1 – 2 NL (200 max) at Turning Stone Hand #2

[Proofrock]

Shortly after Hand #1 (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=3196902&page=0&view=colla psed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1), same cast of characters:

Hero(320) is on the button with 10/images/graemlins/heart.gif8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Tight kid(~300) is in middle position and has just started racking up his chips to leave.
Loose passive guy (320) is in late position.

Preflop: 4 people limp to Hero, Hero limps, SB folds, BB raises to 12, all of the limpers call, Hero calls.

Flop (73): 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7/images/graemlins/club.gif 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif
Limps to tight kid who bets 20, loose passive guy calls 20, Hero calls 20, everybody else folds.

Turn (133): 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif
Tight kid bets 40, loose passive guy calls 40, Hero calls 40.

River (253): 2/images/graemlins/club.gif
Tight kid thinks a bit, then gives an "I give up" check. Loose passive guy checks. Hero bets 80.

Thoughts?

-cj

[conslice]

pretty standard all but the preflop call

[Proofrock]

Do you mean the original preflop limp is not standard, or calling the raise to 12 isn't standard? By not standard, do you mean unusual, or bad?

Though I'm not crazy about 10 8 offsuit, I'm happy to limp with it in position, and then call on the button getting 5 to 1 pot odds.

-cj

[stu-unger]

its not standard to limp or call a raise with T8o, that doesn't make it bad with position. i bet the river too but i want to make sure i have some fold equity when i do it. if either of these guys is likely to be check calling then i just give up.

[djoyce003]

is loose passive guy a calling station?

You are betting 80 into a $250 pot...the dudes are getting 4-1 on their call. The board is relatively drawless....the only other draws that are out there on the flop besides yours got there on the turn. That being said, i think it's fairly certain that at least one of them has a piece of this, or a pocket pair....I think this $80 bet you made gets called a LOT of the time. I think you need to push it to pick up any fold equity. I'm checking or pushing here....no way am I only betting 80 at it.

[Proofrock]

Loose passive guy is something of a calling station with any one pair hand, but he plays his draws the same way. My thinking was as follows:

tightish kid is racking up -- he bought in with the 200, he has some profit now, his hand is marginal. I bet enough that it would cut into his original 200.
the loose passive guy will probably call almost any bet with a pair of nines (pushing is an idea ... I'm not sure what he'd do there. probably call with TPTK or better?), and will fold with a busted draw or second pair.

80 accomplishes the same thing if he has a busted draw or lower pair, but loses less when he has a monster hand like A9. Besides, pushing appears a little supsicious to me here after being so passive in the hand up to this point. I'd be much more inclined to do this with the nuts at least once before I do it with air.

-cj

[djoyce003]

well like I said before, the only draw out there that didn't get there is your 10 8. If he had 6 4 on that flop it got there on the turn. and there was no flush draw on the flop. Unless he's calling these big bets with a gutshot or overcards...Is he that bad?

I agree the kids folding to the 80 bet even with top pair i'd think. Your push doesn't look all that suspicious when you consider that the pot is 250 bucks. It would really be about a pot sized bet. If i'm betting at this pot, it's going to be a lot more than 80....but if you suspect that the LP guy has TPTK and will call any bet, then i'm giving up as well.....this hand is totally read dependent really. I don't like the size of your river bet at all....it's basically begging to get called and isn't really putting someone with top pair to a decision....a guy with 10 9 is going to call here I think.

This boils down to the level of LP's donkitude....and the best way to get their money is with strong made hands, not bluffs.

[Proofrock]

[ QUOTE ]
well like I said before, the only draw out there that didn't get there is your 10 8. If he had 6 4 on that flop it got there on the turn. and there was no flush draw on the flop. Unless he's calling these big bets with a gutshot or overcards...Is he that bad?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. Yes he is.

