$109s - 22 Hand [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

Unarmed

08-21-2005, 10:21 AM

No reads yet.
Nothing too interesting.
I'll drop it on the turn if he bets.
I'm calling pretty much anything on the river.
Posting it b/c I think the flop min-raise is honestly all that's required in situations like this.
Betting anything more is just spewing chips IMO. Thoughts?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG+1 (t940)
UTG+2 (t1735)
MP1 (t985)
MP2 (t935)
MP3 (t295)
CO (t1135)
Button (t910)
SB (t1220)
Hero (t1025)
UTG (t820)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t45, 7 folds, Hero calls t30.

Flop: (t100) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets t45, Hero raises to t100, UTG+1 calls t55.

Turn: (t300) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks.

River: (t300) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks.

Final Pot: t300

gumpzilla

08-21-2005, 10:26 AM

Interesting. I kinda like it with all of the provisos you put on. I think the minraise on the flop with no more betting on later streets is going to induce a river bluff reasonably often, so I think it's important that you're planning on calling there. I do think a raise to 150 or so is more likely to make a 7 or an 8 fold - a lot of people just have a hard time folding to minraises - so I prefer that, but I think this line is fine.

ilikeaces

08-21-2005, 10:42 AM

Me no likey. Check fold the flop

bigt439

08-21-2005, 10:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Betting anything at all is just spewing chips IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem here is that he is calling your raise 95% of the time regardless of his hand. Since your plan is to not put any more money in the pot, he's going to get to see the next two cards for free. Even a hand like 2 overs and a gutshot has tremendous equity against you since they're seeing two cards. Any pair obviously has you totally crushed and it's very possible he could have something like 44 or K7. Flush draws don't fold and they're ahead of you too.

So this means that you're almost never better than 40% to win the hand (obviously sometimes you are, but not much), and a fair amount of the time you are 10% to win the hand. Since you have already committed to not outplaying him I just don't think the numbers add up. I guess you snag a river bluff every once and a while for a nice bet, but you also pay random cards off on the end because you have no idea what he has.

I think this flop just gave way too many hands way too much equity against your hand, and gave some other hands total domination over it. Since he is almost never folding to this raise (for what it's worth I think a bigger raise is an even bigger mistake), I think you're making an error. Another thing I usually think about is I'd much rather have my 800 - 1000 chips than I would have the extra 1000 - 1200 chips; they're more useful for doubling up. Obviously not a deciding factor, but relevant.

ChuckNorris

08-21-2005, 10:57 AM

I don't see the villain folding many hands they bet with to the miniraise. Definately not overcards or any straight draw. It is also tempting for them to call with questionable hands hands like almost any pair, as they have position and your miniraise looks a lot like a bluff, so they can safely call and hope for a cheap showdown.

Unarmed

08-21-2005, 11:01 AM

Sorry, my post was unclear.
I shut down on the turn because one of his key cards fell.
Most turn cards I lead for half-2/3 pot.

brimstone1

08-21-2005, 11:02 AM

From what I gather, shouldn't you be further representing the straight on the turn?

After you raise the flop with 22, didn't your hand magically become JT, T6, or 65 [at least at the $109s]? (or two pair, a set, something more than "the" underpair)

Why wouldn't you bet your straight/hand here?

Without reads, why are we putting Villain on just a high card and not a 9, 8, 7? two pair, or some other hand higher than 22?

Are we putting him on AK-AT? (because of the pre-flop raise?)

WHAT THE CHRIST IS HAPPENING HERE?

The $109s confuse me :\

edit: Wouldn't it be even better if you bet when his key card fell? He knows you know he has face cards (the preflop bet), and he would assume you wouldn't bet a pair of 9s when the K fell, so wouldn't you betting out on the turn be a good play here?

Unarmed

08-21-2005, 11:43 AM

Ok first off, this guy bet t45 into an insanely co-ordinated board. Its HU, but honestly, people just don't do that very often with strong hands. I put him on AK/AQ/KQ. That's pretty much it. So I'm ahead, and there is no chance I'm folding here. F*ck that /images/graemlins/grin.gif

So what should I do? Well, flat calling and checking the turn is bad, and I don't think I need to point why. Calling and leading the turn is better, but would I do that with two-pair, a flopped straight? Probably not, I'd raise the flop. So how much should I raise?

I don't think most typical 109ers will fold AK/AQ to a min-raise. I don't think they'll fold AK/AQ to a full pot raise either (or mathematically, the added times they fold is not worth the cost of the additional chips). Min-raising there isn't meant to fold out villain, its meant to see if he'll allow me to take control of the hand. If the turn blanks I can lead and most opponents will now drop their AK/AQ. It's weird, but they're more likely to dump on the turn because there's only one card left. It makes no sense, but thats the way fish typically think. As an aside, thats also why you should play your good hands quickly most of the time.

When the K hits, I'm either dead or still ahead. If he has the K and I bet, HE IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE. Perhaps on the flop he thought, oh sh*t this guy probably has two pair. Trust me, those thoughts will quickly evaporate if he hits his magical TPTK. In a cash/big tournament scenario against a thinking opponent, you can lead that turn and take them off the better hand on the river. Against the typical 109er, attempting to do that is outright suicide.

