Interesting hand, did I grossly misplay this and where? [Archive]

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Mizzles

08-21-2005, 12:17 PM

Where did I screw this up? Funny I actually put the villian on 89 when he called my initial flop bet, I did not push the flop after SB pushes $300 all in because I WANTED BB to call w/ his 89, is that incorrect?

Then on the turn I just misplayed it, should have check/call at that point, I guess the hopefull side of me was just hoping he had 2 pair or the likes. Should I have folded to the turn push?

Most of you push the flop?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

CO ($2271)
Button ($1350)
SB ($338.50)
BB ($1031)
UTG ($1585)
Hero ($1247)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif. SB posts a blind of $5.
UTG raises to $30, Hero calls $30, 1 fold, Button calls $30, SB (poster) calls $25, 1 fold.

Flop: ($130) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $50, Button calls $50, SB is all in [$308.50], UTG folds, Hero calls $258.50, Button calls $258.50.

Turn: ($747) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
Hero bets $425, BB is all in [$1011.50], Hero calls [$483.50]

River: ($747) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)

Final Pot: $747

Hero shows [ 7c, 7h ] three of a kind, sevens.
BB shows [ 8h, 9h ] a straight, six to ten.
SB doesn't show [ Ah, Th ] a pair of tens.
BB wins $103 from side pot #2 with a straight, six to ten.
BB wins $1817 from side pot #1 with a straight, six to ten.
BB wins $1053.50 from the main pot with a straight, six to ten.

RikaKazak

08-21-2005, 12:28 PM

I play it very similar to the way you did, except I bet $65-$100 on the first bet. I think it's a case of oopps, cause you really want him if he has AT to stay in, or a scared JJ, cause blank turn and you can make more.

jrforman

08-21-2005, 12:39 PM

You got almost 550 in the pot on the flop, push and let button make a mistake by calling on a draw. Don't get too greedy, that was a big pot to take down right on the flop.

tradingman123

08-21-2005, 04:06 PM

I would push the flop. Most ppl have problems folding a set of fours here and the only other hand that I can see calling the short stack's all in raise is a donkey with his 10/7. so in other words, i dont see you really getting that many more dominated hands into the pot but you do allow the draws to draw very cheapily, esp given stack size and implied odds.

n1bd

08-21-2005, 05:11 PM

Where did I screw this up?
The turn.

I WANTED BB to call w/ his 89, is that incorrect?
You're correct, you want him to call (or, better, push) with 98, assuming you don't give him too many chips if he turns a straight.

Should I have folded to the turn push?
No, you're stuck at that point. You're about 3.5:1 to fill, assuming he doesn't have TT, but TT is really unlikely given the action, and you are getting an overlay anyway.

Most of you push the flop?
Yeah I always push the flop, but I think I'm wrong and I like your flat call better. No drawing hand can call correctly, so you give the button a chance to make a mistake. Crucially, you'd never raise here on a semi-bluff, since the side pot is dry, so there are no integration/shania considerations.

Of course, this all assumes you play the turn correctly.

Proofrock

08-21-2005, 05:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Where did I screw this up? Funny I actually put the villian on 89 when he called my initial flop bet, I did not push the flop after SB pushes $300 all in because I WANTED BB to call w/ his 89, is that incorrect?

[/ QUOTE ]

All hand % are calculated using poker stove.

Let's look at the flop. As played, Villain gets to close the action by putting ~$260 more into a pot that is already $797, giving Villain 3 to 1 odds to call. At this point, Villain is about 26% to win the hand at showdown, and is about 19% to make the straight on the next card. With implied odds, this is an easy call for Villain in my opinion. After villain calls, the pot is $1055.50.

Whether you want Villain to call I think depends a lot on how Villain will play the turn if he misses, and whether you'll get away from the hand if he hits (this is all assuming, as you stated, that you figured Villain for 89 -- I'm not wanting to be results oriented, but the question is whether or not you want a drawing button to stay in).

(1) Turn is a blank. You have ~$910 left. Given the implied odds (the rest of your stack is going in on the river no matter what), you need to bet close to half of your stack for this to be -EV for Villain. I don't know what you'd do, but I probably push here and expect Villain to fold.

