Do you call without odds here?

[SomethingClever]

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB calls, Hero calls, MP calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP folds, Button calls, SB calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, Hero folds, Button calls.

[Kimpan]

why not bet the turn?

[SomethingClever]

[ QUOTE ]
why not bet the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Heads up I bet 100% of the time. I don't always bet into 2 guys because I get raised a lot and I almost never take down the pot UI.

[Kimpan]

do you use the same strategy with a flushdraw?
I am interested, because I think I would have bet this turn.

[irishpint]

i just bet, since it makes calling the raise easier and it makes a river c/r a possibility.

[SomethingClever]

[ QUOTE ]
do you use the same strategy with a flushdraw?
I am interested, because I think I would have bet this turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I bet a decent % of the time.

If I'm in position, I will often take a free card.

[joop]

I play this the same way, except the fold. I like the turn check because, like you said, you often get raised. And if you had bet, SB would have raised you and you would have had to pay too much for your draw.

Don't you have odds to draw to your straight? There are 8.5BB in the pot, if button calls the raise that's 9.5 and it's 2 to you, giving you 4.75:1, which is what you need to draw to 8 outs. Unless you are discounting 2 hearts, I think this is a call, especially given the implied odds when you raise the river. Is button the type to call two cold?

Edit: Can't CR river with SB on your right /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Piz0wn0reD!!!!!!]

i rarely fold 8 or 9 outers in limit holdem.

[Sakuraba]

If there are no more raises on the turn, you have to call 2 bets into a pot of 9.5 bets. Your draw is to the nuts - if you lose you fold so you will lose no more bets on the river (I am assuming you know your 7 and 8 are not good - this does depend somewhat on reads). You are 4.75 to 1 to make it and the pot is laying you exactly that. Given the action, you are almost always going to make a few bets on the river, so calling is right in this case.

If the turn is 3 bet, you have to essentially put in 3 bets to a pot of 11.5 (assuming the other button calls). So you are getting 3.83 to 1 from the pot. You would to make an average of 2.75 bets on the river to make this call worthwhile. Given the action, I think you are going to make this pretty often, because the button will usually bet the river after 3 betting the turn and the SB will call. At least the button will usually call the river.

The worst case is that the turn is capped and you essentially need to put in 4 bets into a pot of 13.5. You would only be getting 3.375 from the post. You would need to make an average of 5.5 bets on the river for this call to be good. This is unlikely, but not impossible, because both players probably have a big hand given the turn cap. I think this scenario is minorly -EV though because you really need a 3 way 3 bet on the river to make this +EV.

It is a really close decision, but I think the math shows that calling is right. You would have to make some assumptions on how often the turn was 3 bet and capped to really figure get a number and that is hard to do. Your hand is well disguised, which really helps your implied odds. I think that is an important point.

Hopefully, I got the math right on this. Obviously, you can't do this in the heat of battle though. (At least I can't)

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]
i just bet, since it makes calling the raise easier

[/ QUOTE ]

this is a very stupid reason to bet.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i just bet, since it makes calling the raise easier

[/ QUOTE ]

this is a very stupid reason to bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. It's horrible.

Krishan

[Mig]

I think that with the implied odds it's a break even call.

[wheelz]

Everyone leads this flop?

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
Everyone leads this flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

If button hadn't raised preflop I'd bet 100% of the time since this board is hard to have 2 overcards against. But since button raised I check/call check/call.

[Mig]

heads up I do, and In a 3 way pot when the pf raiser is weak

[Sakuraba]

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
Everyone leads this flop?



If button hadn't raised preflop I'd bet 100% of the time since this board is hard to have 2 overcards against. But since button raised I check/call check/call.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the button has a reasonably wide raising range and was at all tight postflop, I would check the flop with the intention of raising, particularly if the SB folded. If the button didn't 3 bet and everyone else had folded, I would lead the turn for sure. If anyone else called, it would depend on what I thought they would call with. If the button 3 bet, I would check and fold on the river if I missed and CR if I made the straight.

[MAxx]

Looks like a good call to me. You have 8 or 6 outs. We could say on avg 7, but I think its probabaly more like 7.5.

Step 1: Determine breakeven pot odds with one card to come:

Break-even pot odds with 7.5 outs on the turn is about 5.1-1.

Step 2: estimate the weighted avg proposition you are receiving.

Note: I am basing these calcs based on what odds you are getting based on the betting actions after your turn action, then weighting. I think most the time you are getting a 4.75 to 1 proposition here. For shits and giggles we'll weight that at 70% of the time. We'll say you got a 3.83 prop 20% of the time and a 3.375 prop 10% of the time. (.7 x 4.75) + (.2 x 3.83) + (.1 x 3.375)= 4.42 to 1. NOTE: that this does not consider that one of the other two fold, but afterall this is just an estimate anyway.

Step 3: compare odds of hitting your hand and pot odds-

5.1 to 1 &gt; 4.42 to 1

On the surface the immediate odds say this is a fold.

Step 4: Consider implied odds.

Do we expect to gain additional bets if we hit the hand? ANSWER: Yes we do, and we don't even need to get that many.

I say kizzall this biatch. If I have a math error, slap me cuzz I was too lazy to double check.

[SomethingClever]

I think I usually call here, even given that it's close.

I can't do a lot of precise math while I'm 4-tabling, but my estimate at the time was that it was right around a breakeven call, probably a little +EV considering implied odds.

But it's also variance inducing. Most of the time I'm calling 2 bets and losing. So I folded. This is stupid. This is what my horrible, horrible run is making me think.

And the gods taunted me.

[MAxx]

yeah i dont think there are many people, if any, that can do involved math at the table. its good to do it away from the table so that when these situations reoccur over and over again you instintively know what to do. your lack of a cold call is understandable, and i wouldnt wory about it.

your thought process at the table in the future could be something this:

its multiway in a raised pot and additional bets went in on the flop: in most cases, i will have the odds (or it will be at least close with implied odds) to call 2 turn bets cold with a good open-ender or good flush draw. you can of course figure the pot odds and make an quick and dirty estimate or look at a chart that shows the breakeven odds to hit an 8 outer, consider a little discounting, and figure your implied will cover your discounting. you probably know all this, but it helps to remind ourselves of things until they become routine.

good luck bro.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
i rarely fold 8 or 9 outers in limit holdem.

[/ QUOTE ]


especially when 6 are to the nuts