My Dilemma (Bankroll Related)

[x2ski]

After reading sthief09's post, Bankroll Theory and Taking Shots (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=3044308&page=&view=&sb=5& o=&fpart=all&vc=1) , I decided to take 200BB and give $5/$10 full a shot. I figured that if I lost those 200BB, I would move back down to $3/$6 and consider my stint at $5/$10 a learning experience.

My first 9,500 hands went just fine at 1.64BB/100 (a very acceptable winrate for me). So I now had 350BB or so to work with at this level (200BB to start + ~150BB won).

Then the downswing came.

I am currently down 248BB from my high at this level. This is over the course of about 14,000 hands. Technically, I still have about 100BB to work with here, but I'm just not sure if I should stick it out.

Sure, the downswing sucks balls, but I'm pretty darn sure it is just variance. I think I've had a worse downswing at $3/$6, but I don't know for certain. I do know that I have yet to expereince a 300BB downswing ever.

I would just hate to keep pissing money away although I feel pretty comfortable at $5/$10. Sure, the play is more aggressive, but it's still the same game of poker and there tend to be plenty of donks. I don't feel like I'm being outplayed... but maybe I'm just deluding myself.

FWIW, during this downswing PokerGrader has been giving me A's and B's (I would often get C's at $3/$6), and my luck factor has been consistently over -10, and as bad as -21 over 4,000+ daily hands. (That leaderboard is a bunch of crap... all these guys with bad luck factors over less than 500 hands... gimmee a friggin' break) Anyway, I don't know how much respect you guys give PokerGrader, but I find it somewhat comforting during times like this.

In addition, I utilized Joe Tall's coaching services right before making the jump up. I won't go into specifics, but it was nice to be told I wasn't doing very much wrong, and the errors I was making were easily eliminated.[/joetallplugwwwjoetallcom]

So here is my question: Should I keep on trucking with my remaining 100BBs? Should I move down once I lose 50 more BB (and thus hit -300BB)? How many of you would have moved down long ago?

I am currently at a little over 1,000BB for my bread and butter $3/$6, so I'm not worried about going bust, but since I play for a living, $2,000 needs to come out of that roll next week, which harshens my situation a bit more.

Thanks for your advice.

Ps. I read somewhere that one's standard deviation indicates their likelihood to experience severe downswings. Mine has always been around 12BB/100. Is this indicative of anything? Just curious.

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
I do know that I have yet to expereince a 300BB downswing ever.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're very fortunate. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

While taking this shot, have you been playing 5/10 exclusively, or are you still devoting at least part of your time to 3/6? I ask because the first thing that comes to mind for me is to hold the 100BB of 5/10 in reserve and go back to 3/6 for a while, to get your mojo working again and hopefully avoid any tilt-related issues. Then once the downswing ends and you feel like you've put it behind yourself, you can resume your 5/10 shot with the 100BB you have now. If you're still regularly playing 3/6 this seems like less of a "solution".

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
get your mojo working again

[/ QUOTE ]

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
PokerGrader has been giving me A's and B's

[/ QUOTE ]
What is this? I'm almost inclined to belive it's some sort of imaginary friend because it sounds pretty cool and I've never heard of it. If it isn't an imaginary friend, can you give me a link or something?

[DawnToDusk]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
PokerGrader has been giving me A's and B's

[/ QUOTE ]
What is this? I'm almost inclined to belive it's some sort of imaginary friend because it sounds pretty cool and I've never heard of it. If it isn't an imaginary friend, can you give me a link or something?

[/ QUOTE ]

Did a lil reserach myself when I heard of this. Here it is.

http://www.pokergrader.com/

[brazilio]

It is kind of goofy. pokergrader (http://www.pokergrader.com/)

[Trix]

Put the 100 BB aside, go back to 3/6, look through 5/10 hands, think about what went wrong, if anything.
Take another shot next time you feel like your are playing your A-game and the 5/10 tables look good.

[Perseus]

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It is kind of goofy.

[/ QUOTE ]

[pokergrader]

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It is kind of goofy.

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[x2ski]

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I do know that I have yet to expereince a 300BB downswing ever.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're very fortunate. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

While taking this shot, have you been playing 5/10 exclusively, or are you still devoting at least part of your time to 3/6?

[/ QUOTE ]

I jumped right in with all my clothes off and, downswing be damned, I don't regret it for a minute.

