Turn decision and OESD

[ebranig]

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(10 handed)</font> link (http://www.darksun.lunarpages.com/poker/)

Reads:
Button is a known TAG 2+2'er
utg+2 is 27.5/5.8/1.40. 31/50 showdowns.

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (6.00 SB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, Button calls, SB folds.

Turn: (5.00 BB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, MP2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero??

[toss]

4:1 with 8 outs. Theres a risk of your odds getting cut down further, but I think its low. You can probably make up the rest on the river, but then again your hand would be transparent after check/calling two on the turn.

[ebranig]

My 8 outs are to the mortal nuts and I have at least one of them on a set. I think i can make at least 2 bets on the river.

Any more thoughts?

[Perseus]

You still gotta call this. Draws are no fun sometimes...

...unless they hit on the river.

[Dan Rutter]

Fold. There is $80 in the pot and it costs you $20 to call. You are not getting the proper odds, and it may cost you even more if UTG+2 re-raises. If you were closing the action you could probably take a card off, hoping to pick up extra bets on the river if you hit. You may be able to pick up extra bets on the river in this case your in, but then you may still be putting more bets in without the right odds. Say you call, and UTG+2 raises and Button calls. Now you have put $30 in on the turn to win $100. Even worst odds.

[toss]

Lets say UTG 3-bets so Hero gets 3.667:1 instead. He can still often make up the bets on the river right?

[Catt]

[ QUOTE ]
My 8 outs are to the mortal nuts and I have at least one of them on a set. I think i can make at least 2 bets on the river.

Any more thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see how you can narrow this to one of them holding a set. It is perfectly plausible that UTG holds a weak top pair or even second pair and button holds TP mediocre kicker that he called on the flop in order to see the turn. UTG's stats don't strike me as those of a player who is likely to 3-bet the turn without a serious hand, so you might get through the turn putting in two, but a specific post-flop read would be very helpful in making the decision.

I also think you're overestimating your chances of picking up at least 2 bets on the river though I agree it is reasonably likely. If a 7 or a Q falls and you lead, I think it unlikely you get raised or get two calls; you may get one of them to pay off a C/R but also risk having it checked through if button was raising with the intention of taking a free showdown.

But, if you really believe it is easy to make up two bets on the river, and you really believe one of them has a set (?), and the risk of a three-bet from UTG seems low enough, then it seems an easy call.

[Dan Rutter]

Whats hero's plan on the river? Bet out, and pick up one or two calls, someone with a set there may not raise. Now assume that you called on 4th. UTG+2 re-raises, Button calls you call. You have put in $30 to win $100. Now you hit and bet out, and pick up one call. $30 to win $110. Or $30 to win $120. Neither good enough pot odds for an 8-outer with one card to come. Sure sometimes you will be re-raised with a set, and get a 3-bet in. So that needs to be equated for.

Question: does the $10 bet you put in on the river count towards the amount you risk compared to what you win. So $40 for $110 . Or would it be $30 for $110 as above, since your $10 river bet will be with the nuts, and you are not risking that bet?

Or, go for a checkraise neither has a set and it gets checked around. They will have a set sometimes, and you will pick up the extra bets those times. Between $110(one bets other folds, does not call your raise) to $140(one bets other calls, both call your raise) for $30. In the later case you are getting the extra bets, but it is very marginal. You pretty much need that situation to occur for this to be a good play, and I do not think it will happen often.

Also you will not always be 3-bet on the turn, so you have to figure that in. But if he is putting one of them on a set he will very likely be 3 bet.

[hobbsmann]

Does anybody else not like the flop bet in this hand? I really feel you aren't accomplishing much betting into a field of 6.

As for the turn I'd lean towards folding here, but I think it's pretty close either way.