[ QUOTE ]
Your push doesn't look all that suspicious when you consider that the pot is 250 bucks. It would really be about a pot sized bet. If i'm betting at this pot, it's going to be a lot more than 80....but if you suspect that the LP guy has TPTK and will call any bet, then i'm giving up as well.....this hand is totally read dependent really. I don't like the size of your river bet at all....it's basically begging to get called and isn't really putting someone with top pair to a decision....a guy with 10 9 is going to call here I think.

This boils down to the level of LP's donkitude....and the best way to get their money is with strong made hands, not bluffs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good points. It is all about reads and levels of donkishness. Although it would be mathematically correct for many hands to call given the pot odds, LP didn't ever seem to consider the pot odds, but rather seemed to think that 80 was a big bet, and both players spent an uncharacteristically long time thinking about the bet before making their decision.

I figured the only way I could win the pot was to bet at it, and the checks on the river gave me that opportunity. When choosing the bet size, I was figuring a value between 80 and 150 would be appropriate based on the players, and thought 80 would win the same amount but lose me less.

But I agree -- if I'm going to take a stab at this pot, a larger bet (push?) is in order. I didn't think that the extra amount would buy that much more folding equity, but in retrospect it would have been more appropriate.

-cj

[meleader2]

[ QUOTE ]
is loose passive guy a calling station?

You are betting 80 into a $250 pot...the dudes are getting 4-1 on their call. The board is relatively drawless....the only other draws that are out there on the flop besides yours got there on the turn. That being said, i think it's fairly certain that at least one of them has a piece of this, or a pocket pair....I think this $80 bet you made gets called a LOT of the time. I think you need to push it to pick up any fold equity. I'm checking or pushing here....no way am I only betting 80 at it.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree. definetly too cheap even 100$ looks horrid. 150$ fold to raise of course. a push though seems really bad. 150$ look like a solid value bet, a push looks to me like "i dunno what i'm doing so i'm going to push"

[w_alloy]

If loose passive is bad enough to play this way with overs or a gut shot, as op has stated, I think a bet of 80 is near perfect.

[DaveduFresne]

Tight player has one of a very few hands (unless you and I's definition of tight are diferrent). He either hit a set on the flop, has pocket sixes, or potentially Jacks or Tens.

I put my money on a set here. If he really is tight and is about to leave, he is not going to involve himself in a hand that isn't a monster.

I know the mentallity of a tight player who wants to protect a small win, I get that feeling all the time. He's simply not going to involve himself without an overpair or set. He checks on the end because of the straight possibility, afraid he'll get raised if he bets.

Loose passive guy being in there is even worse, personally I hate the bluff here. If loose passive was the one about to leave, I might like it.

[Proofrock]

[ QUOTE ]
Tight player has one of a very few hands (unless you and I's definition of tight are diferrent). He either hit a set on the flop, has pocket sixes, or potentially Jacks or Tens.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was vague and misleading when I called him tight. What I should have written was, "tight-ish, timid, and straightforward" -- large bet = strong hand, small bet = marginal hand. That being said, based on limp-call preflop, I'd put him on something like 9 10s here. He's likely to be playing especially timidly right now, because he's racking up to leave, and I don't think he's willing to jeopardize his winning session without a strong hand.

The issue, as I see it, is I definitely can't beat tightish player's hand, but it should be easy to push him off of his hand, especially with a third player left to act behind him. Loose passive player could have a busted draw or an especially weak hand, or he could have a monster like 9 8. I expect that he's calling just about any bet with 9x or better and is folding most other hands to any reasonable bet.

If either player bets before me, I muck. Since they both checked, I either muck or take a stab at it. I decided to take a stab at it for the reasons stated above. Given this, the only question is how much to bet. A larger bet than $80 seems better, but only if it adds significant folding equity. Given the calling station in the hand, I'm not sure a larger bet accomplishes this, but perhaps I'm overestimating how far he'll go with top pair, in which case 150 now seems like a much better bet to me.

-cj