[oreogod]

lol. I ran my latest microlimit hands (doing a bankroll building project starting at .50/1.00)...anyway easy to tell its not my regular limit...preflop my raising to calling ratio is 1:1

Raising 12.5 calling 12.3. So while Im raising 12 percent of my hands down there (at full games anyway), I am calling 12 percent of the time to, effectivly bringing my over all agression way down preflop.

[x2ski]

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[ QUOTE ]

It is kind of goofy.

[/ QUOTE ]

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[/ QUOTE ]

I assume you don't really believe this.

I don't quite understand how it works, and you're FAQ page still tends to confuse me after my bagillionth time reading it.

Nevertheless, I appreciate your hard work, at the very least for the consoling properties PokerGrader has (after a tough session), regardless of whether or not the information provided is accurate.

[Evan]

I just graded one table of mine and I got an A. Has anyone used this thing a lot? Is it pretty accurate?

EDIT: btw, this thing would be a lot better if there was an easier way to put in multiple tables, just a thought.

[waffle]

[ QUOTE ]

EDIT: btw, this thing would be a lot better if there was an easier way to put in multiple tables, just a thought.


[/ QUOTE ]

have you tried using the pokergrader client? it's a program that runs on your computer and connects to your pokertracker DB - grabs a bunch of sessions and exports all the hands to one single .gz file that you upload on the pokergrader website

[x2ski]

[ QUOTE ]
I just graded one table of mine and I got an A. Has anyone used this thing a lot? Is it pretty accurate?

EDIT: btw, this thing would be a lot better if there was an easier way to put in multiple tables, just a thought.

[/ QUOTE ]

I use it a lot ('cause I suck and need external reinforcement) and it does what I want it to do lol.

As far as multiple tables are concerned, you can import up to 10,000 hands if you use the PokerGrader Client. The link is within the green box on the home page.

[Evan]

Nope, just downloaded it. Thanks.

[x2ski]

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Nope, just downloaded it. Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would appreciate a candid review from you after your evaluation. Like I said, I use it a lot, and have always been kinda surprised that it isn't mentioned more often on these forums.

Thanks.

[waffle]

don't mean to hijack, but let me ask you a question pgc -

as far as i understand, the 'profit graph' is a graph of my actual results

and the 'potential profit graph' is a graph of my estimated EV - that is, how much money i would make or lose with my play in the long run.

if my potential profit graph is positive, i'm playing with an edge, if it's negative, i'm bleeding chips.

is this correct?

[Evan]

I don't really know what to say about it. I just uploaded a 4400 hand sample and it gave me an A. I think I play pretty well so I guess I'm inclined to agree.

I uploaded hands from 5/10 to 15/30 and it listed the BB as $20, I don't know if that matters, but I figured I'd point it out.

For the most part I don't "know" what good numbers are for the stats it grades, but it seems like it does a very good job for what it is.

Here (http://www.pokergrader.com/display.php?a=9790910&p=1) is a link to my report card, if anyone wants to look.

EDIT: All the hands in my sample are from shorthanded games: 5/10 6m, 10/20 6m and 15/30 games that were playing shorthanded (maybe 70 or so hands were from full tables).

[x2ski]

[ QUOTE ]
Here (http://www.pokergrader.com/display.php?a=9790910&p=1) is a link to my report card, if anyone wants to look.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now I'm really depressed.

Nice, dude /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[Evan]

I just realized that I completely hijacked this thread with questions about PokerGrader. Sorry about that.

Re: your orignial question I would move back down. I'm not a fan of taking shots when I'm not feeling my best. Poker is so much a mental game, not just in execution of strategy, but its about your confidence. If you're not feeling your very best than put the moving up on hold for a bit.

[pokergrader]

Just as a note:

Everything on the first page (the stats page), including potential profit, individual luck factors and technical stats, are what I would deem 99% accurate. The reason these are so accurate is they are just numbers calculated from your cards and the actual cards, nothing arbitrary about them.

Where my judgement comes in, ie the "overall luck" factor for the leaderboard (still mostly numbers since it is a combination of the 4 indivudual stats, but still loses a little accuracy because of this), and the report card checks or Xs, are where it can get a little sketchy. I dont want people to base their lives on the report card page of PokerGrader. Just like it would be hard for you to grade your friends poker ability, it is that much harder for me to write a program to do it.

