My thoughts on going pro

[PokerBob]

After reading an earlier rant about how there are too many useless posts about going pro, I thought I'd write another one. I have just gone pro. I have only been pro for 3 weeks. I may end up bust. Who knows. But I put much time into pondering the decision and think my thought process may prove helpful to others considering the idea. I tend to be ultra-conservative in this area, but IMO it is better to be safe than sorry.

1.) Don't quit your job without a back-up plan. I took a one year leave from my job. I am guaranteed my old position back if I so choose.

2.) Have 6 months of expenses put away. BEFORE you start. I am single and have no dependents. I think for those with dependents, a year's worth is a better plan.

3.) Have a 1000BB bankroll for the limit you intend to play. My roll is 3000BB, but I intend to move up soon.

4.) This is the tricky one: Be honest and conservative with yourself about your expected winrate. I concluded I could survive if I won at 0.5bb/100. I don't think this is an unreasonable expectation. If you find you will need to win at 1.5bb/100 to survive, you are likely in over your head. For all the talk on 2+2 of people winning at 2+bb/100, IMO these people are few and far between. And even they run bad for stretches. Sitting down and feeling you must run good every time you play is a recipe for disaster. Scared money is dead money.

5.) Have at least 100K hands under your belt. I have 200K. Knowing your true winrate is going to take many more hands, but in 100K hands you are going to see all kinds of stuff. Not EVERYTHING, but likely enough to give you an idea of the madness that is poker.

6.) Read Inside the Poker Mind.

7.) Discuss your plans with others who you know and trust. Many people don't get it, but I found it helpful.

8.) Once you decide to do it, put it on hold and revisit your decision a month later.

[shant]

9) Harness the power of the sexy.

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
My roll is 3000BB

[/ QUOTE ]
I just want to point out that this is ridiculous to the point of absurdity.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My roll is 3000BB

[/ QUOTE ]
I just want to point out that this is ridiculous to the point of absurdity.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I tend to be ultra-conservative in this area

[/ QUOTE ]

[goofball]

[ QUOTE ]

6.) Read Inside the Poker Mind.

[/ QUOTE ]

Twice.

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My roll is 3000BB

[/ QUOTE ]
I just want to point out that this is ridiculous to the point of absurdity.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I tend to be ultra-conservative in this area

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

http://www.digitalfox.com/digitalfox/johnf-ingkerry/foilhat_files/foil5.jpg

[PokerBob]

leave my sister out of this

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My roll is 3000BB

[/ QUOTE ]
I just want to point out that this is ridiculous to the point of absurdity.

[/ QUOTE ]


no it's not

bankroll should not dictate the game you play. it could hold you back from playing bigger games, but your comfort level and ability should dictate where you play

[Evan]

You're right. I think Bob is confident he could beat bigger games though.

[stigmata]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My roll is 3000BB

[/ QUOTE ]
I just want to point out that this is ridiculous to the point of absurdity.

[/ QUOTE ]

For many people a big psychological cushion is more important than the statistical cushion. I have a feeling PokerBob can hit a 200BB downwning without really caring, whereas someone with a 600BB roll is definately going to start feeling jittery.

It is ridiculous to the point of absurdity in a mathematical sense, but I totally understand why someone would do this.

[Guernica4000]

I am going to start this post by saying" I am sorry and I should know this"

PokerBob,

1) You say you have 3,000bb does that mean that if you are playing 10-20 that your bank roll is $60,000?

2) You say you can make it on .05bb/100. Even multi- tabling wouldn't that be at most $40 an hour and if so and you played 5 days a week for 8 hours a day with some time off (vacation, holidays, etc.) roughly 2,000 hrs a year. You would make $80,000 a year. I would think that if you have $60,000 in your savings account you probably made more than $80k a year in your job.

So that is the part I don’t understand. How does someone go pro to play a minimum 4 tables for 8 hrs a day 5 days a week to make what they can make in a regular job with coffee breaks, hot girls, friends, and no risk.

If my calculations are off please let me know. I don’t mean to be rude and talk about your specific situation so a general explanation would be great.

