Flopped my set, but....

[BTAL]

I'm playing 4/8, table is loose/passive for last couple hours. I've been trying to build myself up as aggressive and maybe a little too loose by value betting every chance I get.

I'm dealt QQ in the CO. UTG open-raises, EP coldcalls, folds to MP who coldcalls. Everybody folds to me and I 3-bet. BB coldcalls, UTG calls, EP calls, MP calls. Five to the flop.

Flop comes Q /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 9 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 2 /forums/images/icons/club.gif

BB checks, UTG bets, EP folds, MP calls, I raise. UTG and MP both call. Three to the turn.

Turn comes (Q /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 9 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 2 /forums/images/icons/club.gif ) J /forums/images/icons/heart.gif

UTG checks, MP checks, I bet. UTG folds and MP checkraises!!! Here I'm thinking pocket jacks or AQ??? Maybe AJd??? This checkraise combined with his flop play really has me confused though. KT maybe, but the raise preflop...?? He could've flopped his set maybe? A little confused and unsure (never a good place to be), I call. Looking back, I'm thinking I should have 3-bet to get a better read on his hand. I'm just really hoping to pair up the river here just so I can feel a bit safer.

River comes (Q /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 9 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 2 /forums/images/icons/club.gif J /forums/images/icons/heart.gif ) 4 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif

My opponent bets out and I call. He turns over T8d (!!!) and I muck my Queens. His play on this hand just had me totally confused and offbalance. Did I simply go about this hand completely wrong???

[Homer]

I would three-bet the turn every time. There's no way your opponent puts you on top set (after all you raised the flop!). He could have AQ, QJ, 99, JJ, 22, QT, JT, a pair + two diamonds, etc. All that beats you is T8 and KT. Would he coldcall preflop with either of these hands?

If you are four-bet, call and call a bet on the river (unless you fill, then raise of course).

-- Homer

[Nottom]

Aside from the loose raise-calling standards pre-flop, which is a common enough problem that it shouldn't really surprise you, I don't see anything wrong with his play. I think you probably played this hand ok.

[Rich P.]

Something could be said for either calling or raising on the turn. You must recognize that there are people who will call any sized raise before the flop if they have any type of calling hand at all. You must identify these players as soon a possible. You know them when they are sitting to your immediate left; a raise will never buy the button from them.

Now the straight is staring you right in the face. You really can't fold, because you are getting the odds to draw to a boat. It's really hard to fold on the river given the size of the pot. Your play, therefore was good, except for the call on the river which was only a small mistake.

[RockLobster]

I would three-bet the turn every time.

Wrong. Didn't you read the results? He clearly saved money by playing the way he did. I thought we agreed... it's all about the results (and berating fish is a good thing, and ...). /forums/images/icons/smirk.gif

On a serious note... you're right. 3-bet the turn, and play the river as fit... check / call if it's a diamond or other danger card, bombs away if the board pairs.

[RockLobster]

It's really hard to fold on the river given the size of the pot. Your play, therefore was good, except for the call on the river which was only a small mistake.

The river call was a mistake? I'd call exactly 100% of the time (As you can see, I'm trained to not say always or never).

[Homer]

Rich, folding on the river is a big mistake, imo. The checkraisor could easily have an underset, top-two, or be semi-bluffing with a flush draw.

-- Homer

[elysium]

hi bt
you must lose a lot here. it would have been wrong to reraise his check-raise, but not as wrong as playing it any other way than you did. played perfectly. the only real debatable issue is the river call; forget about it, played perfectly.

[Ed Miller]

I'm sorry, but I don't see what is so confusing about his play on this hand. He called when he didn't have a strong made hand and then checkraised you and bet when he did.

The only thing I would have done differently is 3-bet the turn. You are ahead of way too many hands that he could be checkraising you with not to 3-bet. If you get 4-bet, then I would call down (unless the board paired, obviously).

Looking back, I'm thinking I should have 3-bet to get a better read on his hand.

People are always saying things like this. It makes no sense to me. It is too late to "get a read"... you are playing with big bets now. You have to put him on a range of hands when he checkraises you, and then decide how good your hand looks in comparison. I personally think it looks good enough to 3-bet.

[Ed Miller]

I don't see anything wrong with his play.

I do... he flopped a gutshot straightflush draw and couldn't find a bet or raise on the flop.

[Rich P.]

The river call was a mistake, because he lost. I know that's a little harsh. I agree that he should call due to the size of the pot.

The turn call, of course, was correct because he was getting the odds to draw to a full house.

[Rich P.]

I disagree, although it is certainly debatable. The straight card fell and he checkraised our hero. It's pretty obvious what he's representing. He had played passively up until the turn. If he had top pair he would have bet. Two pair is a strong hand, but not necessarily strong enough to checkraise with especially after the strenght our hero had shown.

So, in reality, there are only three hands he could have checkraised with: two pair, a set, or a straight. Given his play, he probably would have thrown away an underpair on the flop considering the strenght of our hero's play, so a straight is the most likely hand he would hold on the turn.

I, however, would never argue with agressive play. Three betting the turn would have shown strenght, possibliy forcing our opponent to consider a K high straight. Still, this is probably not enough to cause him not to reraise. Our hero may end up paying a lot for a free showdown which he might not even get.

In sum, our hero read is opponent fairly accurately and, except for the river call, which he was probably obligated to call anyway, he played the hand correctly.

