A tougher river for Jeff W [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

sfer

08-19-2005, 09:43 PM

10 handed Party 20/40.

CO posts a blind. 2 folds and I open 6h 6d UTG+2, folds to the CO who 3-bets. He is 24.6/13.5/1.68 over 15K hands so quite aggressive and is probably opening his hand range here because he knows I am. He WTSD is 35. Folds to me and I contemplate capping but just call. HU and 7.5 SBs.

Flop is 2s 7h Kd. I check, he bets, and I peel.

Turn is the 4s. Check/check.

River is the 9s. I bet for value.

Luv2DriveTT

08-19-2005, 09:58 PM

What is Jeff capable of 3-betting with? I would assume hands such as AK, AQs, middle pocket pairs and up, a reomte possibly of KQs. His turn check doesn't smell like he holds an K or a middle pocket pair... AQ is still possible, as well as any smaller pocket pair. Because the river is the third spade your bet is an insurance bet, not for value. I think if the Villain calls (and I don't expect him to that often) you are probably beat. Perhaps his goal was to induce you to bet the river? If so, he succeeded eh?

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

sfer

08-19-2005, 09:59 PM

Sorry, villain wasn't Jeff. He just wanted a tougher value bet situation than my last hand.

Luv2DriveTT

08-19-2005, 10:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, villain wasn't Jeff. He just wanted a tougher value bet situation than my last hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah, that does change the scenario a tiny bit, but it doesn't deviate that much from my post. Smells like he is calling any river bet with most of his possible holdings if there was no spade. With the spade hitting the river I think you just won the hand assuming he will now fold. Hence I don't think we can call the river a value bet but I love it none the less.

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

Jeff W

08-19-2005, 10:14 PM

Post a tough one next time. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

He usually has Ace high here. Sure, he may have an underplayed QQ-88, a flush draw that took a free card or a hand like QJ, but most of the time he has Ace high.

You are committed to put 1 bet in on the river and you will make more by value betting than by checking to induce a bluff.

sfer

08-21-2005, 11:30 PM

3 handed Party 20/40.

We've been playing 3-handed for about 10 orbits. I've raised maybe 6 out of the last 8 hands so, surprise surprise, I probably have a LAG image. The table was 10 handed but we are the leftovers. The Button had adjusted very poorly at first (folding too much, coldcalling a bit) but now seems to be getting the right mix preflop. SB is a flat out LAG and is making the game great. For those who don't like to play short, situations like this--which happen frequently late at night in B&M games and routinely at the Party 15 and bigger--should make you want to get very good at shorthanded play.

Anyway, Button raises, SB folds, I 3-bet in the BB with Ac Qh, Button caps, I call.

HU for 8.5 SBs. Flop is 8c 9h 3d. I check, button bets, I checkraise, button calls.

HU to the turn for 6.25 BBs. Turn is the Td. I bet, button calls.

River is the 3h and I bet for value.

Paxosmotic

08-22-2005, 12:40 AM

That is so [censored] marginal it makes my head spin.

Luv2DriveTT

08-22-2005, 12:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]
River is the 3h and I bet for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

I /images/graemlins/heart.gif U, this is why.

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

08-22-2005, 01:37 AM

I'm not sure what's going on, but I think CO will bet PP under K that beat you, so you'll have to call those anyhoo. Also, he may call w/ A-high.

Edit: Maybe if he knows who you are, then he knows you're capable of making bets without the best hand, so he'll call.

chief444

08-22-2005, 01:56 AM

Are there really enough no pair hands that call here to make it a good value bet? I can't imaging AK/AQ folding. AJ...3-handed...if you're seen as a LAG sure. Other no pair Ax hands...by "the right mix preflop" are these even in the capping range? Are you thinking K-high calls ever? Also, would you expect to get more action on the flop/turn from any pair?

The original hand you gave I like the bet. As TT said it could be something like QQ/JJ checking the turn after you call a K-high flop planning to call the river but those hands should and very likely would value bet the river if checked to again anyway and AQ/AJ very likely call.

Justin A

08-22-2005, 03:02 AM

I really don't see how this is all that marginal.

sfer

08-22-2005, 09:18 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Also, would you expect to get more action on the flop/turn from any pair?

[/ QUOTE ]

Bingo.

oreogod

08-22-2005, 09:58 AM

thejameser

08-22-2005, 10:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
10 handed Party 20/40.

CO posts a blind. 2 folds and I open 6h 6d UTG+2, folds to the CO who 3-bets. He is 24.6/13.5/1.68 over 15K hands so quite aggressive and is probably opening his hand range here because he knows I am. He WTSD is 35. Folds to me and I contemplate capping but just call. HU and 7.5 SBs.

Flop is 2s 7h Kd. I check, he bets, and I peel.

Turn is the 4s. Check/check.

