View Full Version : running bad: stat question
stinkypete
08-19-2005, 09:28 PM
is it normal for your went to SD to go up 4-5 points when you're running really bad? or do i tilt and start calling down way too much?
http://www.ecf.utoronto.ca/~pollane/runningbad.jpg
My WTSD doesn't seem to change much (sometimes drops when I just miss, miss, miss flops). My W$SD often drops noticeably, though. Don't know what this means, but maybe look at some calldowns for questionable decision-making.
whodaman
08-19-2005, 09:35 PM
my first thought is you tilt, but i have no real evidence
stinkypete
08-19-2005, 09:37 PM
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My W$SD often drops noticeably, though.
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that would make sense.
I didnt read the OP closely enough and whatever I posted has no merit what so ever
stinkypete
08-19-2005, 09:43 PM
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if your running real bad then your deviation from the mean is going to be alot higher over a small sample size. Which should explain the high SD.
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my went to showdown almost always gets higher when i'm running bad. it's not because the sample size is too small.
Danenania
08-19-2005, 10:19 PM
Mine tends to be lower actually, since I'm a.) not hitting as many flops and b.) folding to more raises on the turn and river when passive players suckout.
Mine gets higher as people fold the flop, turn, river less often vs me.
Also, I think you are forced to call down more, even vs passive players if they see you fold a couple of times, so that will make it higher aswell.
TylerK
08-19-2005, 10:35 PM
It's also possible that you're making more second-best, showdown-able hands than usual.
Danenania
08-20-2005, 12:05 AM
True. Guess it just depends on what type of bad you're running.
wackjob
08-20-2005, 12:43 AM
I have 3300 hands of 10/20 at Party now. My VPIP & PFR are each a point lower than my extensive 5/10 stats. My WenttoSD% is 1/10th% different, however. I think you are running bad and this is a reflection of it.
Over my last 1400 hands, my VPIP was 5 percent lower than average, my WTSD percentage was 4 points lower than average, and my W$SD percentage was 16 points lower than average. That's how to run bad, play weak tight, and drop 170 BB all at once.
Justin A
08-20-2005, 01:10 AM
There's different types of running bad. Sometimes it's because you're missing a lot of flops, and sometimes it's because you're getting sucked out on alot. I would imagine your WtSD would reflect this. However I'm totally guessing, so I could be way off.
jgorham
08-20-2005, 05:30 AM
My WSD rose about 3% in my 15k hand breakeven streak. Not sure if that answers your question, or if I should be asking the same one myself, but nevertheless it did occur.
MicroBob
08-20-2005, 05:28 PM
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It's also possible that you're making more second-best, showdown-able hands than usual.
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exactly.
Every AQ on A-high flop runs into AK.
Every AQ on Q-high flop runs into KQ but they catch their K on the river and it's still worth calling down against them.
Every T7 in big-blind on T-high flop runs into JT.
Sometimes having hands worth calling down gets awfully pricey.
Also, you defend your BB pretty strongly (about the same as my numbers actually)...so every AK that doesn't hit runs into 22 that still calls you down....everytime you call down with 77 your opponent catches an 8 on the river to beat you with 82o.
So what I read out of this (possibly) is that you are catching a lot of hands worth calling down....but your opponents are obviously making a lot of better hands in there.
and when you're winning you're probably taking a lot more pots before you ever get to showdown and that's a factor to be consider as well.
short-version: downswings suck.
arkady
08-20-2005, 05:39 PM
It is a good question and I don't have a solid answer for you, but generally my downswings bring my WSD down, and....
From all the numbers I have seen in the past year, 44 is the highest. Now this does not mean it is wrong, but I always presumed that 33-39 was optimal based on style. I am also skeptical regarding the reliability of WSD over a 2.2k hand stretch.
stinkypete
08-20-2005, 06:21 PM
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From all the numbers I have seen in the past year, 44 is the highest. Now this does not mean it is wrong, but I always presumed that 33-39 was optimal based on style. I am also skeptical regarding the reliability of WSD over a 2.2k hand stretch.
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i've won ~2.5bb/100 over 80k+ with my WTSD around 40-41... not saying it's optimal though, cuz it certainly isnt.
the problem is it gets way too high when i run bad. i go to showdown way too much, and i'm wondering if this is one of my biggest leaks. based on the replies here, it probably is. it seems i'm the only one around here that goes to showdown anywhere near this much.
arkady
08-20-2005, 06:56 PM
40-41? Well you definitely know when/how to showdown a lot more than most people on this board...if it worked, don't fix it. Of course you could have run super well for 80k hands, but that is probably unlikely.
I don't know what to tell you man, only you can evaluate your own play. Perhaps your form of tilt is to showdown bottom pair and/or Q high on a regular basis...dunno.
most frutrating thing about these down streaks it that they make you question things that you never wondered about before. Sometimes people fix leaks this way other times you are running around in circles desperately trying to figure out what the hell is going on. I'll just go out on a limb and say 44 is too high and you can probably save some money by folding.
stinkypete
08-20-2005, 07:14 PM
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I don't know what to tell you man, only you can evaluate your own play. Perhaps your form of tilt is to showdown bottom pair and/or Q high on a regular basis...dunno.
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i don't think it's so much what i'm showing down, as it is how i'm getting there.
when i run bad, and it seems like i'm getting checkraised on every turn, i think start turning into a pussy and not betting turns when i should with marginal but vulnerable hands, trying to ensure i get to showdown in case the guy's bluffing...
i used to bet a ton, hardly ever checking through the turn after a PFR and flop bet, and that sort of worked, though it probably wasn't optimal. lately i've been trying to check turns more in appropriate spots, but i think i'm probably starting to overdo it especially when i run bad. and i hardly ever fold the river with my ace high after showing weakness on the turn, so i probably should be betting more turns so i don't have that tough river decision.
i probably also call with ace high way too much after going to the river with my overs or whatever draw, thinking the pot's big and my ace high might be good even though i got checkraised on the flop and faced a turn and river bet...
anyway, i'm gonna try to post hands that involve these situations. thanks for the comments everyone.
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