That being said, if you want to base your emotions on the individual luck stats or potential profit, I can live with that. Since that is all math with none of my judgement, if your luck was bad luck, it was bad luck. If your potential profit is negative, then it was negative. It still doesn't mean you were playing badly, but it is a pretty accurate guide that you weren't.

[x2ski]

[ QUOTE ]
I just realized that I completely hijacked this thread with questions about PokerGrader. Sorry about that.

Re: your orignial question I would move back down. I'm not a fan of taking shots when I'm not feeling my best. Poker is so much a mental game, not just in execution of strategy, but its about your confidence. If you're not feeling your very best than put the moving up on hold for a bit.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am feeling like I wanna throw up, but my confidence is only shaken, not stirred. That is why I ask.

I feel this game is definitely beatable, and that this is merely a downswing presenting itself at an inopportune time. I don't want to move down, but if many of you feel it is for the best, I will submit.

I just feel that since 300BB downswings are so rare, that there is a 99.9% chance that tomorrow will be a better day (4,000+ hands worth).

I mean, this is 23,450 hands where I'm down almost 100BBs overall. The worst losing/break-even streak I've had over almost 500,000 hands is 28,000 of them (on multiple occasions). I would hate to come out of this streak at $3/$6. That thought alone makes me wanna barf all over the place. But if it must be, it must be [sigh].

[x2ski]

[ QUOTE ]
Just as a note:

Everything on the first page (the stats page), including potential profit, individual luck factors and technical stats, are what I would deem 99% accurate. The reason these are so accurate is they are just numbers calculated from your cards and the actual cards, nothing arbitrary about them.

Where my judgement comes in, ie the "overall luck" factor for the leaderboard (still mostly numbers since it is a combination of the 4 indivudual stats, but still loses a little accuracy because of this), and the report card checks or Xs, are where it can get a little sketchy. I dont want people to base their lives on the report card page of PokerGrader. Just like it would be hard for you to grade your friends poker ability, it is that much harder for me to write a program to do it.

That being said, if you want to base your emotions on the individual luck stats or potential profit, I can live with that. Since that is all math with none of my judgement, if your luck was bad luck, it was bad luck. If your potential profit is negative, then it was negative. It still doesn't mean you were playing badly, but it is a pretty accurate guide that you weren't.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good to know. Thanks man.

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]

I am feeling like I wanna throw up, but my confidence is only shaken, not stirred. That is why I ask.

[/ QUOTE ]
I just don't think you're in your best state of mind right now, and you should be when you're moving to a new, bigger game.

[ QUOTE ]

I feel this game is definitely beatable, and that this is merely a downswing presenting itself at an inopportune time.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree. part of playing poker, especially playing for a living, is manging things that present themselves at inopportune times. IMO the best way to do that is to move back down to your bread and butter game for now.

[ QUOTE ]
I just feel that since 300BB downswings are so rare, that there is a 99.9% chance that tomorrow will be a better day

[/ QUOTE ]
Oh boy, I have two problems with that one.

First of all, 300 BB down swings aren't as rare as a lot of people around here seem to thing. In May I had a 440 BB downswing, a friend of mine (who posts here and is generally considered one of the best players on the forum) is in a 400+ BB dowswing, it happens.

Second, the fact that you've lost X BB in the last Y hands makes it no more or less likely that you'll win money tomorrow, c'mon.

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
Here (http://www.pokergrader.com/display.php?a=9790910&p=1) is a link to my report card, if anyone wants to look.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would love to see the HH from that hand where you flopped quad kings. Tough to win that much money on that kind of flop.

[x2ski]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I just feel that since 300BB downswings are so rare, that there is a 99.9% chance that tomorrow will be a better day

[/ QUOTE ]
Oh boy, I have two problems with that one.

First of all, 300 BB down swings aren't as rare as a lot of people around here seem to thing. In May I had a 440 BB downswing, a friend of mine (who posts here and is generally considered one of the best players on the forum) is in a 400+ BB dowswing, it happens.

Second, the fact that you've lost X BB in the last Y hands makes it no more or less likely that you'll win money tomorrow, c'mon.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't get me wrong, I'm not going to win tomorrow no matter what it takes... I'm way too risk-averse to be that stupid, regardless of my psychological circumstance.

I'm just saying that when going through such variance, it makes sense to anticipate "a better session tomorrow", as opposed to dreading the next day. Whether or not it is mathematically correct to think this way, it is at least somewhat motivating, don'tcha think?