River is the 9s. I bet for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I need to open up my raising standards a bit more preflop. I always limped or folded here. Intresting.

[/ QUOTE ]

understand why standards are opened up here.

oreogod

08-22-2005, 10:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
10 handed Party 20/40.

CO posts a blind. 2 folds and I open 6h 6d UTG+2, folds to the CO who 3-bets. He is 24.6/13.5/1.68 over 15K hands so quite aggressive and is probably opening his hand range here because he knows I am. He WTSD is 35. Folds to me and I contemplate capping but just call. HU and 7.5 SBs.

Flop is 2s 7h Kd. I check, he bets, and I peel.

Turn is the 4s. Check/check.

River is the 9s. I bet for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I need to open up my raising standards a bit more preflop. I always limped or folded here. Intresting.

[/ QUOTE ]

understand why standards are opened up here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meaning? Unless I missed it (I am tired), there wasnt much of a read on the table. Unless u are just being philosophically vague. U can always explain though.

thesharpie

08-22-2005, 10:21 AM

The poster's dead money methinks.

oreogod

08-22-2005, 10:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The poster's dead money methinks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well was that my first thought before I posted, but I didnt know if he was impling the posters dough or something else.

thejameser

08-22-2005, 10:25 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
10 handed Party 20/40.

CO posts a blind. 2 folds and I open 6h 6d UTG+2, folds to the CO who 3-bets. He is 24.6/13.5/1.68 over 15K hands so quite aggressive and is probably opening his hand range here because he knows I am . He WTSD is 35. Folds to me and I contemplate capping but just call. HU and 7.5 SBs.

Flop is 2s 7h Kd. I check, he bets, and I peel.

Turn is the 4s. Check/check.

River is the 9s. I bet for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I need to open up my raising standards a bit more preflop. I always limped or folded here. Intresting.

[/ QUOTE ]

understand why standards are opened up here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meaning? Unless I missed it (I am tired), there wasnt much of a read on the table. Unless u are just being philosophically vague. U can always explain though.

[/ QUOTE ]

my point is this is not ALWAYS a raise in EP. it is an adjustment. if you change your game to suit the situation, great. if you think this is a default play, it may cost you long-term.

Derek in NYC

08-22-2005, 10:39 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I bet for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

By value, you're basically assuming villain will call with ace high, and that he was three-betting you with A9-AQ based on your MP openraise against a poster and the blinds (a reasonable read based on his stats, I suppose).

I think the river filling a spade flush basically negates your value bet, and worse, leaves you open to a river bluff-raise. With the spade threat card, it becomes very hard for ace high to call UI. You're behind every pocket pair except 33 and 55.

I think you could make a case that this would be a value bet if the river were a blank like the 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, but I think situations like this fall more into the category of "check for value" rather than "bet for value", since a good number of aggressive opponents will use the spade threat card to try and bluff you off the hand.

Erik W

08-22-2005, 11:22 AM

Sfer, what range do you think he cap with your LAG image?

Danenania

08-22-2005, 11:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
3 handed Party 20/40.

We've been playing 3-handed for about 10 orbits. I've raised maybe 6 out of the last 8 hands so, surprise surprise, I probably have a LAG image. The table was 10 handed but we are the leftovers. The Button had adjusted very poorly at first (folding too much, coldcalling a bit) but now seems to be getting the right mix preflop. SB is a flat out LAG and is making the game great. For those who don't like to play short, situations like this--which happen frequently late at night in B&M games and routinely at the Party 15 and bigger--should make you want to get very good at shorthanded play.

Anyway, Button raises, SB folds, I 3-bet in the BB with Ac Qh, Button caps, I call.

HU for 8.5 SBs. Flop is 8c 9h 3d. I check, button bets, I checkraise, button calls.

HU to the turn for 6.25 BBs. Turn is the Td. I bet, button calls.

River is the 3h and I bet for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't get the flop checkraise.

sfer

08-22-2005, 12:04 PM

I think this is a rare instance where a flop checkraise gives me a lot of information.

Also, if you're living on E 92nd somehow it seems very likely to me that you're in Dormandy.

colgin

08-22-2005, 12:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
10 handed Party 20/40.

CO posts a blind. 2 folds and I open 6h 6d UTG+2, folds to the CO who 3-bets. He is 24.6/13.5/1.68 over 15K hands so quite aggressive and is probably opening his hand range here because he knows I am. He WTSD is 35. Folds to me and I contemplate capping but just call. HU and 7.5 SBs.

Flop is 2s 7h Kd. I check, he bets, and I peel.

Turn is the 4s. Check/check.

River is the 9s. I bet for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like it, particularly against an aggressive player who may very well be more likely to bet a worse hand/busted draw than to call with one.

