GtrHtr
08-19-2005, 01:03 PM
So I've been pondering the impact of the new PP level 5 blinds off and on for 2 months now. Since 15 June or whenever the change went into effect there have been a lot of posts (more so than I remember) about variance and downswings. July was a truly awesome "the sky is falling" month of posts.
I think, some of what is happening is due to level 5 and some players ability to adjust or not.
In many ways, Level 5 has caused a change in both level 3 and level 4. I see more players playing level 3 like level 4 used to be played, and more players playing level 4 like level 3. What do I mean?
I see more aggression in level 3, but controlled aggression such as 3-5BB raises where chips begin to be passed from player to player with fewer players going out. In level 4 I see a lot of limping when there are 6-10 players left. Again, chips going from one to another where whoever bets the flop picks up 400-500 chips but there are fewer pushes.
On to level 5 and 6. Now players are starting to go away, BUT, the chip passing of the previous levels has had an effect on the numbers of players still in the game - so there may be 6 or 7 players entering level 6 where there used to be 4 or 5. I think this effects ITM% and ROI% to a degree. I would be interested from posters with significant stats in the $33s and below over the past 6 months(+) to compare and contrast ITM but more so ROI, finish distribution and OOTM% with their stats over the past 2 months (15 June-15 Aug). I say $33s and below because I think the larger starting stack at the $55s and above makes this less of an issue, just MHO.
Now, how and when do you begin to play like its the bubble before the bubble when the game goes the way I've described above. Certainly, more players lends itself to patience as the blinds are coming around less frequently. So how does that effect 2 parts of our late play? Calling standards and pushing standards.
Pushing standards. Lets say you are in the following situation on level 6 with 7 players remaining:
Blinds 200/100
SB 900
BB 1050
UTG 850
UTG+1 2000
MP 800
CO 1300
Button 1100
You are the button its folded to you and you're dealt:
K /images/graemlins/heart.gif9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif
What is your play?
Pros and cons exist. Level 6 blinds are getting attractive to steal but you've got about 12 hands or so before you are getting to the point where you lose your FE. Will you get a better hand in the next 12 hands? How many players will be gone in the next 12 hands and does that make it more like 8 or 10 hands until you start losing FE? If the game was 4 handed, this would be a clear push.
Calling standards.
Same scenario above but now you are the BB. Its folded around to the button who pushes - you don't know his hand. You hold:
A /images/graemlins/club.gif9 /images/graemlins/club.gif
Call or fold? Perhaps an easier decision but maybe not. If you fold, you have 6 hands until you lose FE assuming no one is knocked out. If you call, well, do the math. If this was 4 handed this is a clear call IMO.
The dynamics of level 6 with 6-8 players remaining. Chances are, there will be several players eliminated during level 6 from steal attempts, poor raising in steal attempts, and lack of patience. How does this effect your view of playing and the cards you are willing to push and call with?
Finally, there is a fine line between patience and aggression in games like this. It is magnified by getting to the bubble and either having a decent stack or still being around 1100 chips where you started the last level. The remainder of the game is now perhaps more down to luck than skill. Being on the bubble in level 7 or even 8 is in many ways an exercise in luck based on the cards you are dealt and the cards on the board - unless you are chip leader or 2d in chips very close to chip leader. This fact alone may justify pushing the button hand above and calling the BB hand as well. It could also create a new variation to changes in finish distribution and the other stats I listed above.
So, I've been pondering the effects of level 5. By the questions I raise thoughout it is clear that I'm not done pondering it yet but I think I'm beginning to understand some of the effects it is causing my own play. I will be interested to see your thoughts on pushing hands and calling hands in the games that run this course as well as any pre level 5/post level 5 stats you may have.
GTR
I think, some of what is happening is due to level 5 and some players ability to adjust or not.
In many ways, Level 5 has caused a change in both level 3 and level 4. I see more players playing level 3 like level 4 used to be played, and more players playing level 4 like level 3. What do I mean?
I see more aggression in level 3, but controlled aggression such as 3-5BB raises where chips begin to be passed from player to player with fewer players going out. In level 4 I see a lot of limping when there are 6-10 players left. Again, chips going from one to another where whoever bets the flop picks up 400-500 chips but there are fewer pushes.
On to level 5 and 6. Now players are starting to go away, BUT, the chip passing of the previous levels has had an effect on the numbers of players still in the game - so there may be 6 or 7 players entering level 6 where there used to be 4 or 5. I think this effects ITM% and ROI% to a degree. I would be interested from posters with significant stats in the $33s and below over the past 6 months(+) to compare and contrast ITM but more so ROI, finish distribution and OOTM% with their stats over the past 2 months (15 June-15 Aug). I say $33s and below because I think the larger starting stack at the $55s and above makes this less of an issue, just MHO.
Now, how and when do you begin to play like its the bubble before the bubble when the game goes the way I've described above. Certainly, more players lends itself to patience as the blinds are coming around less frequently. So how does that effect 2 parts of our late play? Calling standards and pushing standards.
Pushing standards. Lets say you are in the following situation on level 6 with 7 players remaining:
Blinds 200/100
SB 900
BB 1050
UTG 850
UTG+1 2000
MP 800
CO 1300
Button 1100
You are the button its folded to you and you're dealt:
K /images/graemlins/heart.gif9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif
What is your play?
Pros and cons exist. Level 6 blinds are getting attractive to steal but you've got about 12 hands or so before you are getting to the point where you lose your FE. Will you get a better hand in the next 12 hands? How many players will be gone in the next 12 hands and does that make it more like 8 or 10 hands until you start losing FE? If the game was 4 handed, this would be a clear push.
Calling standards.
Same scenario above but now you are the BB. Its folded around to the button who pushes - you don't know his hand. You hold:
A /images/graemlins/club.gif9 /images/graemlins/club.gif
Call or fold? Perhaps an easier decision but maybe not. If you fold, you have 6 hands until you lose FE assuming no one is knocked out. If you call, well, do the math. If this was 4 handed this is a clear call IMO.
The dynamics of level 6 with 6-8 players remaining. Chances are, there will be several players eliminated during level 6 from steal attempts, poor raising in steal attempts, and lack of patience. How does this effect your view of playing and the cards you are willing to push and call with?
Finally, there is a fine line between patience and aggression in games like this. It is magnified by getting to the bubble and either having a decent stack or still being around 1100 chips where you started the last level. The remainder of the game is now perhaps more down to luck than skill. Being on the bubble in level 7 or even 8 is in many ways an exercise in luck based on the cards you are dealt and the cards on the board - unless you are chip leader or 2d in chips very close to chip leader. This fact alone may justify pushing the button hand above and calling the BB hand as well. It could also create a new variation to changes in finish distribution and the other stats I listed above.
So, I've been pondering the effects of level 5. By the questions I raise thoughout it is clear that I'm not done pondering it yet but I think I'm beginning to understand some of the effects it is causing my own play. I will be interested to see your thoughts on pushing hands and calling hands in the games that run this course as well as any pre level 5/post level 5 stats you may have.
GTR