$3-$6 bank roll $18,000 for $12 an hour $36,000 a year
$5-$10 bank roll $30,000 for $20 an hour $60,000 a year

Thanks

[bugstud]

.5BB/100, not .05. so redo that.

and yeah, I think he has that much and he's playing 10/20. I know I did, at least for a little while.

[LImitPlayer]

He's saying at worst case he could survive off .5BB/100 hands. His winrate is higher than this.

Working 40 hours a week He's also making an extra $4,000 each month give or take on top of that figure with rakeback 4 tabling the 5-10 6max.

Basicly for a full time player each table he plays is an extra $1k a month in rakeback, so if he's 8 tabling hes making $96K a year in rakeback plus his .5BB/100

[LImitPlayer]

His numbers are correct, he was assuming Bob was 8 tabling, which i don't think he is. He's 4 tabling atm I beleive.

I think he made a typo

I could be wrong

[danzasmack]

Another thing to point out is that when you work 40 hours a week playing poker, that's 40 hours of playing poker. Not five 8 hour days where you take an hour for lunch, talk to your buddy at the desk next to you for a bit, surf the web, go to the bank, etc.

[galahad_187]

i have 6000bb BR.
but i got it all playing NL and just now am starting to learn limit /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[colgin]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My roll is 3000BB

[/ QUOTE ]
I just want to point out that this is ridiculous to the point of absurdity.

[/ QUOTE ]


no it's not

bankroll should not dictate the game you play. it could hold you back from playing bigger games, but your comfort level and ability should dictate where you play

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that BR should not dictate the game in which you play but I thought (perhaps incorrectly) that Evan meant something else. I.e., that since a 3000 BR for a winning player at a given limit is mathematically absurd, PokerBob should be drawing off some more of that money and doing soemthing, either spending or investing, for example. If he is not going to move up then he doesn't need an excess 2000BB of BR sitting at Party Poker or in Neteller. Even being ultraconservative he could put them into an ING account or buy short term T bills (or at least a money market fund) and get some interest without tying his money up for too long in case he needs it when he does decide to move up. Now maybe PokerBob is already doing those things but just considers such moneu part of his BR. If it is all tied up on poker sites and not beingutilized then I think he probably could and should put his money to work a little.

[SL__72]

Very good point.

[MaxPower]

I'm not a pro, but I would suggest that you move up BEFORE becmoing a pro. Moving up has to be tough when you are counting on your income from poker. I would say learn to beat the game that you are going to live off before you make your move.

[arkady]

Yeah, I have like 35,000BB roll. ALl those .02/.04c clows on Stars fear me.

Seriously, good post Bob. First normal post regarding the subject I have read in a while.

[Guernica4000]

Yes, the .05bb was a typo; I did all the calculations at .5bb.
Thanks LImitPlayer for your explanation. Just to clarify are you saying that Bob could be making $96K in rake back (plus) 60K or 80K if he averages at his “minimum” of .5bb/100?

If so good luck Bob, I wish you well!!!

[Perseus]

I also want to point out that Bob takes much time to post hands and reply to others hand posts. This shows how much he is willing to study the game opposed to just playing and thinking he is good.

This is a major difference, I find, between people who fail and those who succeed.

I also want to make the point that 100,000 is really not enough online. Live, sure because you have time to really think about each hand. Online, especially 8 tabling, hands come and go so quickly only a select few are looked at carefully.

I would say one would really need 200,000-300,000 hands. Thats about a year and a half playing part time. (Avg around 15,000 hands a month)

Personally I was still a cocky, arrogant donk after my first year of playing. It wasn't until my second year that I started to really understand what poker was all about. Those who think they know everything after six months will probably be in for a rude awakening at some point.

Lastly, I think age plays a big factor into this. If someone is young, say under 25, and don't have a family, they can afford to give it a shot and go broke. If they fail they have their whole life to make it back and it doesn't impact anyone else. Someone who is 30-40 and has dependants better be much more conservative.

Ok done rambling.