[Ulysses]

The river call was a mistake, because he lost. I know that's a little harsh. I agree that he should call due to the size of the pot.

What are you talking about? The river call was correct, period, because there are (about) 15BB in the pot and 3 Queens are definitely going to be good far more than 1 in 15 times given this action and board.

By this logic, raising with my AA pre-flop is a mistake, what, two out of the three times I do it? I need to readjust my strategy...

The turn call, of course, was correct because he was getting the odds to draw to a full house.

You sound similarly confused/confusing here. The turn call would be correct if he absolutely knew he was drawing against a made straight. I agree with the other posters who say 3-betting and then calling down after a 4-bet is the best move.

[Ulysses]

I disagree with much of your post, but here's what I disagree with the most:

Our hero may end up paying a lot for a free showdown which he might not even get.

Free showdown? If my opponent just calls my turn 3-bet in this situation and checks to me on the river with this board, I'll bet it just about every time.

[Ulysses]

I do... he flopped a gutshot straightflush draw and couldn't find a bet or raise on the flop.

In his opponent's situation, I probably would have called the initial flop bet, then 3-bet when it came back to me.

Would you have raised immediately?

[Ed Miller]

There is one thing that I think you are missing. When our hero 3-bets preflop, his opponent will probably be putting him on a range of hands that looks something like AA-TT, AK-AQ. In other words, the checkraiser has no good reason at all to fear a straight... in fact, he has no good reason to fear any hand better than one pair. That makes it, in my opinion, quite likely that he would choose to checkraise with a two pair hand.

Also, you keep discussing folding the river as if it's a reasonable option. It is not. It's not even close.

[Ed Miller]

I would probably have called the flop, hoping that the raiser would raise so that I could 3-bet. If you think UTG could be betting a hand worse than a Q, however, then there is value to raising immediately. This is designed to get AK or JJ to fold to give you a chance to win just by pairing up.

[bernie]

much easier to play if you 3 bet the turn here. you have top set. if he caps, he has better than a set. sure, some players will cap with a lesser set, but many will slowdown.
this is highly player dependent.

putting a blank face on a player and calling the river everytime, even if you know exactly what he has is, well, wrong. why even watch how opponents play previous hands then if youre going to regress to playing this player as if he's an unknown player that just joined the game? bigger bets are more predictable than the smaller streets. if you know this players 3 or 4 bet standards. or his turn c/r standards. he may not c/r the turn with a set but will only do it with the nuts. if he's that readable, and some are, you can then call and fold the river if you miss. and yes, there are players who are this predictable. but far more arent.

which is why id have 3 bet. youre answering a strong move, {and many weak players consider a c/r very strong so consider that when they do it. they love killing their action with it just happy that they won the pot}, by reraising a c/r. if he caps, he very likely has you beat at this time. unless he's shown he will play a lesser hand this way. even with some top sets if it isnt the nuts, players wont cap here. you have the extra bet behind you to use for info. and when he caps, usually you have all you need to plan ahead for the river. some players teh c/r is enough to tell you youre beat.

THEN, if your read is strong, if you miss the river, you fold. there comes a time when your read outweighs the damn pot size. ive seen some atrocious calls by players who are obviously beaten, they know theyre beat, but get enamored with the pot. almost as if their eyes glaze over.

ever seen the movie 'the man with 2 brains' with steve martin. there's a scene where he's talking to a painting of his wife asking if he should do something. saying all's he needs is a sign. the picture is spinning, fireworks going off, lights flashing, a moaning voice saying 'nooo'. and his reaction is a deadpan, 'just any sign. that's all i need...' he still asks.

kind of like the joke about the gal in a flood on top of her house. saying god will save her. he only need to give her a sign. she dies and asks god why he didnt give her any signs. he mentions the 3 rescue boats and the helicopter.

sorry, i wanted to exaggerate the point with those examples.

now...if youre unsure, obviously call. you have to have a good enough read to do this which includes familiarity with his play. and some players you dont need to play with that long to get the gist of their play.

not many players are going to cap the turn then bet out without the nuts with only this many players. those type of players tend to stand out in previous hands also as theyll overplay other hands.

but sometimes its as if the guy will turn his hand face up, but since the pot is big, some hit a switch and think maybe i do need that eye exam ive been meaning to get, and then call. after all, ive got a strong read, but it's just too obvious to have it.

richp brings up some very points. but some responses were no matter what at some point regardless of the strength of ones read, you ignore it and call anyway. this is a finer point that seperates the good players a little. and those calls when you know better add up.

im wondering what the opinions wouldve been, if the opponent was a player that played loose/passive preflop, but then very tight, especially with his aggression post flop. weak tight post flop. and this person caps the turn. of course this is an obvious example, but it doesnt have to be this obvious to consider.

cards isnt all just math. reads are part of the game too.

btw...since the hero was unsure, i agree with his river call. but that's not to say further in the session after some other info, confirming his bet range in certain spots that id agree with playing his hand this way again against this player.

just some ideas

b

[Ulysses]

Bernie,

I definitely agree that there are opponents who you can safely lay down to on the river with this board if they checkraise and 4-bet you on the turn, then bet out on the river. I've laid down similar hands a number of times. On the other hand, I play with a number of guys who would play 99 that way.

However, the way this went down, once hero just calls the turn checkraise, I think, in the words of my hero, the river is a mandatory. Boy. What a terribly written sentence that was. Yuck.