises, I'm calling down.

[/ QUOTE ]

Button is kind of the key in the hand to me. If he calls or raises your flop bet (if you made one, which you should have) then you re-evaluate on the turn. If you feel so strong about the villain having AA, fold the second he bets. Personally I'd be more concerned about the flush draw rather than the K from past experience with LAG's in this type of hand. LAG's forever limp/raise, limp/3bet with suited cards and non suited connectors.