GL Bob

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
You're right. I think Bob is confident he could beat bigger games though.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not so much about being confident you can beat bigger games as it is being able to handle the monetary swings that a higher limit comes with. For instance, if you move up to 15/30 you better be able to emotionally handle days where you lose two or three thousand.

[Perseus]

[ QUOTE ]
I am going to start this post by saying" I am sorry and I should know this"

PokerBob,

1) You say you have 3,000bb does that mean that if you are playing 10-20 that your bank roll is $60,000?

2) You say you can make it on .05bb/100. Even multi- tabling wouldn't that be at most $40 an hour and if so and you played 5 days a week for 8 hours a day with some time off (vacation, holidays, etc.) roughly 2,000 hrs a year. You would make $80,000 a year. I would think that if you have $60,000 in your savings account you probably made more than $80k a year in your job.

So that is the part I don’t understand. How does someone go pro to play a minimum 4 tables for 8 hrs a day 5 days a week to make what they can make in a regular job with coffee breaks, hot girls, friends, and no risk.

If my calculations are off please let me know. I don’t mean to be rude and talk about your specific situation so a general explanation would be great.

$3-$6 bank roll $18,000 for $12 an hour $36,000 a year
$5-$10 bank roll $30,000 for $20 an hour $60,000 a year

Thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

One, Bob was a teacher (correct me if I'm wrong). I remember because I start school to get my teaching certificate in January, and until then I am playing "professionally". A high school teacher has a lot of set time requirements. You have to work these days, you have to take off those days, etc. Playing poker gives the freedom to work whenever (as long as he gets his hours in), take vacation whenever, and wake up after 7am. Also, teaching in a school can be very frusterating at times.

Most importantly, if poker works out the potential to make much much more than 80,000 a year exists. If one plays poker professionally they can shoot up the ranks within a year and be playing 30/60 with plenty of role in a short period of time. You are also one major tournament away from a life changing amount of money. This will probably not happen, but it could, and that's why it's a chance.

In Bob's case, worst scenerio is that he is in the same position he is now this time next year and has a job to go back to. Best case, he is making much money and STILL has the choice to go back. Given Bob's dedication to learn the game and his humble tone that he still has much to learn, I would say he will do very well at 10/206max when he moves up (if he hasn't already)

[autobet]

[ QUOTE ]

For many people a big psychological cushion is more important than the statistical cushion.

[/ QUOTE ]

[autobet]

[ QUOTE ]
After reading an earlier rant about how there are too many useless posts about going pro, I thought I'd write another one. I have just gone pro. I have only been pro for 3 weeks. I may end up bust. Who knows. But I put much time into pondering the decision and think my thought process may prove helpful to others considering the idea. I tend to be ultra-conservative in this area, but IMO it is better to be safe than sorry.

1.) Don't quit your job without a back-up plan. I took a one year leave from my job. I am guaranteed my old position back if I so choose.

2.) Have 6 months of expenses put away. BEFORE you start. I am single and have no dependents. I think for those with dependents, a year's worth is a better plan.

3.) Have a 1000BB bankroll for the limit you intend to play. My roll is 3000BB, but I intend to move up soon.

4.) This is the tricky one: Be honest and conservative with yourself about your expected winrate. I concluded I could survive if I won at 0.5bb/100. I don't think this is an unreasonable expectation. If you find you will need to win at 1.5bb/100 to survive, you are likely in over your head. For all the talk on 2+2 of people winning at 2+bb/100, IMO these people are few and far between. And even they run bad for stretches. Sitting down and feeling you must run good every time you play is a recipe for disaster. Scared money is dead money.

5.) Have at least 100K hands under your belt. I have 200K. Knowing your true winrate is going to take many more hands, but in 100K hands you are going to see all kinds of stuff. Not EVERYTHING, but likely enough to give you an idea of the madness that is poker.



[/ QUOTE ]

Excellent Post. The best by far on going pro.

[MicroBob]

We've seen a couple of 'going pro' posts in this forum lately where I (and everyone else) pretty much responded "ummm...you don't know what the hell you're talking about."

