Am I a doof?

[WarDekar]

***** Hand History for Game 2561124389 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:14973464 Level:3 Blinds(25/50) - Friday, August 19, 11:21:59 EDT 2005
Table Table 13778 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 7
Seat 5: bpnelson ( $1270 )
Seat 4: BerryBluntz ( $1665 )
Seat 6: eisenbergdan ( $1745 )
Seat 8: skotoigra ( $615 )
Seat 3: Bologna_1101 ( $1380 )
Seat 1: MasterG11 ( $315 )
Seat 7: JACKmm ( $1010 )
Trny:14973464 Level:3
Blinds(25/50)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to BerryBluntz [ Ac Kc ]
bpnelson folds.
eisenbergdan folds.
JACKmm raises [125].
skotoigra folds.
MasterG11 folds.
Bologna_1101 folds.
BerryBluntz calls [75].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 3h, 4s, 4h ]
>You have options at Table 13974 Table!.
>You have options at Table 13969 Table!.
BerryBluntz bets [1000].
JACKmm is all-In [885]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Jc ]
** Dealing River ** [ 9c ]
>You have options at Table 13974 Table!.

Results in white below
<font color="white">

BerryBluntz shows [ Ac, Kc ] a pair of fours.
JACKmm shows [ 4d, Ad ] three of a kind, fours.
BerryBluntz wins 115 chips from side pot #1 with a pair of fours.
JACKmm wins 2045 chips from the main pot with three of a kind, fours.</font>

Trust me I know I f-ed this one up, berate my play...

[tigerite]

He's raised to 125, with 50 + 25 in the blinds, this equates to 200 in the pot. That's 20% of the "in play" stack (i.e. - his) and so I would just push this preflop. On the flop, I really don't like your line, but I wouldn't have got there in the first place.. still.. I would just check and fold giving him credit for a pocket pair.

[WarDekar]

Pre flop I was putting him on Ax, KQ, or a PP. I decided if I raised anymore it'd have to be a push, but I didn't want to do that because there was a good chance he had a PP and would definitely call that, but most likely would drop an Ax or KQ.

Once on the flop I felt with the way it came out I could take it down the vast majority of the time by poooooshing. I could've bet the pot and played it from there, but that's a bit weak as I'm going to have to fold to a push, no?

[tigerite]

You're thinking negatively. For a start he won't always have a PP (as you can see, in fact). You said yourself he could have Ax, KQ/KJ or a PP then instantly you're saying only a PP to push all-in. You can't think this passively in an SNG and hope to win in the long term. You really should push this hand, and I really don't think it's that close at these levels.

You could even do the maths if you want. So what if he drops the Ax and KQ/KJ. I'll take the 200 chips any day without a showdown, wouldn't you?

[WarDekar]

Of course I take the 200 chips, but the problem is he could easily have a PP, which I guess I have 6 outs to, but I just don't see him calling with anything other than a fav here.

I'm probably not thinking straight here though, I've had some horrible beats so far today, at least I got extremely lucky for a win...

[tigerite]

Sigh..

I've given you the correct answer and still you won't see it. Fine I'll do you some maths, then you'll see, and I'll use conservative values, too.

20% of the time - he has Ax/KQ/KJ - folds let's say 90% of the time.

So 0.2 x 0.9 = 0.18 you get T1615 + 200 = T1815
0.2 x 0.1 x 0.75 you get T1615 + 1010 + 75 = T2700
0.2 x 0.1 x 0.25 you get T1615 - 1010 = T605

We'll say 90% he has 22-QQ when he has a PP, 5% KK, 5% AA. We'll even say he calls 100% of the time (very unrealistic with 22-66, say, but anyway..)

0.8 x 0.45 x 0.9 you get T2700
0.8 x 0.55 x 0.9 you get T605

0.8 x 0.3 x 0.05 you get T2700
0.8 x 0.7 x 0.05 you get T605

0.8 x 0.07 x 0.05 you get T2700
0.8 x 0.93 x 0.05 you get T605


0.2 x 0.9 = 0.18 you get T1615 + 200 = T1815


0.2 x 0.9 ==&gt; T1815 = T326.7

(0.2 x 0.1 x 0.75) + 0.8 x (0.45 x 0.9 + 0.3 x 0.05 + 0.07 x 0.05) ==&gt; T2700 = T955.26

(0.2 x 0.1 x 0.25) + 0.8 x (0.55 x 0.9 + 0.7 x 0.05 + 0.93 x 0.05) ==&gt; T605 = T282.051

Total = T1564

Even using these frankly ludicrous values you're losing 50 chips. It's not even close to anything like this, either..

[unreal_nh]

AK is a good hand and most likely better than anything he has, and if not just a coinflip... so whats the difference if u pick up the 200 before or after the flop? just put him all in pre flop if u are going to be this aggressive after the flop.

[MegaBet]

[ QUOTE ]
Of course I take the 200 chips, but the problem is he could easily have a PP, which I guess I have 6 outs

[/ QUOTE ]

Quote of the day lol

[Maulik]

playing any hand out of position is not fun.

push &gt; call &gt; muck

but I don't mind

push &gt; muck &gt; call either.

its a large % of your stacksize OOP

edit muck is terrible, calling isn't an optoin.

I auto-push.