They call this poker?!?

[manku]

After watching the first two episode of the WPT on the Travel Channel, I've come up with one conclusion: NL HE is not real poker.

When people are throwing all their money in PREFLOP with hands like 55, how is skill involved. Virtually every hand was a coin toss. I think one reason you don't see a lot of repeat winners in these events is due to the "gambling" nature of the game: with so many aggressive, loose players, does anyone really have an edge?

In college we used to play a game called "guts": everyone would get two cards (AA best, 23 worst) and would simultaneous declare whether they were in the pot or not. If you were in and won, you won the pot. In and lost, you matched. Obviously, pots got HUGE when there were multiple players after the declare.

NL HE, IMO, isn't much different.

Manku

[RiverMel]

Actually, I don't have the statistic in front of me, but a surprisingly large number of WSOP winners have repeated. It was way, way above what you'd expect if it was a game of chance and every player had an equal chance. When you started to look at repeating finishes in the money, the likliehood of it being due to chance is even lower. One thing you may be forgetting is that we see far from every hand on these shows--they surely include all of the pre-flop all-ins (makes for great TV) but they exclude a large number of other hands. I also have a feeling that you may not understand the nuances and context which go into these all-in decisions. That is not an insult, I am just saying that if your entire knowledge of NLHE is coming from watching these two shows (and your post made that seem to be the case), then I can't blame you for missing the complexity of the decisions. The commentating on the shows was fine, but I could easily see how it could still appear like a huge gambling game rather than poker to the inexperienced. NLHE is far, far, FAR from the crapshoot you seem to be suggesting it is.

[Moose]

This is one key point you are forgetting - these people resorting to crap shoots do so once their stacks are so small that they have no choice but to roll the bones, so to speak.

A major part of skill in tournaments, especially in no-limit, is to accumulate a larger stack so that you can be above the people duking it out in these coin-tosses, so that you can manoeuvre and continue to accumulate wealth.

M.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Also remember that we're just seeing the final table. In addition to the stack issues you point out, it's also short-handed, so by this time it's become more a game of "play the man" than about standard strategy. I suspect that the play of many of these players would look a lot different were we to see them in the early or middle stages of the event.

[maplepig]

if they always push in with cards like 55, just wait for premium hands and push in, i think it will gain you a great edge. Assuming you have to win 4 times to get you the money, the one averages 45% win rate for every hand has a winning chance of 0.45^4 = 0.041 and your chance is 0.55^4=0.091. Just a simple example.

[Rich P.]

I think what we are seeing is people choking. The 55 is not a good example, because short handed, a pair is a strong hand. He was also just one off the button against three random hands. He just ran into a bigger pair.

Conversely, there were plenty of hands where the players simply cracked. There is a lot of pressure in a tournament and long extended periods of concentration. At the end, it's probably not unsual for players to fall apart. An example of cracking and going on tilt is when Neeb (?) got his Aces cracked by Hon and just totally lost it thereafter.

I think NL requires a great deal of skill. In limit, you can always fall back of the chances that you're are beat. I NL, you must ask whether or not you ARE beat. One mistake, and it's all over. It actually takes a great deal of skill.
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[Ed Miller]

After watching the first two episode of the WPT on the Travel Channel, I've come up with one conclusion: NL HE is not real poker.

No-limit Holdem is not the culprit... the culprit is very large blinds and antes compared with stack sizes. The game is a very, very different beast with deep stacks. Unfortunately, tournament play requires that the blinds and antes to be large compared to the average stack size to end the tournament in a timely fashion.

I just had an interesting thought... instead of playing tournament poker until everyone is broke except one person, raising the blinds and antes in time to ensure that this happens... why not leave the blinds at a fixed, low level and then the winner is just the player with the biggest stack at the end of a fixed time limit. Hrmmm....

[RiverMel]

why not leave the blinds at a fixed, low level and then the winner is just the player with the biggest stack at the end of a fixed time limit. Hrmmm....

They used to play it this way. Everyone kept whatever was in front of them after a set time limit. Apparently people didn't like it as much. My guess is that people find it less exciting. I would tend to agree, although I admit I've never actually played one like this.

[manku]

Regarding the blinds, Kathy pushed her whole stack in with AK preflop when I believe the blinds were only 1000 (she had at least 100K at the time).

Also, when the 55 went against 88, the blinds were also small in relation to the stack sizes.

Later in the tourney, when the blinds/antes do get large, I agree that you are forced to bet marginal hands.

Manku

[manku]

I don't care how short handed it is, a pair of 5's is garbage. BTW, I've played my share of NL poker tourneys in my life (mostly smaller limits) with moderate success.

Against any two overcards, 55 is barely a favorite. And unless you spike a 5 on the flop, you'll have a real tough decision if the other player bets.

I agree that we didn't see the grinding out that defines the better players in these tourneys.

manku

[RiverMel]

And unless you spike a 5 on the flop, you'll have a real tough decision if the other player bets.

Obviously. Which is why it gains a fair amount of value from being all-in. It is far from a terrible decision to move all-in with a pair of fives if you are short-stacked and think there is a fair chance the other players will all fold. Even if you're called, you have a pretty good shot of doubling up.

[Mash]

I play in a tourn where when the final table gets down to 3 players the tourn is over and whoever has the most chips is the winner. I don't like that rule.

But hey, if it's cards...deal me in!

[Eric P]

If you watched on wednesday (which is what i belive we are talking about... and i didn't see the last five or so minutes, so i really hope i didn't miss anything) and you saw Hon get beat down once it was heads up, then you would know that this is poker. That check raise with the Q-6 was beautiful, and that was a total mind game at that point, i wouldn't even make that call in a 3-6 game but he knew that hon was pissed, and loved to catch people bluffing. He played great except for raising those aces...

Saying that five's are garbage no matter the situation is rediculous, he is better off with fives than a load of other hands.

[MtSmalls]

I think the last sentence in your post is the defining one here. "We didn't SEE the grinding out that defines the better players". We didn't see 90+% of the hands at the final table, and we certainly didn't see the two or three days leading up to the final table. The WPT and Travel Channel are doing a very good job here, making it both interesting and exciting, not the usual watching the grass grow of a grinding 6 hour final table...

[limon]

your conclusion that nlhe is not real poker is just plain wrong. the wpt is NOT nlhe it's tournament poker and tournament poker in the latter stages is very much a coin flip proposition. tournaments, unlike other "sporting" events are won in the first half. winning is just getting in the money, after that the luck factor is so great that most who get in the money have an equal chance of winning, the overlay comes in the fact that they are splitting the money of BAAAAD buted out players who have no chance of winning.

if you dont beleive nlhe is real poker please come to binions during april and play the side games with me.