Bob's post couldn't have come at a better time imo.
Gives me (and others) a chance to say "See?!?! This guy has it all together and knows what he's doing!!"


It's nice to be able to respond to someone who says "I've been pro for 3 weeks...here's what I think" with "Absolutely. Someone actually gets it."



To be fair - there are some situations where I think you can get away with it without the 100k hands or 1000BB bankroll. But this is a situation where you are looking at it as 'taking a shot'.
I left my $13/hour blackjack dealing job to 'give it a shot' for 2 or 3 months. I could always go back to dealing if it didn't work out. My bankroll was less than spectacular and my short-term win-rate wasn't anything to write home about.
But obviously it was okay for me to try it because I really didn't have much to lose.
My dealing job was just enough to pay the bills...and I could get it back whenever I wanted.....so I have the 'back-up' plan bit covered.


But for 'normal' people with 'real' jobs you really need to consider what you're doing and whether it's worth it.
I didn't have anything to lose by giving it a try. Most people do.



Bob's estimates about being conservative about your win-rate are spot on.


Finally - I suspect that if I had Bob's drive to study and improve my game (instead of putzing around in all these 'going pro' threads) I would be making a whole helluva lota more money than I am now.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
Now maybe PokerBob is already doing those things but just considers such moneu part of his BR.

[/ QUOTE ]

Kinda. Basically anything above and beyond my 6 months living (plus $5K I intend to send to the IRS in a month) I consider my roll. Some is in a safety box at Canterbury. Some is at a poker site. Some is in Neteller. Eventually it will be in an interest bearing account, but I just started being pro and wanted everything at my disposal.

[autobet]

[ QUOTE ]

Finally - I suspect that if I had Bob's drive to study and improve my game (instead of putzing around in all these 'going pro' threads) I would be making a whole helluva lota more money than I am now.

[/ QUOTE ]

What about actually playing?

[MicroBob]

that would be a good idea too.

i've got 3 tables going right now.....woo-hoo!!

[dogmeat]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My roll is 3000BB

[/ QUOTE ]
I just want to point out that this is ridiculous to the point of absurdity.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, this is not absurd.

There is nothing wrong with having more in your "available" bankroll than the oft quoted 300BB. Having a substantial amount over that allows peace of mind, and also allows the occasional foray into higher games - and allows buy-ins to expensive tournaments (which as you know are going up in price, and also have high volatility).

What is really ridiculous to the point of absurity is that so many people here think their way of thinking is the BEST and ONLY way to play poker and live their lives.

Dogmeat /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not a pro, but I would suggest that you move up BEFORE becmoing a pro. Moving up has to be tough when you are counting on your income from poker. I would say learn to beat the game that you are going to live off before you make your move.

[/ QUOTE ]

Great advice.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
I am going to start this post by saying" I am sorry and I should know this"

PokerBob,

1) You say you have 3,000bb does that mean that if you are playing 10-20 that your bank roll is $60,000?

2) You say you can make it on .05bb/100. Even multi- tabling wouldn't that be at most $40 an hour and if so and you played 5 days a week for 8 hours a day with some time off (vacation, holidays, etc.) roughly 2,000 hrs a year. You would make $80,000 a year. I would think that if you have $60,000 in your savings account you probably made more than $80k a year in your job.

So that is the part I don’t understand. How does someone go pro to play a minimum 4 tables for 8 hrs a day 5 days a week to make what they can make in a regular job with coffee breaks, hot girls, friends, and no risk.

If my calculations are off please let me know. I don’t mean to be rude and talk about your specific situation so a general explanation would be great.

$3-$6 bank roll $18,000 for $12 an hour $36,000 a year
$5-$10 bank roll $30,000 for $20 an hour $60,000 a year

Thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

I play 5/10, but am moving to 10/20 now, so I guess I have "only" 1500BB. I keep some of my roll at Canterbury, as I enjoy live play and don't want to become a complete recluse.