You called the flop on a completely drawless flop. Thus, when villain checks the turn he either has a very big made hand or is hoping to catch one of his outs against your perceived made hand (given your pre-flop raise and flop call).

Assuming villain missed his own draw (if he didn't he is calling and you are beat) what is he calling with? Specifically hands like AQ, AJ and AT. Yes, he may have those hands but after checking the turn will he call with them. What does he put you on here that he can beat once you bet? (You would have had to call the flop with either a backdoor draw of some sort, Ax or a pair). A pair beats him (I am assuming he doesn't have a worse pair here because he likely bets the turn if he does, plus there are only 33 and 55 that are worse); Ax may have hit or may have him outkicked (if he has AJ or AT and you have AQ). So he is relying on you having called the flop with a weak draw and now bluffing the river having missed (also assuming that the nine did not hit you). Villain may think he can win with one of those hands (AQ, AJ, AT) by bluff-raising (especially given the three-flush) but I doubt he thinks he can win in a showdown by just calling.

I think in this case you are better off trying to induce the bluff from the aggressive player.

sfer

08-22-2005, 12:22 PM

Colgin, in these games when the postflop action goes check/bet/call, check/check, he will always call with a decent unpaired ace to pick-off a bluff. He may bet sometimes but there are very real metagame reasons why I would rather bet than check/call.

Derek in NYC

08-22-2005, 12:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
he will always call with a decent unpaired ace to pick-off a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this characteristic of the player, or the 20/40 full?

colgin

08-22-2005, 12:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Colgin, in these games when the postflop action goes check/bet/call, check/check, he will always call with a decent unpaired ace to pick-off a bluff. He may bet sometimes but there are very real metagame reasons why I would rather bet than check/call.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK then. I don't play in those games so it will be very nice to have this information if and when I get there. I do think there are more combos of Ax hands he might have that you beat than other hands that he would have played this way that beat you. So if he will generally call with those hands then I agree you have a value bet. Obviously I understand that often when the action goes check/check on the turn then the button will call HU with many hands in order to catch a bluff. In this particular instance I thought that might not apply given the texture of theboard and theaction. This may be a case where you really need to know those games specifically to play optimally. If villain calls in these situations with Ace high then I think your play is, of course, fine.

Derek in NYC

08-22-2005, 12:34 PM

OK Dave, so what about the point about villain possibly making a river bluff raise? Doesnt the spade threat card worry you? How do you handle a river raise? Doens't your river bet smell like a bullshit bet on a threat card?

As I said initially, I think this value bet (thin) works better on a blank river like the 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

sfer

08-22-2005, 12:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
OK Dave, so what about the point about villain possibly making a river bluff raise? Doesnt the spade threat card worry you? How do you handle a river raise? Doens't your river bet smell like a bullshit bet on a threat card?

As I said initially, I think this value bet (thin) works better on a blank river like the 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

If he's capable of bluff-raising that river then more power to him. It's something that happens so rarely that I think it's worth disregarding. FWIW, the running spades make it much less likely that I'll get value-raised, which, IMO, is more reason to bet.

gaming_mouse

08-22-2005, 01:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]

HU to the turn for 6.25 BBs. Turn is the Td. I bet, button calls.

River is the 3h and I bet for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your description of the button is a somewhat tight, passive player who is starting to loosen up a bit. He capped preflop, and then seemed to decide to call you down after your c/r. It seems fairly clear that he has a pocket pair or AK. Maybe AQ or AJs. I don't see how you find a value bet here, even a marginal one.

Am I missing something from your read?

Justin A

08-22-2005, 01:53 PM

Danenania

08-22-2005, 01:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a rare instance where a flop checkraise gives me a lot of information.

Also, if you're living on E 92nd somehow it seems very likely to me that you're in Dormandy.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I'm in Yorkville. Where/what is Dormandy? I'm an NYC newb.

As for the flop info, I'm not sure I see your point. If he 3-bets you, yes you find out that you're most likely behind but you will then be getting 8 to 1 on the turn and 10 to 1 on the river. Assuming you consider those odds good enough on the turn to call (I would), are you willing to fold the river getting 10 to 1? Even if a fold is correct there I think you're losing a good bit by getting into that spot.

And if he just calls the flop c/r? So what? Overpairs or a set if he already has one will call the flop and raise the turn quite often which will suck because then you will be getting 9 to 1 with no clue if you have 6 outs or 0 (and sometimes he'll have a worse hand). Even if he doesn't raise the turn and just calls down you're still costing yourself extra against his pairs and AK.

Add to these problems that you often let his weaker Aces and bluffs off the hook with the checkraise. I think going into calldown mode emerges as the better line.

Trix

08-22-2005, 02:32 PM

Which hands will will call if you bet the river, which will check if you check and which will bet if you check ?

sfer

08-22-2005, 05:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Which hands will will call if you bet the river, which will check if you check and which will bet if you check ?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think most Aces are calling, particularly when they call the turn as, of course, is every hand that beats me. I think AK checks behind and most pairs bet the river. I think, given the flop action, I never get bluffed.