[oreogod]

Just curious, over how many hands was your downswing?

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]

I would love to see the HH from that hand where you flopped quad kings. Tough to win that much money on that kind of flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the dollar amount is deceptive because it was a 15/30 hand.


Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (4 BB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (6 BB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, SB calls.

Final Pot: 14 BB

SB had A9, I missed bets. :/

[Evan]

Peak to valley was probably in the 12k hand range.

[Evan]

I understand what you're saying. What I'm saying is that when your mindset is bordering on an emotional one, as yours is given what you're saying, I don't think that's the time to be putting yourself to a more difficult mental test than you're used to.

Just my $.02.

[Jeff W]

Raise flop in that KKKK hand.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
PokerGrader has been giving me A's and B's

[/ QUOTE ]
What is this? I'm almost inclined to belive it's some sort of imaginary friend because it sounds pretty cool and I've never heard of it. If it isn't an imaginary friend, can you give me a link or something?

[/ QUOTE ]


pokergrader told me I'm a -4.5 bb/100 player I think. but that was 6-max and I don't knwo if it adjusts

[sthief09]

I had a 450 bb one

[Evan]

All but maybe 100 of my hands were 6 max and it seemed to work right. Maybe you are a -4.5 BB/100 player, have you considered that?

[Evan]

I know, I really should have.

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
I had a 450 bb one

[/ QUOTE ]
But my EV isn't -4.5 BB/100.

[Nick C]

Off topic, but . . .

I now have to avert my eyes at first and then put my hand over the left-hand part of the screen whenever I read one of your posts (until I can scroll past your avatar, which is sometimes possible before I'm done reading).

I'd imagine you're stuck with that avatar for the time being, for some reason, though.

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
Off topic, but . . .

I now have to avert my eyes at first and then put my hand over the left-hand part of the screen whenever I read one of your posts (until I can scroll past your avatar, which is sometimes possible before I'm done reading).

I'd imagine you're stuck with that avatar for the time being, for some reason, though.

[/ QUOTE ]
Get Firefox, right click the avatar, "block images...."

[brettbrettr]

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Get Firefox, right click the avatar, "block images...."

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My [censored] Hero.

[brettbrettr]

According to this over 4k hands your turn and river bluffs are 100% effective?

Here's my link. (http://www.pokergrader.com/display.php?a=18367164&amp;p=1)

Apparently my bluffs are not good.

[ebranig]

[ QUOTE ]
The worst losing/break-even streak I've had over almost 500,000 hands is 28,000 of them (on multiple occasions). I would hate to come out of this streak at $3/$6. That thought alone makes me wanna barf all over the place. But if it must be, it must be [sigh].

[/ QUOTE ]

After 500,000 hands I think your "poker" is ready to play 5/10. Here are two factors to consider though: psychological state (do you feel confident in your play or are you second-guessing a lot?). BR variance (are you worried that you could go bust easily?). If you answer yes to either question then let your self-esteem take a blow and move down. Otherwise, welcome to 5/10.

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]

According to this over 4k hands your turn and river bluffs are 100% effective?

[/ QUOTE ]

Evidently. I'd show you the hands if I knew which ones they were, but I don't. I don't do a whole lot of bluffing on the later streets because the games I play in just aren't very conduscive to it.

[x2ski]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The worst losing/break-even streak I've had over almost 500,000 hands is 28,000 of them (on multiple occasions). I would hate to come out of this streak at $3/$6. That thought alone makes me wanna barf all over the place. But if it must be, it must be [sigh].

[/ QUOTE ]

After 500,000 hands I think your "poker" is ready to play 5/10. Here are two factors to consider though: psychological state (do you feel confident in your play or are you second-guessing a lot?). BR variance (are you worried that you could go bust easily?). If you answer yes to either question then let your self-esteem take a blow and move down. Otherwise, welcome to 5/10.

[/ QUOTE ]

Welcome? I'm already there, man. I just don't know if this is the brutal downswing that is expected after playing so many hands or what? If so, my monthly nut probably requests that I drop down. Also if so, I should probably keep going at this level since I am most likely way close to crawling out of this swing and relapsing back to where I hopefully should be.

Nobody's answered the question about my standard deviation (12BB/100)... is this a non-issue?