I made $50K as a teacher. That includes health insurance and retirement benefits. I figured I would need to make $70K playing poker for it to be a wash financially. That said, there is more to life than money. I do believe that I could make significantly more than that given the current poker climate, but also I needed a break from teaching.

I only 4-table. I get in about 300 hands/hour. I assumed I would play 35 hrs/week for 46 weeks. This would give me about 24K. Assuming rakeback was still around, that would be another 35K. My expenses are minimal, as I live meagerly. I could live on 2K/month.

[PokerBob]

......for which I feel shame. Get health insurance. And it's not close. I have insurance lined up through my job. Not having it is completely moronic.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
9) Harness the power of the sexy.

[/ QUOTE ]

isn't that a given?

[dcarlc]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I am going to start this post by saying" I am sorry and I should know this"

PokerBob,

1) You say you have 3,000bb does that mean that if you are playing 10-20 that your bank roll is $60,000?

2) You say you can make it on .05bb/100. Even multi- tabling wouldn't that be at most $40 an hour and if so and you played 5 days a week for 8 hours a day with some time off (vacation, holidays, etc.) roughly 2,000 hrs a year. You would make $80,000 a year. I would think that if you have $60,000 in your savings account you probably made more than $80k a year in your job.

So that is the part I don’t understand. How does someone go pro to play a minimum 4 tables for 8 hrs a day 5 days a week to make what they can make in a regular job with coffee breaks, hot girls, friends, and no risk.

If my calculations are off please let me know. I don’t mean to be rude and talk about your specific situation so a general explanation would be great.

$3-$6 bank roll $18,000 for $12 an hour $36,000 a year
$5-$10 bank roll $30,000 for $20 an hour $60,000 a year

Thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

I play 5/10, but am moving to 10/20 now, so I guess I have "only" 1500BB. I keep some of my roll at Canterbury, as I enjoy live play and don't want to become a complete recluse.

I made $50K as a teacher. That includes health insurance and retirement benefits. I figured I would need to make $70K playing poker for it to be a wash financially. That said, there is more to life than money. I do believe that I could make significantly more than that given the current poker climate, but also I needed a break from teaching.

I only 4-table. I get in about 300 hands/hour. I assumed I would play 35 hrs/week for 46 weeks. This would give me about 24K. Assuming rakeback was still around, that would be another 35K. My expenses are minimal, as I live meagerly. I could live on 2K/month.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you teach in Edina? Trying to put a face with a name.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you teach in Edina? Trying to put a face with a name.

[/ QUOTE ]

no

[SA125]

n/m

[Guernica4000]

Thanks for your reply Bob. Best of luck and remember that you have all the 2+2ers watching your back and helping when we can.

Please keep us up to date on your progress and may your Aces always hold.

Guernica

I'm just curious, but have you ever put in a 35 hr weak 4 tabling online poker? Or tried it for at least a month?

[goofball]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm just curious, but have you ever put in a 35 hr weak 4 tabling online poker? Or tried it for at least a month?

[/ QUOTE ]

[mungpo]

Good luck on going pro. Just don't kill yourself from playing 35 hrs/week of poker.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm just curious, but have you ever put in a 35 hr weak 4 tabling online poker? Or tried it for at least a month?

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

I dug through my PT database (I bought a new computer in mid-March), and from March 13 - May 13 I played 298.23 hours with an MT ratio of 3.71 (71,694 hands). I was teaching full time as well. 35 hours/week shouldn't be too tough for me.

[toss]

Thoughts about starting an after school club, training an army of .5/1 Party multitablers, take ALL of the profits, and forcing them to play 8 hours a day in sweat shop conditions?

Scary that just popped into my mind after learning you were a teacher. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

Sick, you'll kick much ass.

[ThaHero]

Good luck man. I've just started. Didn't take the same precautions as you, but I have a lot LESS at risk and am a lot LESS cautious. Your post almost made me feel like an idiot for attempting this(playing for a living, I don't like to say I'm going "pro") but I was confident when I considered and re-considered and re-re-(you get the idea) so I'm going to stand by my decision.

