does a good soldier protect his kings?

[eviljeff]

villain is a LAG after 30 hands

PokerRoom 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: eviljeff is K/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/spade.gif
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">eviljeff raises</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, eviljeff calls, MP1 folds.

anyone raise here? the only thing I want to fold that might fold is a weak A

Turn: (4.75 BB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, eviljeff calls.

not a good card, but I definitely don't want to raise here and I still think MHIG

River: (6.75 BB) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">eviljeff raises</font> ...

waiting 'til to the river to raise when HU is a really money move I've acquired recently. if he's been bluffing the whole way I didn't make him fold now. if I get 3bet I know I'm badly beaten and can lay down. anyone not fold to a 3bet here?

[Shillx]

This line is very reasonable in these spots, but it can oftentimes be better to just raise straight away against a LAG who will raise for days with something like QT.

Raising the turn is also a valid play if you feel like he is betting a draw and will not fold it (so JT in this case).

Brad

Edit - Not folding to a river 3-bet is beyond bad. You have to fold with this hand on this board.

[Durs522]

Grunch:

Like you said villian is lag. Raise the flop, bet the turn, bet the river. I think he's probably raising with a Q and not an AQ. He limp calls preflop so we shouldn't be too worried about an AQ or an A really. Why are we so worried about him folding here? I think the better idea would be to get him to call our raises with a weaker hand.

Durs

[Durs522]

[ QUOTE ]
Edit - Not folding to a river 3-bet is beyond bad. You have to fold with this hand on this board.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we're folding to a 3 bet why shouldn't we just call. I've seen this play discussed but I'm not sure I understand it.

Durs

[Shillx]

Let's just make up some numbers...

He will fold to the river raise 20% of the time.
He will call the raise (and lose) 50% of the time.
He will 3-bet us with a boss hand 30% of the time.

Do you see why you should raise the river here (and not call a 3-bet)?

EV(don't raise river) = 0 BB
EV(call 3-bet) = .5 BB - 2 BB(.3) = - .1 BB
EV(fold 3-bet) = .5 BB - .3 BB = + .2 BB

So there is clearly value in raising, but if you always payoff a 3-bet you should just call. These numbers are made up, but you should get the idea.

Brad

[Rev. Good Will]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Edit - Not folding to a river 3-bet is beyond bad. You have to fold with this hand on this board.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we're folding to a 3 bet why shouldn't we just call. I've seen this play discussed but I'm not sure I understand it.

Durs

[/ QUOTE ]

villian would probably 3-bet an 8 or an Ace, but very rarely an Q. But since villians most likely hand is no better than a Q, we have lots of value in a river raise.

[ddss6_99]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's just make up some numbers...

He will fold to the river raise 20% of the time.
He will call the raise (and lose) 50% of the time.
He will 3-bet us with a boss hand 30% of the time.

Do you see why you should raise the river here (and not call a 3-bet)?

EV(don't raise river) = 0 BB
EV(call 3-bet) = .5 BB - 2 BB(.3) = - .1 BB
EV(fold 3-bet) = .5 BB - .3 BB = + .2 BB

So there is clearly value in raising, but if you always payoff a 3-bet you should just call. These numbers are made up, but you should get the idea.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

Are those calculations something I should be doing every time I face a river bet/raise, or is it something that good players learn with experience?

[Rev. Good Will]

he made up those #'s to prove a point, deciding a range of hands based off opponents actions and acting accordingly

[GTSamIAm]

Raise/raise/raise. You usually only call on the flop heads up or three handed with a read on the third guy that he's probably folding anyways. And if villain is really lag, you're not folding to a three bet on the river. A call is probably better on the river here.

[Dave G.]

I don't like your line much.

Raise the flop. If he's a LAG he'll either 3-bet you or lead the turn which you can then also raise. If you get 3-bet, call it down and follow through with your plan. If he leads the turn, raise it as well.

If he slows down after a flop raise he's definitely not a LAG. You're missing a lot of bets here if he is.

[TomBrooks]

I don't know much about that slowplay stuff you were talking about. I think I'd raise the flop.

[eviljeff]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the better idea would be to get him to call our raises with a weaker hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

so basically what I'm worried about is that I can only get in one big bet raise without spewing. LAG does not mean maniac, and my read on villain is only 30 hands strong. say I raise the flop, he 3bets, I cap, and he leads the turn. can I really raise here? I think not. and this gets the same amount of money in the pot as waiting for a river raise, but the added bonus of the river raise is that he doesn't fold too early if he's bluffing.