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
I should probably keep going at this level since I am most likely way close to crawling out of this swing

[/ QUOTE ]
I just want to reiterate that this type of thinking is dangerous on a lot of levels.

[ebranig]

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Also if so, I should probably keep going at this level since I am most likely way close to crawling out of this swing and relapsing back to where I hopefully should be.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not a great way of thinking of it.

[ QUOTE ]
Nobody's answered the question about my standard deviation (12BB/100)... is this a non-issue?

[/ QUOTE ]

Mine's 11.6, i'm pretty sure this is standard, a non-issue.

[ QUOTE ]
Welcome, I'm already there, man.

[/ QUOTE ]

Welcome for good is what I meant.

[x2ski]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I should probably keep going at this level since I am most likely way close to crawling out of this swing

[/ QUOTE ]
I just want to reiterate that this type of thinking is dangerous on a lot of levels.

[/ QUOTE ]

Quit harsing my gig.

I'll probably think otherwise tomrrow /images/graemlins/cool.gif

Ps. Packers suck

Good night

- X

[bobbyi]

None of this has anything to do with math or statistics or how you have done in the game in the past. The way you played in the past isn't representative of how you'll play in the future anyway because you have learned more and adjusted to the game more since then. What matters is whether whether your honest assessment of the opponents at this level is that they are bad enough relative to you that you have positive expectation sitting in the game. If so, you should stay. If you can't honestly make that assessment, you should go back to a lower limit for a while.

[Wacken]

I also just had a pretty large downswing, i noticed it does effect the way i play.
Not really that it tilts me, but i am too worried about the results to be fully concetrated at the game.

If something like that could be the case for you as well, i think you better step down to 3/6

[Wacken]

The potential profit graph is what i always wonder about its accuracy most.

In the first place i am amazed to see this graph, if you could calculate the EV from every hand with reasonable accuracy, you could also let your programm play winning poker right ?

And how does the potential profit graph process your bluffs?

[colgin]

Drop down to $3/6 for a little while an rebuild your confidence and bankroll. This should not take very long. Then next time you take a shot make it $5/10 6-max. (You may want to play at least a few hands at $3/6 6-max to get acclimated.)

I think your edge at the 6-max will be greater than the full. As you start winning the $5/10 6-max games and see your BR grow nicely, start throwing in some $5/10 full just so you stay on top of your full game and see the differences in how they play. Since by then your BR shopuld be pretty robust you won't have so much worry over a bad downswing. I would tend to focus on $5/10 6-max over full just because everyone petty much agrees that thos egames are more profitable (and important to learn how to beat as you move up). But unlike others I think you should continue to play at least some $5/10 full as it will help you on your road to the bigger full limits such as $15/30 (which FWIW is my goal).

[oreogod]

luck factor of -17.45 for tonight.

what a lame [censored] game.

[toss]

-13.97 luck factor for my last 5k hands at Party 5/10.

Does this mean this program can determine whos the biggest luckbox at this forum?

[x2ski]

[ QUOTE ]
Drop down to $3/6 for a little while an rebuild your confidence and bankroll. This should not take very long. Then next time you take a shot make it $5/10 6-max. (You may want to play at least a few hands at $3/6 6-max to get acclimated.)

I think your edge at the 6-max will be greater than the full. As you start winning the $5/10 6-max games and see your BR grow nicely, start throwing in some $5/10 full just so you stay on top of your full game and see the differences in how they play. Since by then your BR shopuld be pretty robust you won't have so much worry over a bad downswing. I would tend to focus on $5/10 6-max over full just because everyone petty much agrees that thos egames are more profitable (and important to learn how to beat as you move up). But unlike others I think you should continue to play at least some $5/10 full as it will help you on your road to the bigger full limits such as $15/30 (which FWIW is my goal).

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this idea, although I currently despise 6-max (I've taken a beating in my past attempts at learning 6-max at $1/$2).

I guess the general consensus is for me to move down anyway.

Anyone have that link by that guy that came up with that pre-flop chart for 6-max?

Thanks.

[nervous]

6max Preflop chart (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Number=1897985&amp;page=1&amp;view=expan ded&amp;sb=5&amp;o=14&amp;fpart=)

I advise that you learn to play shorthanded. Blah blah blah I'm sure you've heard the lines, "Learn to play shorthanded if you want to become a great limit player." I don't know how true this is yet, but playing shorthanded I think is more fun. You seem to be a good player and I'm sure you will pick it up very quickly.

