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View Full Version : So the pot is laying me 860 to 1...

Monty Cantsin
08-21-2005, 12:40 AM
Both villains are mostly unknown. Neither has done anything particularly noteworthy over the 10 or 15 hands I've seen.

A few hands earlier (or was it last hand?) BB 3-bet me out of the SB with 77, so we know she's capable of pre-flop aggression.

They're both shortstacked, so we know they're not that good.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.

I will often cap here. At the moment, I wasn't so confident in my folding equity and I decided to see the flop for 3 bets instead.

Flop: (9.40 SB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>...

I think I probably should have raised this initial bet. But again, I had recently made a move against BB that had been snapped off (with the aforementioned 77) and I was pretty sure I needed to make a hand to win this and figured I might as well see what developed. Ok, I admit it, I was feeling greedy too.

...Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO caps</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.

Ok, now I figure there's some chance I might be up against a flopped flush and 3 Queens. I really hope the river doesn't pair after I turn a diamond!

Turn: (10.70 BB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>...

Both players are now down to their last bets. Well, you can't bluff someone who's all in...

...Hero calls, CO calls $2 (All-In).

I really hope the diamond I'm about to river isn't the 6...

River: (12.90 BB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 1 all-in)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $0.15 (All-In)</font> and Hero makes a crying call using this:

http://www.decisionproblem.com/weep.jpg

Final Pot: 12.93 BB

I'm not crazy about how I played the rest of this hand, but I'm pretty sure this call is seriously +EV. <font color="white">Can you guess the surprise ending?</font>

/mc
Danenania
08-21-2005, 01:14 AM
I think a PF cap and flop raise should both be automatic given the situations. No room for metagame stuff. Nice river call.
bdmcgraw
08-21-2005, 01:17 AM
fold the river, I don't think you are good here often enough. You need to be winning 0.1% of the time for this call to be +EV
Monty Cantsin
08-21-2005, 01:29 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I think a PF cap and flop raise should both be automatic given the situations. No room for metagame stuff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. I went tharn.

/mc
Alobar
08-21-2005, 01:36 AM
you dont cap PF for folding equity, you do it for value
cdxx
08-21-2005, 02:32 AM
my two cents:

the river is -EV (i don't care if it's 860-1), though it may be close. (joke might as well call)

raising the turn all-in is +EV.
Monty Cantsin
08-21-2005, 03:24 AM
[ QUOTE ]
my two cents:

the river is -EV (i don't care if it's 860-1), though it may be close.

[/ QUOTE ]
You're kidding, right? You realize, of course, that I dragged this pot. I know results don't matter and everything, but still the fact that it did happen means that it can happen!

[ QUOTE ]
raising the turn all-in is +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure I see that. How do you figure?

/mc
oreogod
08-21-2005, 03:59 AM
what if it was a full bet to u, do u call the river?
cdxx
08-21-2005, 04:05 AM
[ QUOTE ]

You're kidding, right? You realize, of course, that I dragged this pot. I know results don't matter and everything, but still the fact that it did happen means that it can happen!

[/ QUOTE ]

technically speaking, it doesn't mean that it happens as often as 1/860 of the time. /images/graemlins/smile.gif good job dragging it though.

[ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure I see that. How do you figure?


[/ QUOTE ]

you are still drawing to the nuts, and you are asked to put in 1.015 BB. if calling is +EV, then raising is as well.
Monty Cantsin
08-21-2005, 04:19 AM
[ QUOTE ]
what if it was a full bet to u, do u call the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Alas, no. But at 860:1 I would have called with Jack high (Jack high!)... and won.

/mc
Monty Cantsin
08-21-2005, 11:06 AM
[ QUOTE ]
you dont cap PF for folding equity, you do it for value

[/ QUOTE ]

I meant I thought I would ultimately need to make a hand to win. But, yeah, it was weak.

/mc
partygirluk
08-21-2005, 11:12 AM
What did they have?
Monty Cantsin
08-21-2005, 12:22 PM
BB: 10/images/graemlins/diamond.gif7/images/graemlins/club.gif
CO: A/images/graemlins/heart.gif7/images/graemlins/spade.gif

Allright, so I wouldn't have won the whole thing with J-high, but I would have won that juicy 15 cent sidepot.

I think there are two main lessons here:

1. Outliers happen.
2. Stack management.

/mc