Turn: For Bettor, or worse?

[callmedonnie]

Reads: BB is 41/8/1.9 and UTG+1 is 23/0/.7

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ?

Do you take the free card? Remember, any diamond or ten looks to be 100% clean, and with 6 overs, even if you only count 3 that gives me 15 outs. Let me know.

[Dariel86]

I'm betting this for sure

[lwspoker69]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm betting this for sure

[/ QUOTE ]

[TemetNosce]

Bet the turn. If called and you don't improve on the river, check it down. That way you won't be bluffed off the pot by another missed draw.

[Redd]

I take the free card. BB's probably showing down, so your fold equity is very low. And I don't think UTG+1 has to fold to your bet very often to push this into -EV.

And with your relative position, you might be able to make up 2 bets on the river if BB leads again and you hit one of your more hidden outs, but pay zero when your draw doesn't hit.

[hobbsmann]

I like a bet here since it is still 3-handed and considering all of your outs a c/r really isn't going to bother you. Also, the times you get one of your opponents to fold by betting here you improve your chances of winning this hand UI on the river.

[Bodhi]

Bet. This is obvious, no?

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet. This is obvious, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand why this is obvious. For what reason are you betting?

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bet. This is obvious, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand why this is obvious. For what reason are you betting?

[/ QUOTE ]

The bet is not just a semibluff; it's also for value. Ignoring the fact that on 2/4 Party it's very possible that neither opponent has a better hand yet (lots of draws on that flop, and plenty of people there will take any ace to showdown), Hero probably has somewhere on the order of 15-16 good outs on the turn (9 flush outs, 3 more straight outs, and his A or K outs are good fairly often as well). With 2 opponents and Hero sitting on a draw that will come in more than 1 in 3 times, not betting would be bad.

[brettbrettr]

I think BB has a pair.

[ArturiusX]

I bet.

[ QUOTE ]
I think BB has a pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even if BB has a pair, hero has 9 outs to the nut flush...3 outs to the nut straight and possible outs to the A and K. I would assume we probably have 15-16 outs here...discounting the A and K outs a little. With 16 outs hero's draw comes in a little over 34% of the time. With two callers, this should be a marginally profitable bet. Combining the fact that hero can then check down the river for a potential win with A high, I definitely bet this turn. Also, consider you're wrong and instead of a pair the original better has a flush draw. Hero would love a checkraise on this river if a diamond does happen to come. By betting this turn you also gain deception and the posibility of additional bets on the river (think QT or JT here when the T hits).

Lozing

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bet. This is obvious, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand why this is obvious. For what reason are you betting?

[/ QUOTE ]

The bet is not just a semibluff; it's also for value. Ignoring the fact that on 2/4 Party it's very possible that neither opponent has a better hand yet (lots of draws on that flop, and plenty of people there will take any ace to showdown), Hero probably has somewhere on the order of 15-16 good outs on the turn (9 flush outs, 3 more straight outs, and his A or K outs are good fairly often as well). With 2 opponents and Hero sitting on a draw that will come in more than 1 in 3 times, not betting would be bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we give ourselves 15 outs, our draw is coming in 1 time in 3.1, correct? And if we give ourselves 16 outs, the draw comes in 1 time in 2.9. So there's a very slim amount of value, if we assume both Villains will always call. If one villain folds on the turn more than like 10% of the time, then we get pushed into -EV, n'est pas?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bet. This is obvious, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand why this is obvious. For what reason are you betting?

[/ QUOTE ]

The bet is not just a semibluff; it's also for value. Ignoring the fact that on 2/4 Party it's very possible that neither opponent has a better hand yet (lots of draws on that flop, and plenty of people there will take any ace to showdown), Hero probably has somewhere on the order of 15-16 good outs on the turn (9 flush outs, 3 more straight outs, and his A or K outs are good fairly often as well). With 2 opponents and Hero sitting on a draw that will come in more than 1 in 3 times, not betting would be bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we give ourselves 15 outs, our draw is coming in 1 time in 3.1, correct? And if we give ourselves 16 outs, the draw comes in 1 time in 2.9. So there's a very slim amount of value, if we assume both Villains will always call. If one villain folds on the turn more than like 10% of the time, then we get pushed into -EV, n'est pas?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, on the individual bet here, it is extremely tight on EV and will probably go to -EV if you already assume you are behind. Combining the fact that we might gain additional bets here on the river with the fact that there is a very slim chance that we still have the best hand, I'm betting this turn.

Lozing

I think BB could have a draw here as I think he would have checkraised the majority of his stronger hands here. UTG is passive, so he could have a pair but also a draw. I'm not 100% convinced that we don't still have the best hand here. Although, I'm pretty confident we're on a draw.

Lozing

[TemetNosce]

Don't discount those times when you bet the turn and one opponent folds and the other opponent is also drawing and you both miss on the river and you win with Ace-high.

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
I think BB could have a draw here as I think he would have checkraised the majority of his stronger hands here. UTG is passive, so he could have a pair but also a draw. I'm not 100% convinced that we don't still have the best hand here. Although, I'm pretty confident we're on a draw.