(2) Turn completes the straight. Given the way it played out, you put the rest of your chips in and are about 21.4% to win the hand.

Result: If Villain folds any turn that doesn't make the straight and gets all the money in on a turn that does complete the straight, you're giving Villain 6.6 to 1 implied odds to call on the flop. This is almost exactly right to make the call correct (~20% Villain turns the straight and it holds up ~80% of the time). Throw in the 4% of the time that SB wins the main pot, and this becomes -EV for you.

Conclusion: Letting Villain stay in with an open-ended straight draw gives him near perfect odds to call you. Reraise (push) the flop.

I've done this pretty quickly, so I hope I didn't make any major mistakes. If I did, please let me know.

-cj

n1bd

08-21-2005, 07:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Turn completes the straight. Given the way it played out, you put the rest of your chips in and are about 21.4% to win the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hero should not put the rest of his chips in if a 6 or J turns, that is the key point of flat calling the flop.

If the turn is a blank, Hero bets out and blows Villain off the hand.

If turn is a 6/J, Hero checks. If Villain bets a small enough amount to give Hero odds to chase his boat, then he calls. If the bet is too big, Hero folds.

So Villain has no implied odds, because Hero has an exact read: There is only one strong draw, and Hero won't pay it off. Villain has to be making a mistake by calling on the flop, no matter what he has (except TT).<ul type="square"> If he has 98, he doesn't have odds to draw since Hero isn't paying him off (EV for 98 to call the flop bet is somewhere around -$75).
If he is tricky/dumb and is in there with a gutshot, then Hero will pay him off, but his implied odds are still not good enough, because his draw is too weak.
If Villain has something like AT or T9 and gets Hero to lay down the best hand on the turn, that's unfortunate, but Villain still made a mistake by calling the flop with his "8-scare-card-outer," and Hero profited more than if he had raised Villain off his hand. A made hand is unlikely, since a good made hand would probably raise at some point on the flop and a weaker one would fold, unless Villain is very passive. But it doesn't matter either way; Hero makes more from made hands by keeping them in even if he folds incorrectly on a J/6 turn.
[/list]

iceman5

08-21-2005, 07:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Where did I screw this up? Funny I actually put the villian on 89 when he called my initial flop bet, I did not push the flop after SB pushes $300 all in because I WANTED BB to call w/ his 89, is that incorrect?

Then on the turn I just misplayed it, should have check/call at that point, I guess the hopefull side of me was just hoping he had 2 pair or the likes. Should I have folded to the turn push?

Most of you push the flop?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

CO ($2271)
Button ($1350)
SB ($338.50)
BB ($1031)
UTG ($1585)
Hero ($1247)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif. SB posts a blind of $5.
UTG raises to $30, Hero calls $30, 1 fold, Button calls $30, SB (poster) calls $25, 1 fold.

Flop: ($130) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $50, Button calls $50, SB is all in [$308.50], UTG folds, Hero calls $258.50, Button calls $258.50.

Turn: ($747) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
Hero bets $425, BB is all in [$1011.50], Hero calls [$483.50]

River: ($747) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)

Final Pot: $747

Hero shows [ 7c, 7h ] three of a kind, sevens.
BB shows [ 8h, 9h ] a straight, six to ten.
SB doesn't show [ Ah, Th ] a pair of tens.
BB wins $103 from side pot #2 with a straight, six to ten.
BB wins $1817 from side pot #1 with a straight, six to ten.
BB wins $1053.50 from the main pot with a straight, six to ten.

[/ QUOTE ]

This post is screwed up. Is the guy with 98 the button or the BB?

Proofrock

08-21-2005, 09:04 PM

Of course hero shouldn't put the rest of his chips in if he is sure Villain turns the straight. But tell me seriously -- 6 comes off on the turn, Hero checks, Villain bets $373 (giving Hero exactly the right odds to call), Hero then check-folds the non-board-pairing river? When the pot is ~ 1800 and Hero has ~550 left, Hero is confident enough in his read that he folds the river, getting 4.5 to 1 to call?

I'm probably guilty of trying to mix a theoretical and a practical discussion here.