I've heard that the 5/10 full is only good at peak times, so I can't think that playing 4,000 hands/day can be that great. You are probably going up against some pretty tight competition for the most part. I have only played about 1k hands of 5/10 full, so I am just assuming on that part.

I really think that your best idea would be to play a few thousand hands at 1/2 6max to get a feel for it, then move to the 3/6 6max. I think that it will be more fun, the swings will probably be about the same (money-wise), and your hourly rate will be better. Plus, you will build some great postflop skills while doing it. After that, from my experience the 5/10 6max isn't too far off from the 3/6 6max. 5/10 full verses short is about 50 hands/hour to 95 hands/hr and I think that it would be much easier to get a 2bb/100 winrate at 5/10 6max than 5/10 full. It will just take a little more studying for what will be a much better payoff.

Anyway, goodluck with whichever plan you wish to do.

[x2ski]

Thanks man.

[blatz]

Just to add, after being inspired by some longtime posters, I've been taking a much delayed trip up the limits. I had been leanng towards the "I'm making enough money without challenge or risk so why shake it" camp for too long. But as I do play for a living, I was scared to rough up my cushie life style, even though I knew i should.

The method that has been working for me is during a session where I feel I am playing very well, and am getting cards and feeling good, I shut down, move up to the next limit, and play just 2 tables. It's like slow motion, I have all my confidence, and playing off freshly earned money, makes me not sweat the limit.

The people who were mentioning confidence are absolutely right. As I played higher just 2-3 times a week for a few weeks, instead of all at once, my sissy side didn't hardly have a chance to complain. I feel like now, no matter what limit I am playing, I will take weekly shots at the next higher level.

So as you know...regroup, feel good, repeat.

(And thanks to the posters in other threads who told there stories and got me off my lazy butt)

[goodguy_1]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not a fan of taking shots when I'm not feeling my best. Poker is so much a mental game, not just in execution of strategy, but its about your confidence. If you're not feeling your very best than put the moving up on hold for a bit.


[/ QUOTE ]
you're going to have only $4,000 for your total bankroll after taking $2K out and you consider yourself a professional.. come on man no way you should be playing $5-10 especailly if you are struggling. Step back down to games where you can make a quick $10K over a month or two then give it a second try.

You are showing reckless abandon by playing a game where you are struggling with only 400BB bankroll.. and you should know this already if you play for a living.

There is one game that is optimal for your current bankroll at all times ..for you right now with a very limited bankroll in general $5-10 Full is not that game.

edit I dont mean to be harsh..you should focus on learning how to play 6MAX and 5MAX there is more money in it and you will become a much better plyer for it down the road. You can make more playing $2-4 6MAX short than you can $3-6 Full if you develop your skills. From that I would focus on playing a mix of Full and 6MAX games if you must but 6MAX eventhu volatile if you master you will make more money-master is too demanding a term..just get decent and you'll make 2.00bb/100 min. at $2-4 and $3-6....bottomline is if you can 4-table or more decently at 6MAX Full tables will cost you money.My hourly earn is higher in all my limit holdem games playing short vs.full.

The one overiding factor is Full tables are easier to multi-table and you have to develop the ability to do this at 6MAX...so when multitabling short games you need to be aware of yourself more ie by that I mean tilting image etc.

Another option is playing NLHE 6MAX these games are very good.If you ever run really bad NLHE 6MAX tables are the best games .I just did a summarization of my coefficient of variation for all the games I play..for me the easiest games to play weighing hourly earn visavis hourly standard deviation are NLHE 6MAX games..

find your nitche/s and make money and then move up at your own pace..

If you decide to stick to Full go back and grind very good $2-4 games and $3-6 games-you pay less in rake at $2-4. If you decide to venture on the 6MAX path start at $2-4 6MAX/5MAX move up to $3-6 6MAX and then $5-10 6MAX. The $5-10 6MAX games are way easier than the Full games and you variance per 100 hands at $5-10 6MAX vs $5-10 Full will only be a difference of about $20 per 100 hands ie $150 vs.$130 ..

There is more action in 6MAX games. At Party right now $3-6 and $5-10 Full in general are overpopulated by rakeback players-these guys dont want to play short..yes there are alot of rakeback 6MAX'ers but much less so than the full game populace.