Lozing

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know what kind of donkey this donkey is but donkey's round here might bet into the PFR in hopes of claering the field.

Good point about Hero getting paid off on the end. In all, this is close. I thought check at first, now I'm thinking bet. C'est pas.

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
Combining the fact that we might gain additional bets here on the river

[/ QUOTE ]

The number of bets we make on the river (ie, our implied odds) would be an important factor when we were deciding to call a bet. But when deciding to value-bet we're now only concerned with the number of bets going in on the turn and our equity on the turn, n'est pas? Once we hit the river we'll have a new amount of equity which will determine whether we can value bet (which will be much easier incidentally, because we'll either have a monster or ace-high).

[ QUOTE ]

I don't know what kind of donkey this donkey is but donkey's round here might bet into the PFR in hopes of claering the field.


[/ QUOTE ]

If this player thinks at all then he is probably not trying to clear the field here. The other player is inbetween him and the PF raiser. To clear the field, he would have to try a checkraise. I would think he would try to three bet this flop with a very good hand or be on a draw. Of course, a lot of bad players only play their hand so he could be betting a pair.

Lozing

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Combining the fact that we might gain additional bets here on the river

[/ QUOTE ]

The number of bets we make on the river (ie, our implied odds) would be an important factor when we were deciding to call a bet. But when deciding to value-bet we're now only concerned with the number of bets going in on the turn and our equity on the turn, n'est pas? Once we hit the river we'll have a new amount of equity which will determine whether we can value bet (which will be much easier incidentally, because we'll either have a monster or ace-high).

[/ QUOTE ]

But if we check this turn here I think we lose our "implied odds". It would appear to the other players that we probably have a premium pair here given the way we would play it (by betting the turn). If we check, I believe our hand is completely given away and we lose any additional bets we could have gained on the river.

Lozing

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't discount those times when you bet the turn and one opponent folds and the other opponent is also drawing and you both miss on the river and you win with Ace-high.

[/ QUOTE ]

What percent of the time would you estimate that we're ahead of both Villains on the turn?

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Combining the fact that we might gain additional bets here on the river

[/ QUOTE ]

The number of bets we make on the river (ie, our implied odds) would be an important factor when we were deciding to call a bet. But when deciding to value-bet we're now only concerned with the number of bets going in on the turn and our equity on the turn, n'est pas? Once we hit the river we'll have a new amount of equity which will determine whether we can value bet (which will be much easier incidentally, because we'll either have a monster or ace-high).

[/ QUOTE ]

But if we check this turn here I think we lose our "implied odds". It would appear to the other players that we probably have a premium pair here given the way we would play it (by betting the turn). If we check, I believe our hand is completely given away and we lose any additional bets we could have gained on the river.

Lozing

[/ QUOTE ]

Like I said, I don't think this is really relvant to the amount of value we get on the turn. But I think that the contrary would be true, that we would increase the likelihood that Villain(s) will pay off a river bet to look us up if we check the turn.

[quoteLike I said, I don't think this is really relvant to the amount of value we get on the turn. But I think that the contrary would be true, that we would increase the likelihood that Villain(s) will pay off a river bet to look us up if we check the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, this is completely irrelevent to the value on the turn but I believe it to be extremely important for the entire value of the hand.

Are you advocating a check on the turn and a bet on the river? Or am I misreading you?

Lozing

[Redd]

I'm advocating a check on the turn and a bet/raise on the river if we hit any of our outs. I wouldn't value-bet ace-high on the river, and I'm not very crazy about doing so on the turn.

Okay, just wanted to doublecheck. I highly doubted you were value betting Ace high here w/ two players in on the river.

[Harv72b]

There are a other factors to consider besides the value of a turn bet--I didn't mention them because I thought they were accepted as a given.

As I said, this is a semi-bluff, too--if we can get one or both opponents to fold better hands, or even hands that would become better with the river card (i.e., A7 when the river is a 7), that's a very good thing. If someone called the flop bet with A5 or KJ but will now release it, that's also good. So you have that to consider.

You also have the metagame. If Hero hits the river and shows down, some disgruntled wanna-be TAG is going to see that he bet the flop and turn with just ace high and decide to call down (or play back) with an underpair when Hero's holding QQ or AA the next time. This is especially true if that TAG-wannabe folds the best hand on the turn this time.

There's the potential that 1 player is on a weaker draw and will call a bet on the turn, but not call a bet on the river when Hero hits. And yes, disguising Hero's hand by betting the turn will yield additional river bets from time to time...for example, one of them is calling down with QT and spikes their 2 pair on the river--they are less likely to give Hero credit for the nut straight when he's been betting every street. If someone else rivers a straight with a hand like J9s, that's even better.

And of course, there's the free showdown potential. When Hero bricks the river he can just check through rather than worry about whether or not his opponent is trying to steal the pot with a busted draw when it goes bet, fold on the river.