Anyway, the nice thing about the flop min-raise is people have been trained to think DANGER whenever they see it. So the odds of me being moved off the best hand on the turn are actually pretty low IMO. On the river its pretty obvious he has nothing, so I check and hope to snap off a stupid bluff.

bigt439

08-21-2005, 12:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, my post was unclear.
I shut down on the turn because one of his key cards fell.
Most turn cards I lead for half-2/3 pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh. I gotta say I still really don't like it. I think you bluff him off of a better hand very rarely (some 7's fold obviously, but I think they call more than we'd like in this situation) and thus get called down alot. The problem with the turn is that so many cards can help the villain and we really don't know which ones they are (since he can have so many hands). What do you do if an A,Q,J,T, or 6 comes? Since you shut down because of the K, I'd assume you'd shut down for those cards as they are all equally as scary.

What happens if you do make the lead and get called? I have to assume you're checking the river (please don't have plans for that too /images/graemlins/grin.gif). This gives him another chance to win the pot by betting with something like a busted QT.

I've really been attacking your line and it's not because I think it's stupid or anything. I understand your thinking. He made a somewhat standard raise and then what looked to be a weak continuation bet, why not attack it. I'm just saying that you're beat (even if by marginal hands that probably aren't folding) a decent amount of the time, and the times that you aren't your opponents have a lot of equity against you. You're usually pretty lost as to what hands your opponent has and you're bluffing out of position. I'm sure you know why bluffing out of position is extremely difficult and this doesn't seem to be the right situation to try it.

Without any reads I don't see a reason to risk these chips for what is very little reward (If your bluff works you have ~t1200, if it fails ~t700; obviously oversimplifying, but I maintain the difference between 1000 and 700 is much more meaningful than 1200 and 1000.)

gumpzilla

08-21-2005, 12:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Meh. I gotta say I still really don't like it. I think you bluff him off of a better hand very rarely (some 7's fold obviously, but I think they call more than we'd like in this situation) and thus get called down alot.

[/ QUOTE ]

One thing that I missed my first time reading this was that it was an UTG+1 raiser, so holdings with a 7 or 8 are pretty unlikely.

bigt439

08-21-2005, 12:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Meh. I gotta say I still really don't like it. I think you bluff him off of a better hand very rarely (some 7's fold obviously, but I think they call more than we'd like in this situation) and thus get called down alot.

[/ QUOTE ]

One thing that I missed my first time reading this was that it was an UTG+1 raiser, so holdings with a 7 or 8 are pretty unlikely.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. Less likely, for sure, but a raise to that in ep can be a lot more hands than reason would dictate. (98s or A7o would not surprise me at all for instance - strictly regarding preflop). Your point is obviously valid, I'm just saying there is still a reasonable chance he could have a 7 or an 8.

ReDeYES88

08-21-2005, 01:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Ok first off, this guy bet t45 into an insanely co-ordinated board. Its HU, but honestly, people just don't do that very often with strong hands. I put him on AK/AQ/KQ. That's pretty much it. So I'm ahead, and there is no chance I'm folding here. F*ck that /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

In your experience at the $109s, how would you expect UTG+1 to play JJ or QQ on this flop? Related to that, do you think his preflop action would have been different with either of those hands?

bennies

08-21-2005, 01:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Ok first off, this guy bet t45 into an insanely co-ordinated board. Its HU, but honestly, people just don't do that very often with strong hands. I put him on AK/AQ/KQ. That's pretty much it. So I'm ahead, and there is no chance I'm folding here. F*ck that /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice post, thanks!

I have a question though. How certain are you that you are in front? You seem very certain, so I suppose you think of the minraise as a value bet. If you do, and you know he will call, why not make it bigger = more value?

bigt439

08-21-2005, 01:08 PM

Your logic is very good, in that if your read of his hand is correct you played it nicely.

[ QUOTE ]
I put him on AK/AQ/KQ. That's pretty much it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your range is dangerously small IMO, especially considering you don't have any reads.

microbet

08-21-2005, 01:18 PM

Unarmed

08-21-2005, 01:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Your logic is very good, in that if your read of his hand is correct you played it nicely.

[ QUOTE ]
I put him on AK/AQ/KQ. That's pretty much it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your range is dangerously small IMO, especially considering you don't have any reads.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I know, I need to use less strong language in my posts. He could have AJ/AT/QJs as well as other hands. I was just thinking of the ones he's going to flip up the majority of the time.

bigt439

08-21-2005, 01:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Your logic is very good, in that if your read of his hand is correct you played it nicely.

[ QUOTE ]
I put him on AK/AQ/KQ. That's pretty much it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your range is dangerously small IMO, especially considering you don't have any reads.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I know, I need to use less strong language in my posts. He could have AJ/AT/QJs as well as other hands. I was just thinking of the ones he's going to flip up the majority of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand, but it's a big distinction because it creates so many more scare cards on the turn, which screw up your plan. Have you considered a badly played overpair, set, or straight at all? Those wouldn't surprise me. When you're going to take such a challenging line (bluffing / playing very marginal hands out of position into a preflop raiser) you need to be very sure what you opponent has and how he will play his likely holdings. Without any reads and given the action I don't think you can be nearly certain enough to execute this play.

