Kill me

[brazilio]

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP3 calls, Button calls, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (16 SB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls, Button calls, SB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (10.50 BB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls, Button folds, SB calls, UTG+1 folds.

River: (13.50 BB) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, SB calls, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 18.50 BB

MP3 is a fish, VP$IP of 50, pfr 2.68, aggression of .62 after 112. SB is a relative unknown, but super LPP after 12 hands. Tell me this is retarded and then castrate me.

[Harv72b]

This is retarded. Please report to your nearest animal shelter for neutering. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

I can see why you'd want to fold--MP3 being as loose/passive as he is could very well have the deuce. But, man...18.5:1 and holding an overpair? I think even the fish might decide that it's finally safe to raise with his AT here 6% of the time.

[Moozh]

I don't get it. You're saying he has a 2 95% of the time here?

[Jake (The Snake)]

I'll leave the castration to you, but yeah, I am absolutely calling that raise.

.62 isn't that passive for somebody who plays 50% of his hands. Still passive, but you defenetely can't assume he won't bluff. This is going to be a ridiculous bluff way more often than it needs to be for you to call.

[toss]

I'd also like the point out that a 50/2.68/.62 is more aggressive than a 15/2.68/.62. I don't know by how big a factor though.

[brazilio]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd also like the point out that a 50/2.68/.62 is more aggressive than a 15/2.68/.62. I don't know by how big a factor though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know it's more aggressive by a small margin, but I don't think it even doubles statistically. I thought about this same question previously when I had 80+ VP$IP opponents with a dubious pfa, not trying to defend my fold at all.

[jskills]

I'm not good enough to fold for one bet on the river with an overpair as you did there.