I guess I should fold?

[MaxPower]

Party 15/30 - 10 handed,

folded to the seat before the hijack, a loose (55%) and normally aggressive player who raises, I 3-bet on the button with JJ. The BB, a tight aggressive player (21/9/2) caps and we both call.

The flop is A /images/graemlins/spade.gifA /images/graemlins/diamond.gif3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

The BB bets, MP calls, I ....

[W. Deranged]

Do it the MaxPower way...

Anyway, think about it this way:

1. BB's bet into two raisers is scary.

2. MP's call with the pre-flop raiser behind him on a drawless board with a likely raise coming is even more scary.

What are the combined odds that both players are calling with pocket pairs less than JJ?

I think the answer is: Not high enough to merit you getting to the river here.

I predict a huge majority of the time if you call/raise this pot you will only have to deal with MP's cute "slowplay" turn raise.

So I think you can just fold here.

[Nick C]

I think I would call the flop, planning to fold to any turn aggression unless I improved.

If you folded instead, though, I think that's okay.

[weevil]

[ QUOTE ]
Party 15/30 - 10 handed,

folded to the seat before the hijack, a loose (55%) and normally aggressive player who raises, I 3-bet on the button with JJ. The BB, a tight aggressive player (21/9/2) caps and we both call.

The flop is A /images/graemlins/spade.gifA /images/graemlins/diamond.gif3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

The BB bets, MP calls, I ....

[/ QUOTE ]

15:1 closing the action, is it wrong to peel for the jack here? 22.5:1 to the turn, granted, but can't we make up > 4 BBs on average? Then there are the times one of them has AJ or AA. Probably doesn't matter whether you call or fold, except to avoid short-term variance.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Party 15/30 - 10 handed,

folded to the seat before the hijack, a loose (55%) and normally aggressive player who raises, I 3-bet on the button with JJ. The BB, a tight aggressive player (21/9/2) caps and we both call.

The flop is A /images/graemlins/spade.gifA /images/graemlins/diamond.gif3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

The BB bets, MP calls, I ....

[/ QUOTE ]

15:1 closing the action, is it wrong to peel for the jack here? 22.5:1 to the turn, granted, but can't we make up > 4 BBs on average? Then there are the times one of them has AJ or AA. Probably doesn't matter whether you call or fold, except to avoid short-term variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

A couple of things to note:

1. Assuming we can make up 4 bets is never obvious. Sure, an A will pay us off, but it's not all that likely that each opponent has an A and so we'll probably have to get a bunch of bets from one player.

2. Note that we actually need better than 22.5-1, because the most likely hands we are against (As) have numerous redraws against us on the river. Noting that they'll have around 6-7 redraws if we hit a J on the turn, we probably need more like 28-1 or so effective to play on.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Party 15/30 - 10 handed,

folded to the seat before the hijack, a loose (55%) and normally aggressive player who raises, I 3-bet on the button with JJ. The BB, a tight aggressive player (21/9/2) caps and we both call.

The flop is A /images/graemlins/spade.gifA /images/graemlins/diamond.gif3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

The BB bets, MP calls, I ....

[/ QUOTE ]

15:1 closing the action, is it wrong to peel for the jack here? 22.5:1 to the turn, granted, but can't we make up > 4 BBs on average? Then there are the times one of them has AJ or AA. Probably doesn't matter whether you call or fold, except to avoid short-term variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

A couple of things to note:

1. Assuming we can make up 4 bets is never obvious. Sure, an A will pay us off, but it's not all that likely that each opponent has an A and so we'll probably have to get a bunch of bets from one player.

2. Note that we actually need better than 22.5-1, because the most likely hands we are against (As) have numerous redraws against us on the river. Noting that they'll have around 6-7 redraws if we hit a J on the turn, we probably need more like 28-1 or so effective to play on.

[/ QUOTE ]

Something else to consider:

If no one has an ace, there's some chance we'll get two shots at a set if we simply call the flop.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Party 15/30 - 10 handed,

folded to the seat before the hijack, a loose (55%) and normally aggressive player who raises, I 3-bet on the button with JJ. The BB, a tight aggressive player (21/9/2) caps and we both call.