But, the game is 3-handed and, like I said, he's starting to play preflop just about right, which means his capping range is large enough to include hands like A9s and such, since obviously my 3-betting range is adjusted. Basically, I would expect any hand that beats me except AK to give me more flop/turn action.

sfer

08-22-2005, 05:25 PM

If this were 6 handed I agree. 3 handed it's just much too likely that I have the best hand and he has a 6 outer to risk a freebie.

And if he 3-bets the flop I'm willing to release on the turn.

gaming_mouse

08-22-2005, 06:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If this were 6 handed I agree. 3 handed it's just much too likely that I have the best hand and he has a 6 outer to risk a freebie.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dave,

What is his range after the flop action?

Are you trying to get him to release hands like KJs? If so, how many such hands are there? It seems the benefit you gain by betting when he holds hands like KJs may be outweighed by what you lose when he raises his better hands.

Unless you are releasing to a turn raise. But in that case we have to worry about his bluffing frequency, don't we?

Luv2DriveTT

08-22-2005, 07:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If this were 6 handed I agree. 3 handed it's just much too likely that I have the best hand and he has a 6 outer to risk a freebie.

And if he 3-bets the flop I'm willing to release on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I sometimes release the flop if I'm 3-bet here, do you ever consider the same?

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

Luv2DriveTT

08-22-2005, 07:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
3 handed Party 20/40.

We've been playing 3-handed for about 10 orbits. I've raised maybe 6 out of the last 8 hands so, surprise surprise, I probably have a LAG image. The table was 10 handed but we are the leftovers. The Button had adjusted very poorly at first (folding too much, coldcalling a bit) but now seems to be getting the right mix preflop. SB is a flat out LAG and is making the game great. For those who don't like to play short, situations like this--which happen frequently late at night in B&M games and routinely at the Party 15 and bigger--should make you want to get very good at shorthanded play.

Anyway, Button raises, SB folds, I 3-bet in the BB with Ac Qh, Button caps, I call.

HU for 8.5 SBs. Flop is 8c 9h 3d. I check, button bets, I checkraise, button calls.

HU to the turn for 6.25 BBs. Turn is the Td. I bet, button calls.

River is the 3h and I bet for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not a valuebet and you know it.

[/ QUOTE ]

True its not actually to the definition of a value bet (unless he is calling the river with Ax)... but it is a winning play none the less. Very margional, but it works in the long run.

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

gaming_mouse

08-22-2005, 07:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]

True its not actually to the definition of a value bet (unless he is calling the river with Ax)... but it is a winning play none the less. Very margional, but it works in the long run.

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

TT,

What do you mean here? If it's not value bet but still a winning play, do you think villain is folding the best hand sometimes?

sfer

08-22-2005, 07:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If this were 6 handed I agree. 3 handed it's just much too likely that I have the best hand and he has a 6 outer to risk a freebie.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dave,

What is his range after the flop action?

Are you trying to get him to release hands like KJs? If so, how many such hands are there? It seems the benefit you gain by betting when he holds hands like KJs may be outweighed by what you lose when he raises his better hands.

Unless you are releasing to a turn raise. But in that case we have to worry about his bluffing frequency, don't we?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, that's the crux of it. I think pretty much any postflop aggression is rarely bluffing such that my only decision is whether to call with somewhere between zero and six outs. But, given that he capped preflop and I still checkraised the flop it will pretty much always require a big pair from him to raise the turn.

sfer

08-22-2005, 07:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If this were 6 handed I agree. 3 handed it's just much too likely that I have the best hand and he has a 6 outer to risk a freebie.

And if he 3-bets the flop I'm willing to release on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I sometimes release the flop if I'm 3-bet here, do you ever consider the same?

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Not 3-handed.

gaming_mouse

08-22-2005, 07:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
But, given that he capped preflop and I still checkraised the flop it will pretty much always require a big pair from him to raise the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cool. Makes sense. Especially given your read I don't think he'd be bluffing there.

But I still don't see how the river bet can be right unless you think he's folding AK or even a mid PP, which seems unlikely but, again, is read-dependent.

oreogod

08-22-2005, 08:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
OK Dave, so what about the point about villain possibly making a river bluff raise? Doesnt the spade threat card worry you? How do you handle a river raise? Doens't your river bet smell like a bullshit bet on a threat card?

As I said initially, I think this value bet (thin) works better on a blank river like the 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

If he's capable of bluff-raising that river then more power to him. It's something that happens so rarely that I think it's worth disregarding. FWIW, the running spades make it much less likely that I'll get value-raised, which, IMO, is more reason to bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

So are u calling the raise or folding?