Think of it this way also if you ever want to play above $30-60 LHE online all the games are pretty much short..so you are just working on a skill that you must have eventually have if you want to play higher.

[sfer]

Give yourself a week before you play 5/10, and before you play it again check your hands and see if you still think you were playing well and not getting outplayed. The week should be long enough to divorce yourself from the actually events and whatever emotional commitment you had to the play of the hands.

If you think you can beat the game, I would just go back and sit at the best tables between 3/6 and 5/10. Pick good games and don't confine yourself to a limit.

[nervous]

[ QUOTE ]
If you think you can beat the game, I would just go back and sit at the best tables between 3/6 and 5/10. Pick good games and don't confine yourself to a limit.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a good point that hadn't been brought up yet. Definately definately give yourself great table selection at 5/10 full since it's notorious for being rockish.

I have a question. In "# of times you hit the best possible card..." section, the hand you had 6's... why did you stay until the river? 88 bucks pot. Someone should have bet on the flop or the turn... Just curious...

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
I have a question. In "# of times you hit the best possible card..." section, the hand you had 6's... why did you stay until the river? 88 bucks pot. Someone should have bet on the flop or the turn... Just curious...


[/ QUOTE ]

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (5 SB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (3.50 BB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: (3.50 BB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB folds.

Final Pot: 6.50 BB

Thanks for the reply.

[TimM]

[ QUOTE ]
I am currently down 248BB from my high at this level.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
since I play for a living, $2,000 needs to come out of that roll next week

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Ps. I read somewhere that one's standard deviation indicates their likelihood to experience severe downswings. Mine has always been around 12BB/100. Is this indicative of anything? Just curious.

[/ QUOTE ]

Mine is usually around 13BB/100. I think we have similar stats, and it may be due to our relatively low VPIP's. Low SD's make big downswings less likely, while low win rates make them more likely. A low SD combined with a big downswing does not bode well.

I think this would be a good time to step back and re-evaluate. If my experience going from 5/10 full to 10/20 full and back is any guide, you may find the 3/6 now feels a lot easier.

Do you always take out exactly 2K/mo for living expenses? Plus rakeback?

[goodguy_1]

[ QUOTE ]
You are showing reckless abandon by playing a game where you are struggling with only 400BB bankroll.. and you should know this already if you play for a living.

There is one game that is optimal for your current bankroll at all times ..for you right now with a very limited bankroll in general $5-10 Full is not that game.

[/ QUOTE ]

[spydog]

[ QUOTE ]

If you think you can beat the game, I would just go back and sit at the best tables between 3/6 and 5/10. Pick good games and don't confine yourself to a limit.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is very good advice. It amazes me that most people on this board make a 'clean' jump from one limit to the next. If you have a 1000 BB roll for 3/6, then just add 1 or 2 5/10 tables to your mix, assuming that you play 4+ tables at a time. As your bankroll grows, replace the 3/6 tables with 5/10 tables until you are playing exclusively at 5/10. Then, add a 10/20 table to the mix. Rinse...repeat....make more money while never making a 'huge' jump.

[x2ski]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you always take out exactly 2K/mo for living expenses? Plus rakeback?

[/ QUOTE ]

I usually take out whatever keeps me with an $8,000-$9,000 bankroll at the end of the month... between $3,000 and $5,000 I guess, including rakeback.

[x2ski]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I am currently down 248BB from my high at this level.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
since I play for a living, $2,000 needs to come out of that roll next week

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Ps. I read somewhere that one's standard deviation indicates their likelihood to experience severe downswings. Mine has always been around 12BB/100. Is this indicative of anything? Just curious.

[/ QUOTE ]

A low SD combined with a big downswing does not bode well.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meaning what, huh?! Exactly what are you implying? That I teh suk?!

I already knew that. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[x2ski]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

If you think you can beat the game, I would just go back and sit at the best tables between 3/6 and 5/10. Pick good games and don't confine yourself to a limit.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is very good advice. It amazes me that most people on this board make a 'clean' jump from one limit to the next. If you have a 1000 BB roll for 3/6, then just add 1 or 2 5/10 tables to your mix, assuming that you play 4+ tables at a time. As your bankroll grows, replace the 3/6 tables with 5/10 tables until you are playing exclusively at 5/10. Then, add a 10/20 table to the mix. Rinse...repeat....make more money while never making a 'huge' jump.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I'll probably do this next time.