The flop is A /images/graemlins/spade.gifA /images/graemlins/diamond.gif3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

The BB bets, MP calls, I ....

[/ QUOTE ]

15:1 closing the action, is it wrong to peel for the jack here? 22.5:1 to the turn, granted, but can't we make up > 4 BBs on average? Then there are the times one of them has AJ or AA. Probably doesn't matter whether you call or fold, except to avoid short-term variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

A couple of things to note:

1. Assuming we can make up 4 bets is never obvious. Sure, an A will pay us off, but it's not all that likely that each opponent has an A and so we'll probably have to get a bunch of bets from one player.

2. Note that we actually need better than 22.5-1, because the most likely hands we are against (As) have numerous redraws against us on the river. Noting that they'll have around 6-7 redraws if we hit a J on the turn, we probably need more like 28-1 or so effective to play on.

[/ QUOTE ]

Something else to consider:

If no one has an ace, there's some chance we'll get two shots at a set if we simply call the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is sort of a different issue... if we think there's a serious chance no one has an A, then we're playing on for totally different reasons, it would seem.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Party 15/30 - 10 handed,

folded to the seat before the hijack, a loose (55%) and normally aggressive player who raises, I 3-bet on the button with JJ. The BB, a tight aggressive player (21/9/2) caps and we both call.

The flop is A /images/graemlins/spade.gifA /images/graemlins/diamond.gif3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

The BB bets, MP calls, I ....

[/ QUOTE ]

15:1 closing the action, is it wrong to peel for the jack here? 22.5:1 to the turn, granted, but can't we make up > 4 BBs on average? Then there are the times one of them has AJ or AA. Probably doesn't matter whether you call or fold, except to avoid short-term variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

A couple of things to note:

1. Assuming we can make up 4 bets is never obvious. Sure, an A will pay us off, but it's not all that likely that each opponent has an A and so we'll probably have to get a bunch of bets from one player.

2. Note that we actually need better than 22.5-1, because the most likely hands we are against (As) have numerous redraws against us on the river. Noting that they'll have around 6-7 redraws if we hit a J on the turn, we probably need more like 28-1 or so effective to play on.

[/ QUOTE ]

Something else to consider:

If no one has an ace, there's some chance we'll get two shots at a set if we simply call the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is sort of a different issue... if we think there's a serious chance no one has an A, then we're playing on for totally different reasons, it would seem.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know. We're still quite likely behind.

But two more shots at a set, if we get that, has some value.

I think a flop fold is okay, but I also think it's close.

[BigEndian]

With the action coming the way it did before the flop, it's possible for the BB to be capping a little light here thinking the original raise was a steal and your 3-bet is a re-steal.

What you're hoping for is 99-TT, KQ really - 3 hands unless I'm missing something. Tough one. Getting 14.5-1 I think I would raise the flop in the heat of battle looking for a cheap showdown or a couple shots at the miracle J.

- Jim

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
With the action coming the way it did before the flop, it's possible for the BB to be capping a little light here thinking the original raise was a steal and your 3-bet is a re-steal.

[/ QUOTE ]

While I agree in principle, the chances of this being the case seem very remote to me.

[MaxPower]

I didn't fold. I called the flop bet. The turn was a blank the BB bet again, MP called, and I folded. The river was another blank, the BB bet and MP folded.

I have no idea whether this was a good line, a waste of a small bet, or if I folded the best hand.

[Evan]

Fold the flop. If you don't want to fold then you have to raise (at some point), I guess, because BB has a better hand and that's the only way you're going to win the pot. Getting about 14.5:1 on the flop call I think too things will have to go right in order to make a case for implied odds on a set.

[stackm]

If one of your two opponents is the kind of player who will throw away Kings on the turn if you raise and then bet (fourth street), I say you raise. Sure, it'll cost you two small bets - three if you get reraised - but you've got a chance at what, a 20+ small bet pot? If your opponents are capable of laying down non-ace hands here, I think you've got to bump it up. You've got position working in your favor, at least.

Also, not sure what kind of 15/30 game you play in, but I've seen some games where you could easily have the best hand at this point anyway. Just don't call - don't think you can justify sticking around in this hand if you KNOW you'll have to go to showdown.