[lozen]

And if hes a teacher like my sister He definetely is overworked and underappreciated and underpaid.

[Sooga]

[ QUOTE ]


I play 5/10, but am moving to 10/20 now, so I guess I have "only" 1500BB. I keep some of my roll at Canterbury, as I enjoy live play and don't want to become a complete recluse.

I made $50K as a teacher. That includes health insurance and retirement benefits. I figured I would need to make $70K playing poker for it to be a wash financially. That said, there is more to life than money. I do believe that I could make significantly more than that given the current poker climate, but also I needed a break from teaching.

I only 4-table. I get in about 300 hands/hour. I assumed I would play 35 hrs/week for 46 weeks. This would give me about 24K. Assuming rakeback was still around, that would be another 35K. My expenses are minimal, as I live meagerly. I could live on 2K/month.

[/ QUOTE ]

I teach too, and playing poker part-time adds a good amount of supplemental income. That said, while it is true that at 50k as a teacher w/ benefits and ~70k pokering is about a wash, weren't you playing a good amount part-time while you were teaching? You would also have to factor this amount in addition to your estimate of 70k for it truly to be a wash and your standard of living to remain the same. Or is the 70k estimate already including the extra money you made off poker?

[TimM]

[ QUOTE ]
Basically anything above and beyond my 6 months living (plus $5K I intend to send to the IRS in a month) I consider my roll.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's an interesting way of looking at it. I tend to cut down the roll to 500BB for my current level, and then try to increase it to 500BB for the next level to move up.

In the end it's all just mental accounting, but I like to have both my savings and bankroll increase over time, not just the roll.

I am still not sure where to keep my bankroll going forward. My savings is in ING, and I don't really like the idea of keeping all 500-1000BB on one poker site. I was actually considering getting a second ING account or similar to store anything over 300BB (I use 200BB just to buy in to my tables).

I also need to think about investing, but I haven't the funds yet for that.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


I play 5/10, but am moving to 10/20 now, so I guess I have "only" 1500BB. I keep some of my roll at Canterbury, as I enjoy live play and don't want to become a complete recluse.

I made $50K as a teacher. That includes health insurance and retirement benefits. I figured I would need to make $70K playing poker for it to be a wash financially. That said, there is more to life than money. I do believe that I could make significantly more than that given the current poker climate, but also I needed a break from teaching.

I only 4-table. I get in about 300 hands/hour. I assumed I would play 35 hrs/week for 46 weeks. This would give me about 24K. Assuming rakeback was still around, that would be another 35K. My expenses are minimal, as I live meagerly. I could live on 2K/month.

[/ QUOTE ]

I teach too, and playing poker part-time adds a good amount of supplemental income. That said, while it is true that at 50k as a teacher w/ benefits and ~70k pokering is about a wash, weren't you playing a good amount part-time while you were teaching? You would also have to factor this amount in addition to your estimate of 70k for it truly to be a wash and your standard of living to remain the same. Or is the 70k estimate already including the extra money you made off poker?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was playing a good deal while teaching (30-35hrs/week) but I am not doing this purely to make money. Sure I can likely make more playing and teaching, but merely playing allows me to do other things with my time. IMO time>$.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Basically anything above and beyond my 6 months living (plus $5K I intend to send to the IRS in a month) I consider my roll.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's an interesting way of looking at it. I tend to cut down the roll to 500BB for my current level, and then try to increase it to 500BB for the next level to move up.

In the end it's all just mental accounting, but I like to have both my savings and bankroll increase over time, not just the roll.

I am still not sure where to keep my bankroll going forward. My savings is in ING, and I don't really like the idea of keeping all 500-1000BB on one poker site. I was actually considering getting a second ING account or similar to store anything over 300BB (I use 200BB just to buy in to my tables).

I also need to think about investing, but I haven't the funds yet for that.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am going to put it in a simple money market account until the end of the year. I want it liquid and not very volatile. At that time I will likely put a bunch in an IRA so that a) I have a tax write off and b) I have put some in retirement since I'll be out of the teaching pension for a year.