-cj

Mizzles

08-21-2005, 10:03 PM

oops

the guy w/ 89 is the button, i had to make some corrections from the coverter, and I messed it up sorry

Proofrock

08-21-2005, 10:15 PM

I think I need to elaborate what I just said. Hero has a set on this board. Hero's read isn't perfect (how can you assume based on Villain's action here that he has exactly 89 here?). Hero is trying to decide, if Villain does indeed have 89 in his hand range, if he should want him to come along. Unless Hero is very certain that Villain has exactly 89, I don't see how he gets away from this hand even when the straight hits.

If I'm Hero here, I'm betting / pushing any turn card. The worst hand I could be up against that I'm ahead of now is 89, so if that's a likely holding, I want to make sure Villain isn't going to have odds to hit the straight even if I get all of my money in the pot. Under different circumstances with different stack sizes then it would be fine, but I don't like it here.

-cj

tradingman123

08-22-2005, 09:00 AM

The crux of this hand appears to be hero's attempt to keep dominated hands in (AA/KK, T/7, 44) while offering negative odds to whoever may have the 8/9. Given what Proof just wrote earlier, I do not see how the hero can accomplish this. Any reraise of the all in bet would fold out any overpairs and the T/7. No reraise and the hero offering correct odds. Seems like a push is the best way to go since it folds out the draw and prob drags along the bottom set.

On second thought, does anyone like a mini-raise of the all in to perhaps (small chance) drag along the overpair and offer incorrect odds for the draw?

n1bd

08-22-2005, 03:57 PM

Hi Proofrock and tradingman123,

I'll say it again:

[ QUOTE ]
No reraise and the hero offering correct odds.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you flat call the all in, you offer insufficient odds for any hand to draw.

[ QUOTE ]
When the pot is ~ 1800 and Hero has ~550 left, Hero is confident enough in his read that he folds the river, getting 4.5 to 1 to call?

[/ QUOTE ]
You don't have to be confident in your read when you fold, because you are not worried about being wrong. Keeping the button in the hand and later folding incorrectly after a 6/J hits is preferable to blowing him away on the flop; you profit more by keeping him in, even if your 6/J fold is incorrect.

Here is the math. For simplicity, I'll ignore the chance of the SB sucking out. He is drawing super thin, so this simplification doesn't affect the results much.

RERAISE FLOP

Hero reraises the flop and blows the button away.

EV = $488.50

FLAT CALL ON FLOP, J/6 ON TURN, TRY TO DRAW TO BOAT

Hero flat calls the all in and lets the button in. It doesn't matter what the button has; he could have 98, he could have 22. If a J/6 turns, the button bets $229, giving Hero break-even odds to draw to a boat (assuming no implied odds), so Hero calls. If Hero fills on the river, he goes all in and the button folds; this is a conservative assumption, since a straight probably pays off the boat. If Hero misses on the river, he check-folds; this is a conservative assumption, since in real life, Hero sometimes gets a free showdown. If a J/6 doesn't turn, Hero bets the button out of the pot.

EV = 39/47 * 747 + 8/47 * (36/46 * -537.5 + 10/46 * 976) = $584.37

FLAT CALL ON FLOP, FOLD TO J/6 ON TURN

Hero flat calls the all in and lets the button in. It doesn't matter what the button has; he could have 98, he could have 22. If a J/6 turns, the button bets $99 bazillion or $230 or anything too expensive for Hero's boat draw, and Hero folds.

EV = 39/47 * 747 + 8/47 * -308.5 = $567.34

FLAT CALL ON FLOP, PAY OFF UNREADABLE SUCKOUT

Just to be complete, let's look at cases where the button has a hand other than 98 that can outdraw Hero on the turn. When this happens, Hero pays off with his stack, because he has misread the button's hand. Hands like J9 and AA are in this category. The strongest unreadable draw that the button can have is a gutshot like J9, giving him 4 outs.

EV = 43/47 * 747 + 4/47 * -1167 = $584.11

08-22-2005, 05:29 PM

The turn. If you already had put him on 8 9 why would you bet so much on the turn and then be forced to call the all-in hoping you fill up? You were "hoping" you were wrong on the 8 9. You put yourself in a position to have to call the all-in bet. You proved he received proper odds to call on his draw by paying him in full on the backend. Either push on the flop or be ready to fold on the turn. Anything in between is a mistake.