ChoicestHops

08-21-2005, 01:37 PM

Too early and bad flop to pull a FPS for me.

Unarmed

08-22-2005, 09:18 AM

I guess a set/overpair is possible. But honestly, I think the majority of the time this is overcards on an obvious c-bet. I don't know, when someone makes what looks like a weak bet, I'm normally quite happy to shove it directly back up their @ss. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Jman28

08-22-2005, 10:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Posting it b/c I think the flop min-raise is honestly all that's required in situations like this.
Betting anything more is just spewing chips IMO. Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't really think it's spewing chips.

You think you have the best hand. You think that you will be called.

Seems like you get value out of all the chips you raise.

By the way, this is a very well played hand, and one that I would've played differently/worse. Thanks for posting it.

About putting people on narrow ranges. Obviously he could have any cards here, as you don't know him that well. But I don't think there's anything wrong with putting him on a specific range and acting accordingly as long as the hands in that range are much more likely than others, which I think they are, and as long as you keep an open mind when further betting action develops.

Unarmed

08-22-2005, 10:41 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Posting it b/c I think the flop min-raise is honestly all that's required in situations like this.
Betting anything more is just spewing chips IMO. Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't really think it's spewing chips.
You think you have the best hand. You think that you will be called.
Seems like you get value out of all the chips you raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thaks for the reply J,

I completely agree with you. However, he definitely *could* have AA/KK/99 here, and if he pops me back I know immediately. Also, there's something to be said for not bloating the pot OOP with a vulnerable hand, especially when its going to be a tricky one to play on many turn/river cards.

bigt439

08-22-2005, 05:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I guess a set/overpair is possible. But honestly, I think the majority of the time this is overcards on an obvious c-bet. I don't know, when someone makes what looks like a weak bet, I'm normally quite happy to shove it directly back up their @ss. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

After you've defended your points so well I think I have come to a conclusion that this seems to be somewhat of a stylistic play. If that's how you roll, go for it, if not I don't think you're sacrificing too much.

Your point about smelling weakness and punishing it totally makes sense, and I'd be a bad player if I didn't feel the same way. My problem with this specific situation is the times we are behind (not all that often, I'll give you that), coupled with the times that we let our opponent catch up, either on the turn card (sometimes), or on a free river card because a scare card hit (sometimes), or our opponent outplay us (not that often, we're amazing /images/graemlins/grin.gif), doesn't make up for the times we win the pot. And if it does, I feel like we put in a disproportionate amount of chips when we lose than when we win (obviously my point is more when we lose), largely because we are out of position.

I really think that this hand is so close that you could play it either way and be fine, this is just my personal take on it because I'm a puss. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

bigt439

08-22-2005, 05:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]

About putting people on narrow ranges. Obviously he could have any cards here, as you don't know him that well. But I don't think there's anything wrong with putting him on a specific range and acting accordingly as long as the hands in that range are much more likely than others, which I think they are, and as long as you keep an open mind when further betting action develops.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. This is obviously true. You can't be scared to put people on a range just because you're not 100% sure that this is their range. My point was regarding the degree of certainty that we can put our opponent on the range. The degree of uncertainty we have should be a contributing factor to deciding how to play the hand.

microbet

08-22-2005, 06:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
About putting people on narrow ranges. Obviously he could have any cards here, as you don't know him that well. But I don't think there's anything wrong with putting him on a specific range and acting accordingly as long as the hands in that range are much more likely than others, which I think they are, and as long as you keep an open mind when further betting action develops.

[/ QUOTE ] - Jman

[ QUOTE ]
Ok first off, this guy bet t45 into an insanely co-ordinated board. Its HU, but honestly, people just don't do that very often with strong hands. I put him on AK/AQ/KQ. That's pretty much it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think at this point, the read "he probably doesn't have a strong hand" is good. But "AK/AQ/KQ. That's pretty much it.", is going pretty far. How can AJ and AT and maybe A7 or A8 not fit in there and also why not 33,44,55?

Unarmed

08-22-2005, 06:10 PM

Hi Micro,

[ QUOTE ]
How can AJ and AT and maybe A7 or A8 not fit in there and also why not 33,44,55?

[/ QUOTE ]

I forget what level you play, but 33/44/55/A7/A8 are hardly ever raised to 3xBB UTG+1 at the 109s. Maybe I just have a wonky sample, but that's been my experience. AJ and AT are possibilities, albeit much less likely than AK/AQ, for obvious reasons.

I just worded my original post too strongly. I mean, he can have 27o here. Most of the time he will have AK/AQ. Either way, I have the best hand on the flop. My reverse implied odds aren't all that tasty, but I have a real hard time folding the best hand to a half pot bet.

Honestly, I think all of the skilled players on this board should welcome spots like this. Mix it up a bit. You may lose a point off your ROI but the experience you gain will make you a far better player in the long run.