Jman28
08-19-2005, 02:33 PM
The theme I'm getting at in my heads up theory post (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=3183019&page=0&view=colla psed&sb=5&o=14&vc=1) is not a very complicated one, and maybe not even that controversial of one.
It is simply that there are factors not taken into account by ICM. By thinking a little outside the box, I think we can come up with some of these.
Here's another example, which I believe to be more clearcut, and maybe totally different.
4 Handed
Hero (BB): 2200
SB: 2700
Button: 2300
UTG: 2800
Blinds are 150/300
UTG pushes.
Hero has ATo and magically knows his opponents range is exactly 22+,A2+,K2+,Q7+,Q5s+.
Now ICM has this as basically nuetral EV. (At a $109 this costs you 3 cents)
I think this should be almost a clear call, for a couple reasons.
a) Calling and losing ends your game instantly (increasing hourly rate)
b) Calling and winning (58% of the time) is more +EV than ICM thinks because after it, chip stacks will look like this:
BB: 600
Hero (sb): 4550
Button: 2550
UTG: 2300
I won't go into to much detail here, but I think most experienced SnG players will see the advantage of a chip situation like the one above. Basically, your folding equity against the two medium stacks will be extremely high, and you will often get the smaller stack to fold most hands too, hoping for a call behind him.
Lemme know what you think.
*I know this is a simplification. I know that you have some +EV by surviving simply because of your skill edge. Also there is extra +EV when you win since you will be pushed on less after showing the will to call with ATo. There are tons of small factors like this.
Edit: I hope this doesn't look like an attempt to 'debunk' ICM. That's not at all what it is. ICM is great.
It is simply that there are factors not taken into account by ICM. By thinking a little outside the box, I think we can come up with some of these.
Here's another example, which I believe to be more clearcut, and maybe totally different.
4 Handed
Hero (BB): 2200
SB: 2700
Button: 2300
UTG: 2800
Blinds are 150/300
UTG pushes.
Hero has ATo and magically knows his opponents range is exactly 22+,A2+,K2+,Q7+,Q5s+.
Now ICM has this as basically nuetral EV. (At a $109 this costs you 3 cents)
I think this should be almost a clear call, for a couple reasons.
a) Calling and losing ends your game instantly (increasing hourly rate)
b) Calling and winning (58% of the time) is more +EV than ICM thinks because after it, chip stacks will look like this:
BB: 600
Hero (sb): 4550
Button: 2550
UTG: 2300
I won't go into to much detail here, but I think most experienced SnG players will see the advantage of a chip situation like the one above. Basically, your folding equity against the two medium stacks will be extremely high, and you will often get the smaller stack to fold most hands too, hoping for a call behind him.
Lemme know what you think.
*I know this is a simplification. I know that you have some +EV by surviving simply because of your skill edge. Also there is extra +EV when you win since you will be pushed on less after showing the will to call with ATo. There are tons of small factors like this.
Edit: I hope this doesn't look like an attempt to 'debunk' ICM. That's not at all what it is. ICM is great.